Chapter 4 Chapter Three: China Wants a Peaceful Rise

Since the Opium War in 1840, China has gradually become a colonial and semi-colonial abyss. In the face of the strong ships and guns of the Western powers, this ancient oriental country has become a lamb at the mercy of the Western powers.However, it was at this time that the Chinese nation began the struggle for national rejuvenation. Groups of people with lofty ideals unremittingly explored the road to save China, and countless Chinese sons and daughters sacrificed their precious lives for national independence.This great struggle for national rejuvenation achieved great victories in the 20th century.

The fate of China in the 20th century is closely related to the development of several major trends in the world and the changes in the international order.China today is not the same as it was at the beginning of the 20th century. In 1900, China was being invaded by the "Eight-Power Allied Forces", and national dignity and national sovereignty were unprecedentedly damaged.At that time, China's destiny was determined by the Western powers.But a hundred years later, China is already on the road of rejuvenation and rise, and it is in charge of its own destiny, which makes the world look at it with admiration.This process is largely the result of world trends, and the revival of China has made many world trends stronger.

The first is the national liberation movement.The struggle of the Chinese people against colonial aggression and oppression won a decisive victory in 1949.The victory of the Chinese revolution and the founding of New China are an important part of the national liberation movement after World War II, which cannot be stopped by any force.The United States tried to stop this process, so it supported Chiang Kai-shek to fight the civil war, and adopted a policy of containment, blockade, and isolation against China after the founding of New China, but it was in vain in the end.After the founding of New China, although there were many mistakes in domestic construction, its international status and influence continued to improve, and more and more countries established diplomatic relations with China and supported China's return to the United Nations.If there is no interference from the "Cultural Revolution", the time for China to return to the United Nations will be brought forward.Even so, many countries established diplomatic relations with China during the "Cultural Revolution".By June 1971, the number of countries in the world that had established diplomatic relations with China exceeded the number of countries that recognized the Kuomintang regime in Taiwan.This is an epoch-making development, which shows that China's return to the United Nations is not only unstoppable, but also not far away.

The second is multipolarity.China is not only a beneficiary of multi-polarization, but also an important driving force for this process.The founding of the People's Republic of China and its "leaning to one side" in diplomacy to the socialist camp headed by the Soviet Union greatly promoted the strengthening of the bipolar structure and greatly narrowed the scope for the United States to dominate.The contest between China and the United States in the Korean War was tantamount to a draw, but its symbolic significance was particularly important: the myth of American invincibility was shattered.Since the mid-1950s, China has pursued an independent foreign policy, gradually distanced itself from the Soviet bloc, and stood on the side of the third world in international affairs, thus making the power of the third world stronger.The foundation of the bipolar pattern began to shake.China's successful mastery of "two bombs and one satellite" has not only greatly enhanced its comprehensive strength, but also marked the end of the era of superpowers and Western developed countries monopolizing nuclear weapons.China's return to the United Nations is not only a great victory for China's diplomacy, but also a victory for the third world. The permanent members of the UN Security Council have a seat for the third world, and the status of China and the third world has been improved simultaneously.Nixon's statement of the "Five Centers of Power" shows that the power and status of China and the third world have been recognized by the United States.Kissinger believes that one of the important reasons why Nixon sought to "open up relations with China" was "to prove that the United States has not weakened its ability to control an international environment that is turning to multipolarity." It can be seen that China and the process of multipolarization are closely related.

The third is peace and development.The overall peaceful situation and development trend of the world after World War II provided a good external environment for the consolidation of China's independent status and economic and social development.At the same time, China has also made due contributions to world peace and development.China has actively advocated the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence since the 1950s and has become an important force for maintaining world peace.In the 1980s, China put forward the thesis that peace and development are the themes of the times, and took it as the most important basis for formulating foreign policies.China's economic development and reform and opening up have injected new vitality into the world economy. The Chinese economy has become an indispensable part of the world economy and an important force to promote the development of the world economy.The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China established "maintaining world peace and promoting common development" as the "purpose of China's foreign policy", highlighting that China must follow the historical trend of peace and development and make greater contributions to safeguarding the common interests of all mankind .

Finally, globalization.As a developing country, China is in a "non-central" position in the process of globalization and must face the challenges and risks brought about by globalization.However, China realizes that globalization is the trend of the world, so it must integrate into the trend of globalization and make full use of the development opportunities it brings.It is precisely because China conforms to the historical trend of globalization that it will have rapid economic development, will continue to narrow the gap with developed countries, and will continue to improve its overall national strength and maintain world peace. and play its due role in the international order.

In short, the revival and rise of China is inevitable, and it is the result of the combined effect of many world trends.The development of world trends does not depend on the will of any country, nation or group. Therefore, China's rise cannot be stopped by any force. Q: How do you see China's peaceful rise? Will China be as powerful as the United States? A: Potentially capable, but with many obstacles.China will face very difficult changes, mainly due to the fragile political system reform.In addition, there is economic growth, although it can absorb the migration of rural residents to big cities.You can have a healthy growth rate for several years.The economy grew by 8.5% last year, but you have to maintain close to that growth rate, so you don't have rising unemployment, you don't have social discontent.But there are some problems that China has to face, and they may delay the process of China's rise as a great power.But I think that sooner or later China is very likely to become an economic power, but eventually a military power.I mean that takes time.Before the United States became a military power, it had a history of decades of economic power.Japan is an economic power today, but not a military power.Therefore, we can imagine the situation in 2020. When China becomes a first-class economic power, it is still not a real US military competitor.That may take another 15-20 years.

Q: How do you see the prospects for the development of Sino-US relations after the rise of China? A: I agree with the statement that US-China relations have always been ups and downs.In the 1970s, relations improved.That phase passes and the relationship turns sour.From the US point of view there are two problems.One is Taiwan; the other is China's rise.The latter is not necessarily a problem, but historically, when other countries start to rise, the existing great powers feel uncomfortable.So the focus is on controlling that tendency. Question: What do you think of the realist theory that the rise of great powers causes international conflicts?

A: I don't think so.However, China has indeed grown rapidly in the past 20 years.While many things could affect its development, if China's growth continues, it won't take long for China to become a significant power, even at half the growth rate of the 1990s.There is such a possibility.But another possibility is dangerous.If there is turmoil in China, if there is economic chaos and political turmoil, it will be very dangerous.I'm a pessimist and I think bad things can happen. Q: In your opinion, what impact will China's peaceful rise have on the world? A: I just want to talk about the impact of China's rise on China?Obviously, that would bring huge changes to China.The first is the change of people.Your generation is completely different from the generation before you were educated.You have traveled abroad, you have independence.You do nothing but read and write books, and you will claim to be true citizens.That's a huge challenge.In my opinion, China has everything it takes to be an advanced country.If China keeps changing, China will become one of the leading countries in the world.Of course, as early as the late Qing Dynasty, China began to work hard in this direction.At that time, you were extremely optimistic about the Westernization Movement.Actually you have many changes, great changes.Electoral reforms, economic reforms, and even plans for political reforms.But they all failed.During the Republic, you had rapid economic growth and your military strength increased enormously.

The question is why past reforms failed.The failure, I believe, is that power is held by a small, closed, self-empowering group.You have a Manchu court, which is controlled by the Manchu family, and other Chinese cannot join the Manchu family.Under the Kuomintang, you have family groups.Later, when the Communist Party came into existence, it was not clear who ruled and how it ruled.All three are separate from the masses of the people.For the vast majority of ordinary people, they are not members of the party, and the Communist Party is a separate entity from them. After more than 100 years of hard work and struggle, the Chinese nation has not only won national independence and stood among the nations of the world, but also embarked on the road of prosperity and peaceful rise through reform and opening up.At the beginning of the new century, China has once again become the focus of the world. The laurels of "world factory", "emerging big market", "engine of world economy" and so on are worn on China's head.However, China is not blinded by these laurels, nor does it revel in its achievements.China is advancing on the established path and will basically realize modernization by the middle of this century and become a prosperous, strong, democratic and civilized socialist country.

Q: Some American scholars, such as Mearsheimer, believe that it is impossible for China to achieve a real rise. What do you think of this issue? A: It depends on what kind of rise China takes. In modern history, there are several examples of failed rises, including France after the Great Revolution at the end of the 18th century, Germany and Japan in the first half of the 20th century, and the Soviet Union after World War II.France, Germany, and Japan all made fundamental mistakes, which led to the failure of their rise and changed their subsequent development paths.The Soviet Union avoided this mistake to some extent by engaging in strategic competition with the United States and never allowing this competition to turn into open war.However, the Soviet Union would not have been immune to this error had it not been for its vast territory.Moreover, the Soviet Union was not strong enough to engage in the above-mentioned competition. If China follows this pattern of rising, where it becomes powerful and then seeks to acquire more resources, territory, and whatever else it wants, then it will start fighting with its neighbors and When other great powers clash, it will repeat the mistakes of history. There are also examples of successful rise in history, two of which are more typical.First is the United States.When the United States rose in the 19th century, the great powers were concentrated in Europe, but at that time, these great powers financed the rise of the United States, and they provided capital to the United States.In a sense, they participated in America's rise.The United States did not come into direct conflict with the great European powers during its rise, but it did come into conflict with a smaller power—Spain, and there was a Spanish-American War.The United States also fought wars with Mexico for expansion.But these are secondary.The United States did not disrupt the world order.Later, the United States was involved in two world wars, but it was not because of the rise of the United States, not because of the rise of the "new power", but because the "old power" became the opponent and fought first.This is the fundamental difference between the rise of the United States and the rise of France, Germany, and Japan.The rise of the United States has basically not disrupted the international order, nor has it clashed with major powers. The second example is Europe after World War II.My view of Europe as a "big country" is based on the fact that it is no longer the "Old Europe" of many conflicting countries, but has formed a European Union and gradually developed a European consciousness that seeks a common identity.In a sense, the EU has created a new power that is equivalent to a great power.People are now discussing whether the United States is willing to get involved in a fundamental confrontation with Europe?My own view is that confrontation is emerging on some fronts.Of course, there is also extensive cooperation between the US and Europe.Although you can say that Europe has risen or Japan has risen after World War II, both are beneficial to the United States and have not led to confrontation with the fundamental interests of the United States.Therefore, it is wrong to assume that the rise of a "new great power" will inevitably disrupt the international order.Whether the rise of great powers will disrupt the international order depends partly on the policies they pursue, and partly depends on how much they accept the existing international order and how much they want to revolutionize the international order.For example, France after the 1789 revolution basically did not accept the European order.The United States did not do that, and neither did Europe or Japan after World War II.They did not overthrow the existing international order. Q: The question is, if China takes the path of peaceful rise, will the United States accept it? A: The question of whether the rise of China will inevitably lead to conflict with the United States, the simple answer is that if a conflict occurs, it is unnecessary.It depends on the wisdom of both parties.If China adopts the right policies and the US responds correctly to the fact that China is getting stronger, there will be no conflict.There are precedents in history.The current US-China counterterrorism cooperation is having a profound effect, because China's rise is a long process, during which other issues are becoming more important.When analyzing this problem, we must examine all kinds of problems together.For example, in the case of Japan and Germany, along with expansion, they want to control raw materials and energy.It is clear that China is starting to generate huge energy needs.It is foreseeable that China will seek energy supplies from the outside world.But if China takes the approach of investing in energy in Indonesia and the Gulf, and improving relations with countries in the Middle East, trying to make long-term, far-sighted arrangements, and building pipelines with Russia to the Far East, and other such things, So while China solves the energy problem, it will not bring a revolutionary challenge to the international order.Therefore, it is not inevitable that China's rise will bring conflicts with other countries.In particular, since the current international order is open and flexible and cannot be controlled by individual countries, the rules of its game must be set by those players who are willing to abide by the rules.A new member, if it obeys the rules, is not excluded from the system.China's accession to the World Trade Organization is an example.Therefore, there is no reason to believe that China's rise cannot be accommodated by the international order. In order to achieve this goal, the Chinese leaders have planned strategic steps, that is, in the first two decades of this century, they will concentrate their efforts on comprehensively building a higher level of moderately prosperous society that will benefit more than one billion people.At the same time, Chinese leaders put forward the important idea of ​​"a period of strategic opportunity".The report of the Sixteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out: "Looking at the overall situation, the first two decades of the 21st century are an important period of strategic opportunity for our country that must be firmly grasped and can make a lot of difference." Literally, this " The "period of opportunity" is no small matter.The first is "strategic" rather than "tactical" or any other period of opportunity.Since it is strategic, it involves the overall situation and affects long-term development.The second is "important", not general, dispensable.Once again, it is "can do a lot", not "do nothing" or "do a little".In the end, it is "must be grasped tightly", not "can be grasped or not" or "grasp but not tightly". The Communist Party of China has always been a revolutionary optimist, who can see the light and achievements in difficult times to boost morale.Of course, it is indeed a bit extreme to shout "the enemy is in chaos every day, and we are getting better every day" like during the "Cultural Revolution" period.Since China embarked on the road of reform, opening up and modernization, the Chinese Communist Party has always been good at seeing the favorable side of the international and domestic situation.During the Cold War, when the United States and the Soviet Union were fighting for hegemony and the arms race was fierce, Deng Xiaoping saw that the power of world peace was rising and surpassed the power of war. World wars could be postponed or even avoided. Peace and development are two major issues facing the world. Issues, China can concentrate on modernization.When the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were undergoing drastic changes and Western countries jointly sanctioned China, Deng Xiaoping believed that there were many contradictions in the world and many factors that were beneficial to China. China should adhere to the socialist road and the policy of reform and opening up without wavering.However, it is probably the first time that the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China explicitly proposed a "period of strategic opportunities". Obviously, the "period of strategic opportunity" is a conclusion drawn after scientific judgment on the "overall situation".So where are China's "strategic opportunities" in the next 20 years? The first is domestic economic development.Judging from international experience, the per capita GDP reaching US$1,000 is an important strategic starting point for economic take-off.At present, China stands at this starting point.From the perspective of market demand, the huge domestic market is the biggest strategic advantage for rapid economic development.The size of the market capacity and the quality of the market operation have a decisive impact on whether the economy can achieve long-term prosperity.China has a population of nearly 1.3 billion. With the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the multi-level and diversified market demand is expanding at an alarming rate. It has not only become one of the world's largest commodity markets, but also is becoming the world's largest investment market. one.From the perspective of human resources, human capital with great potential is the most important strategic resource for sustainable economic development.According to the new development theory, the factors affecting growth and welfare include human capital, physical capital and natural capital.From 1982 to 2000, China's total human capital stock has increased from 2.882 billion person-years to 6.314 billion person-years, an increase of 1.19 times, and its proportion in the world's total human capital stock has also increased from 17.5% to 25%.In the first 20 years of this century, China had the highest proportion of working-age population, the lowest proportion of dependent population, the fastest increase in per capita years of education, and the largest population transfer from rural to urban areas, all of which will help to enhance the advantages of human resources.From the perspective of technological development, the new technological era will provide more strategic choices for China's leapfrog development.The new scientific and technological revolution is in the ascendant, and China has an obvious latecomer advantage, which provides the possibility for leapfrog development.At present, new major breakthroughs are brewing in fields such as information technology, biotechnology, and new material technology.According to the idea of ​​"doing something, not doing something", China can completely own a batch of independent intellectual property rights in several key scientific and technological fields and the frontiers of technological development, forming a new strong economic growth point, which will definitely have a positive impact on economic development and social changes. have an immeasurable impact.From the perspective of economic structure, the global shift of manufacturing industry is conducive to the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure.Driven by economic globalization and new technological revolution, developed countries and newly industrialized countries have transferred their manufacturing industries, which have lost their comparative advantages, to developing countries.Regardless of the investment environment or market potential, China has both the conditions to develop high-tech industries and the advantages to undertake a new round of international industrial transfer on a large scale.Seizing this opportunity, speeding up the process of informatization, and transforming the manufacturing industry with informatization will help China expand its economic scale, adjust its economic layout, and optimize its industrial structure.From the perspective of opening up to the outside world, joining the WTO has expanded the strategic space for China's economic development.Joining the WTO provides a stable foreign economic and trade environment. China can make full use of foreign markets and resources, participate in international division of labor and cooperation more extensively, and better share the benefits of economic globalization.At the same time, joining the WTO requires the transformation of government functions and compliance with international economic and trade rules, which can push China to further deepen reforms and further eliminate institutional obstacles that hinder the development of productive forces. The second is the international environment.The theme of the era of peace and development has not changed, and the development trend of economic globalization and world multi-polarization has not changed.In the coming period, the basic trend of the international situation will still be overall peace, local wars, overall relaxation, local tensions, overall stability, and local turmoil. It is unlikely that there will be confrontation in the form of all-out war among major powers. It is particularly worth noting that Sino-US relations are an important fulcrum of the "period of strategic opportunities".Since Sino-US relations have a great impact on China's external environment and are a key link in China's overall foreign strategy, China has always regarded Sino-US relations as the top priority of China's foreign relations.If this "top priority" shows a major regression or even reversal within 20 years, then the "strategic opportunity period" will be unsustainable. Sino-US relations depend to a large extent on changes in the US global strategy and China strategy.Judging from the current situation, for quite a long time to come, the United States will continue to implement the national security strategy with anti-terrorism and anti-expansion as its top priority. To this end, it will continue to seek the cooperation of world powers including China. The United States will continue to Treat China as a "constructive partner" rather than a "strategic competitor". The US National Security Strategy Report in 2002 shows that the US new security strategy has a quite different strategic positioning for China compared with Russia, but it no longer regards China as a "strategic competitor", but proposes that "the US Seek to establish a constructive relationship with China”, “The United States welcomes the emergence of a strong, peaceful and prosperous China.” When the Bush administration came to power, it positioned China as a “strategic competitor”.In the "Four-Year Defense Review Report" released on September 30, 2001, China was still regarded as a possible "military opponent with abundant resources." , anti-terrorism, promoting peace on the Korean peninsula, rebuilding Afghanistan and other areas can carry out fruitful cooperation.The new security strategy also emphasizes that the current annual trade volume between the United States and China has exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars, and China has become the fourth largest trading partner of the United States; China has now joined the World Trade Organization, which will further promote the export of American companies to China, and Create more jobs in the United States.Under the framework of the new security strategy, the basic orientation of the US policy toward China is to seek cooperation rather than confrontation.Compared with the "engagement policy" of the Clinton period, this kind of China policy based on cooperation has more positive factors. The essence of the "engagement policy" is to influence and change China through contact and communication, or to "evolve" and "Westernize" China, and at the same time obtain other interests.The "cooperation policy" downplays the color of "evolving" or "Westernizing" China, and its main connotation is to cooperate with China in anti-terrorism and anti-proliferation as well as economic and regional security. From China's point of view, the adjustment of the US security strategy provides new opportunities for China to improve its relations with the US.First of all, the United States has made anti-terrorism and anti-proliferation a core task, thereby suspending the process of moving the global strategic center of gravity eastward, which has reduced China's strategic pressure.Second, the United States is actively seeking China's cooperation in anti-terrorism and anti-proliferation, thus adding another cornerstone to the development of Sino-US relations, and this cornerstone is likely to remain for a long time.Third, the United States places the maintenance of domestic security at a prominent position in its security strategy, thereby lowering the status of promoting democracy and human rights, which is conducive to easing differences between China and the United States on issues such as democracy and human rights, and reducing friction.Fourth, the U.S. "cooperation policy" toward China helps curb the development of "Taiwan independence" forces.The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is linked to its policy toward China. If the Bush administration wants to seek cooperation with China, it must exercise restraint in the development of relations with Taiwan. conditions.The stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait will help reduce the chances of "Taiwan independence" forces interfering with and damaging Sino-US relations. Of course, the adjustment of the US national security strategy is only a phased one.After the anti-terrorism and anti-expansion tasks are completed or come to an end, the United States may still pick up the national security strategy before "9.11". At that time, the United States' strategy and policy toward China will have substantial changes. In this way, China's "strategic opportunity period" can only be a period of time, not indefinite or long-term.In addition, the negative aspects of the current U.S. national security strategy, such as the "preemptive strike" military strategy, the more obvious tendency towards redemptionism and unilateralism, and the intensification of military expansion by taking the opportunity of counter-terrorism, especially in China's surrounding areas, etc. China's security environment presents certain challenges.How to resolve the influence of these negative factors and make full use of the opportunity period to develop Sino-US relations to a new level is crucial to the development of Sino-US relations during and after the "strategic opportunity period".A good Sino-US relationship is itself an important factor restricting the US strategy toward China from sliding toward "enemyizing" China. In short, Sino-US relations are an important fulcrum of the "period of strategic opportunities", and the "period of strategic opportunities" has created excellent opportunities for the development of Sino-US relations; And then create conditions for the creation of China's external environment and the formation of a new "strategic opportunity period". Q: Do you think that after the period of strategic opportunities, can Sino-US relations continue to develop steadily? A: I think we probably want that.But I tend to look at this problem realistically.I am not a dreamer.We need to be clear that there are many serious differences between the United States and China.So, we have an opportunity and should use this opportunity to improve our relationship, but we should not have unrealistic hopes.We cannot ignore that some important differences still exist between our two countries.I remember only three or four years ago, in 1999, a very famous Chinese scholar criticized the US "dream of hegemony".It was also the year that China's People's Daily compared the United States to Hitler's Germany in an editorial.Comparing America to Hitler's Germany is extremely disrespectful and quite offensive.That was not so long ago.Of course, many important events happened in the world after this, such as "9.11", which greatly changed the United States and China's view of the world, and their view of each other.But, in essence, many important differences between the two countries have not changed.The fundamental issues in our relationship haven't changed.You know, in the history of U.S.-China relations, especially in the past six or seven decades, the U.S. and China used to be very friendly, and the U.S. and China had a very strong relationship when there was a third party that both sides considered an enemy, Like in the 30s and 40s, obviously Japan, and in the 70s and 80s, we identified the Soviet Union as a common problem.Right now, we both point to terrorism.Perhaps there are other transnational threats as common enemies.So at the moment, I can see each other as potential partners.However, when we do not have a clearly identifiable common enemy, we run into trouble. In the 50's we had a seriously bloody war. In the 60s, China was involved in the Vietnam War and supported Vietnam.After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90s, the relationship between the two countries was not good, and there was a difficult time in the 90s.So, history reminds us that we have a chance, but a fragile one.History has shown us that America and China can quickly be at war if we are not careful.So, I am only cautiously optimistic about the future of US-China relations.During the opportunity that comes, we really need to work hard to keep it away from the serious problems that continue to exist. In the history of the world, it seems to have become a rule that the rise of some countries will impact the current international order and structure, and then trigger conflicts and wars among countries.However, this law cannot be applied to the present world. The fundamental reason is that the times are different, and the world today is in an era of peace and development.Seeking peace and development is the trend of the world.The Chinese nation has achieved great success on the road of national rejuvenation because it conforms to the trend of the world. Only by continuing to conform to the trend of the world can the Chinese nation truly rise among the nations of the world. Throughout the history of the world, rising countries have three stages of development in dealing with the relationship with the outside world.The first stage is before the 20th century.At that time, there were many so-called unowned lands in the world, and some ancient countries were still in the pre-modern stage.Rising powers mainly expand to these unclaimed lands and backward countries, and expand their own interests by launching a series of colonial wars.The second stage is from the beginning of the 20th century to the end of World War II.As Lenin analyzed, by the beginning of the 20th century, "the largest capitalist powers had divided the territories of the world."If a newly rising power expands outward, it means seizing colonies and spheres of influence from the original power, which will inevitably arouse resistance from the original power.This is the main source of the two world wars.The third stage is from the end of World War II to the present.Some countries have risen through peaceful competition. The two world wars have brought profound lessons to countries all over the world.People all over the world who have suffered so much from war yearn for world peace and hate war.Seeking peace has become the common aspiration of people all over the world, and it has also become one of the main governance goals of most governments in the world.Peace has gradually become a major theme of the times.At the same time, major countries in the world have realized the dangers of war, especially in the nuclear age, a world war means a nuclear war, and a nuclear war means the destruction of the world. Therefore, the world's major powers must cooperate to prevent a new world war. The outbreak of the war.The birth of the United Nations, the reconciliation of France and Germany, and the beginning of the integration process in Western Europe are all closely related to the pursuit of peace.In preventing the outbreak of a new world war, all countries in the world have common interests and share responsibilities.Under such circumstances, it is no longer possible for newly rising countries to expand their own interests through outward military expansion. The only way for newly rising countries to obtain the conditions and resources for further development is to conduct economic cooperation with other countries. In the cooperation, mutual benefit, learn from each other's strengths, develop together and achieve a win-win situation.Postwar Western Europe, Japan and other newly modernized countries took this path.Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China has followed the same path.If China wants to continue to develop in the future, it can only continue to follow this path.This is not only in the fundamental interests of China, but also in the interests of all countries in the world.Just as Jiang Zemin pointed out: "China's commitment to developing good-neighborly and friendly cooperation with neighboring countries is not an expedient measure, but an inevitable choice made in line with the requirements of the times and based on the long-term interests of the people of China and the people of the region." Although what he said It is China's cooperation with neighboring countries, but it is also completely suitable for cooperation with all countries in the world. Another major trend facing the rise of the Chinese nation is globalization. Globalization includes multiple levels such as economy, politics, culture, and geography. As German scholar Ulrich Beck said, “Accompanied by global capitalism is a process of cultural and political globalization.”However, economic globalization is the core content of globalization, so globalization usually refers to economic globalization.Although the current academic circles have different understandings and definitions of the concept of economic globalization, there is consensus on its spiritual essence.The so-called economic globalization refers to such a trend in the development of the world economy, that is, with the formation of a unified world market, the continuous advancement of science and technology, the vigorous development of multinational companies, the rapid growth of international trade and the rapid expansion of the international financial market , the whole world is becoming more and more closely integrated, and various regions, countries and nations are interdependent and indivisible. The process of globalization should be counted from the discovery of the American New World by Columbus in 1492.The great geographical discovery not only proves that the earth is a "sphere", that is, what it is, but also makes "people of different regions and colors of the world realize for the first time that they live in the same place as those who are different from their own race." On a sphere. Since then, the communication and mentality among human beings have been branded with the brand of globalization: foreign countries are also part of the earth, and this place and the other place are inseparable; Mind and heart are the same.” More importantly, the great geographical discovery promoted the development of international trade, which led to the formation of the world market, and international trade directly promoted the occurrence of the industrial revolution.Since then, human society has entered the era of "interdependence and interaction" as Marx and Engels said. Since then, the process of economic globalization has experienced two climaxes: the first climax was from the early 19th century to the early 20th century, during which it experienced two scientific and technological revolutions and industrial revolutions; the second climax began in the 1970s and is still in progress. From the end of the first climax to the appearance of the second climax, there are three cycles. The first cycle is at the economic level, from unification to division and back to unification of the world market (unification-division-unification).By the middle of the nineteenth century, a world market had taken shape.正如马克思恩格斯在《共产党宣言》中所论述的：“资本主义，由于开拓了世界市场，使一切国家的生产和消费都成为世界性的了。……资产阶级挖掉了工业脚下的民族基础。古老的民族工业消失了。……过去那种地方和民族的自给自足和闭关自守状态，被各民族的各方面的互相往来和各方面的互相依赖所代替了。”到19世纪末20世纪，随着第二次科技革命和产业革命的展开，资本主义由自由竞争阶段发展到了垄断阶段，随着殖民地被瓜分完毕，资本主义势力渗透到了全球的每一个角落，世界市场已经包容了全世界几乎所有的国家和地区。与世界市场形成相伴随，“资产阶级在它不到一百年的阶级统治中所创造的生产力，比过去一切世代创造的全部生产力还要多，还要大。” 从第一次世界大战到20世纪70年代末，是全球化进程的低潮，全球化进程严重受阻。两次世界大战和30年代大危机都是这种低潮的表现，特别是社会主义国家的出现使资本主义的一统天下被打破。从市场的角度看，世界被一分为二，出现了两个平行的世界市场：一方是资本主义的自由市场经济，另一方是苏联、经互会的计划经济，双方基本是互相独立的；从生产力的发展水平看，直到70年代之前，世界的科技水平与生产能力并不比20世纪初高出多少。 始于70年代的第三次科技革命和产业革命极大地推动了全球化的进程，使全球化进入一个新的高潮。这次经济全球化高潮主要有如下几方面表现，并且各个方面互相促进、影响。第一，世界贸易迅速增长，在世界经济中的地位越来越重要。自80年代以来，跨越国界的国际贸易几乎成倍增长，在世界生产总额中所占的比例在1993年为17％，而1950年只占7％，1973年占12％。世界贸易组织总干事长鲁杰罗说过：“在过去6年里，世界贸易增长率是世界经济增长率的3倍，经济全球化是被贸易发展推着走的一列高速火车。”第二，跨国公司迅猛发展，实力越来越大，并成为推动经济全球化的重要因素。据统计，到1994年，世界已有4万家跨国公司，其中25万家子公司渗透到世界各个国家和地区的几乎所有的经济领域和部门。它们控制着40％的世界生产和60％的世界贸易。这些跨国公司进行跨越国界和地区界限的生产和经营，实施全球范围内最佳资源配置和生产要素组合，极大地促进了经济全球化。越来越多的产品很难说是哪一个国家生产的，而只能说是“某某公司生产”。“国际性产品”日益增多。第三，资本金融市场急剧膨胀，成为经济全球化的核心内容。据统计，1993年全球流动的私人资本达3万亿美元，是1990年的3倍。全球外汇市场平均日交易额从1989年的6200亿美元扩大到1997年的1.5万亿美元。全球外汇市场的资金以极快的速度运动着，这一方面有助于世界范围内优化资本配置，促进世界经济和贸易的发展，另一方面也使国际金融风险增大。 在这次全球化大潮中，适者生存。以苏联为代表的计划经济体系由于不能适应全球化浪潮以及与之相伴随的新科技革命浪潮的需要，结果在同以美国为代表的西方国家的竞争中败下阵来。从某种意义上说，苏联失败的真正罪魁祸首是全球化。以苏联东欧剧变为标志，冷战结束，世界市场又归统一，虽然中国等国家仍然在坚持社会主义制度，但也都在融入统一的世界市场，而不是游离于其外，更不是自成一体。从生产力的发展水平看，在第二次全球化高潮中，世界的科技水平和生产能力有了质的飞跃。 第二个循环是在意识形态层面上，由自由主义占主导地位到多种意识形态并立，又到自由主义占主导（自由主义——多种意识形态——自由主义）。1848年革命后，资本主义在欧洲和北美完全占居统治地位，与之相应，资本主义的主流意识形态——自由主义——也在欧美占居统治地位，以后随着资本主义的扩张，自由主义意识形态又传播到其它地区。原来代表封建主义残余的意识形态如英国的保守主义逐渐革心换面，吸纳了自由主义的要素，向自由主义靠拢。虽然社会主义思潮已经在欧洲兴起，但还不足以挑战自由主义的地位。到了20世纪，自由主义受到了严峻的挑战，主要来自于科学社会主义、法西斯主义和民主社会主义。科学社会主义由理论到实践，曾一度成为十几个国家的官方意识形态；法西斯主义曾猖獗一时，扫荡了大半个欧洲；民主社会主义在二战后曾一度相当发达，成为西欧国家的主流意识形态之一。然而经过近百年的较量，还是自由主义独领风骚。法西斯主义随着反西斯战争的结束而衰亡，现在仍处在如过街老鼠的境地；民主社会主义已经脱胎换骨，不仅实现了向社会民主主义的转变，而且还举起了“第三条道路”的大旗，向自由主义靠拢；科学社会主义处于明显的低潮。难怪弗朗西斯·福山放言“历史的终结”。在福山看来，苏联东欧的剧变不只是冷战的结束，也是意识形态进化的终点；西方的自由民主已经战胜包括共产主义和法西斯主义在内的各种极权主义，已经成为人类政治的最佳选择，也是最后的形式；自由民主是人类进步的大方向，“自由民主的'理念'已不能再改良了”。 第三个循环是政治格局层面上，由英国霸权到多强并立到两极争霸再到美国霸权（霸权——多强和两极——霸权）。直到本世纪初，英国的霸权地位还是非常稳固的。然而，第一次世界大战改变了这种局面，英、德、美、苏、日几强并立，英国霸权实际上已经不复存在；第二次世界大战后出现了美苏争霸的局面，美国霸权只是在西方世界能够成立。冷战结束，美国独霸世界的局面才真正出现，虽然存在着多强制衡，但多强中的任何一强都无力也不愿挑战美国的霸权，这与20世纪前的情形非常相似，虽然有德、法、俄、美等强国，但都构不成对英国霸权的挑战。 以上三个循环之间的关系是非常密切的，实际上是一个过程的三个层面，这个过程就是全球化。经济全球化是基础，全球化的意识形态就是自由主义，而霸权国家则是全球化进程中居最优势地位的国家。非常有趣的是，两个霸权国家都是英语国家，都是基督教新教占优势地位的国家，都是自由主义根深蒂固的国家，都是自由市场经济最为发达的国家。 全球化的这种发展态势决定，发达国家，特别是霸权国家是全球化的最大受益者，而广大的发展中国家则处于相对不利的地位。但是，全球化也为发展中国家实现快速发展提供了机遇。对于处在全球化进程非核心地带的广大发展中国家来说，最好的选择就是融入全球化大潮中去，充分利用全球化所提供的发展机遇，实现快速发展。特别是像中国这样的大国，只有融入全球化大潮，同全球化的要求相适应而不是相脱离，才能够实现崛起，才能在未来的多极世界中占有一席之地。固步自封、闭关锁国，游离于全球化大潮之外，只能是丧失发展机遇，进而拉大同发达国家的距离，最后重新沦落到落后挨打的境地，甚至被开除球籍。要想融入全球化大潮中去，中国必须走和平发展和崛起道路，长期坚持和平外交政策，舍此别无它途。如果走向外进行军事扩张之路，必然会遭到处于全球化进程核心地带国家的抵制。这些国家从自己的根本利益出发，会阻止、干扰中国融入全球化，使中国不能享受全球化所带来的发展机遇。全球化将是一个长期的进程，这就决定中国必须长期坚持和平外交政策，以和平的方式实现崛起。