Chapter 7 Introduction How can China catch up with the United States

There are too many people now predicting that China will surpass the United States based on GDP indicators. As I said in the opening chapter, it does not make much sense for GDP to surpass the United States. To say that the real value is that the per capita GDP surpasses the United States. There is basically no suspense that China's overall GDP surpasses that of the United States. The most pessimistic estimate will not exceed 20 years, and it will become a reality. This person who has studied arithmetic in junior high school can calculate it. In 2009, my country's GDP was 33,535.3 billion yuan, and the annual average exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar was about 6.83. If converted into U.S. dollars, the GDP in 2009 was about 4.91 trillion U.S. dollars.The GDP of the United States in 2009 was 14.33 trillion US dollars.We can most conservatively assume that China's annual growth rate will be 8% in the future.As for the economic growth rate of the United States, we can also make an estimate based on its growth rate in the past ten years:

1998 4.2% 1999 4.5% 2000 3.7% 2001 0.8% 2002 1.6% 2003 2.5% 2004 3.6% 2005 2.9% 2.8% in 2006 2007 2.0% 2008 1.1% Based on these data, it may be assumed that the annual growth rate of the United States will be 2% in the future, then it is easy to calculate that China will surpass the United States in about 20 years. Of course, this is a very conservative estimate. On the one hand, China's annual growth rate is basically more than 8%, while that of the United States is often lower than 2%.The latest forecast on this issue so far was released by internationally renowned accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers on January 20, 2010. They predict that it will only take 10 years for China to surpass the United States in 2020 and become the world's largest economy.It also predicts that by 2030 the ranking of the top ten global economies will be: China, the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France, and the United Kingdom.

According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2008, the top ten economies in the world are: the United States, Japan, China, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Russia, Spain, and Brazil.John Hawksworth, head of PwC's macroeconomics department, said: "According to forecasts, China may become the world's largest economy as early as 2020, and it is likely to continue to lead the United States by 2030." By 2030, China, the US, the EU and India will account for 19%, 16%, 15% and 9% of global GDP respectively; compared to 13%, 20%, 21% and 5% in 2010.Things have become very clear, and there is basically no suspense for China to surpass the United States in terms of economic aggregate within a decade or two.

Of course, this is far from my so-called concept of China catching up with the United States. In the true sense, China catching up with the United States does not mean that the total GDP exceeds that of the United States. So, how can China truly catch up with the United States? It must be that China has learned the logic of the United States (which is also the logic of all contemporary developed countries) to be rich and powerful, and acted according to this logic, and has achieved comparable achievements to the United States. Then we can say that China has really caught up with the United States .Specifically, the following points should be achieved:

First of all, in terms of hard indicators, China's per capita GDP must reach a level comparable to that of the United States. This is the most basic indicator for economically catching up with the United States. The total amount is meaningless. Only the per capita symbolizes the wealth of each citizen and is directly linked to the wealth of the nation.The current per capita GDP of the United States is about 40,000 US dollars, while that of China is close to 4,000 US dollars, and the difference is quite wide.The so-called per capita GDP comparable to that of the United States does not necessarily mean that China has to reach 40,000 US dollars. China has a large population, more than four times that of the United States. It is not easy for China's per capita annual GDP to reach half of that of the United States.

Second, China's virtual industry or soft power must be able to compete with the United States. That is to say, Chinese brands are world brands, and all parts of the world are proud of owning Chinese products; Chinese movies are popular all over the world; Chinese culture has become one of the mainstream cultures in the world; Become an international currency; China becomes the center of technological innovation in the world. China's catching up with the United States means that China, like the United States today, can rely on brands and patented technologies to collect "rents" from all over the world, and can live affluently without production; it can let its citizens enjoy the printing of money just like the United States today The dividends of shopping; like today's America, the world's wealth can be concentrated in the country through finance; like today's America, the global box office revenue of a movie is enough to build an aircraft carrier.

We must clearly realize this point. Developed countries must let the people of other countries produce labor for them, while most of their nationals are engaged in leisure and low-intensity industries, and at the same time they can live a life of extremely affluent material.This is a saying we often hear that the tertiary industry in developed countries accounts for more than 70%. The so-called tertiary industry is just a trick of pretending. Still have to drive to Laogao.If you go to the bathroom, I will open the door for you. The income from tips must be equal to the daily salary of an ordinary worker in a developing country. This is a developed country.To really catch up with the United States, China must reach this point.

China must have a strong virtual industry, so that the citizens can live a leisurely life, free most of the people from material production and labor, and let them all "serve" each other and get high wages. Where do our material products come from? It's very simple. Just like the United States, we use imaginary things to fool around the world.I am not joking when I say this, but to tell you the facts quite seriously.There is no such developed country in the world, that is, their material products are all produced by themselves, and they rely on the labor of their own people to achieve material abundance. Such a country cannot be a developed country, because engaging in material production itself is hard work. , a country where most of the people in the country are working hard, how can it be called a developed country?

It is very difficult for China to become a developed country. If it continues to develop according to the current model, it may be even more difficult to catch up with the United States. What is the difficulty for China to catch up with the United States? It's very simple. Internally speaking, China's economy is too real, and it can't play fake games. The so-called Central America means that the Americans have firmly entangled China with imaginary things, and let us act like cattle to provide them with endless material wealth. The United States is actually a shell economy that prints money for shopping, and this shell economy can only be sustained by China.

Only when we deeply realize this point can we overthrow the United States and catch up with the United States.