Chapter 2 When will China catch up with the United States

How rich are Americans?Just look at the standard of living of their poor to see. In 2003, among the so-called 30 million poor people in the United States, 73% owned cars, and nearly one-third of them had two or more cars; 99% had refrigerators; 75% used washing machines; 73% had electric ovens; 97% have color TV sets, and 55% of them have two or more color TV sets.Among these poor people, 46% own their own houses, with an average value of more than 100,000 US dollars; 76% of households are equipped with air conditioners.The average home has three bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, and a garage.The poor don't pay a penny for medical treatment themselves, and the government pays for it all.

Let's look at the poverty line in the United States.More than 10% of people in the United States live below the poverty line. As long as they meet the low-income standards, American citizens or permanent residents can apply for food stamps from the government.The maximum amount of food stamps that families of different demographics can receive per month is as follows: $155 for a family of 1, $284 for a family of 2, $408 for a family of 3, $518 for a family of 4, $615 for a family of 5, and $738 for a family of 6 , USD 816 for a family of 7 and USD 932 for a family of 8. For families of eight or more, you can get an extra $117 for each additional member.This kind of food stamp is like a bank card, and the cardholder can buy bread, fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and other food in the store.

Look at the US minimum wage. In 2004, the legal minimum wage in the United States was US$5.15 per hour (the highest minimum wage in Shenzhen, China, was less than 50 cents per hour).In fact, the hourly wages of Americans are generally higher than this standard.Each region of the United States has its own "local standards."For example, the New York State minimum wage is $7.15 an hour. Let's talk about retirement.The population of the United States is nearly 300 million. Except for the elderly and children, almost all employees (about 47 million) in the United States have participated in the pension system of pension security, enterprise annuity and commercial insurance.This coverage is very high.After retirement, the average American receives a pension equivalent to 80% of their salary at work, and it is even higher for civil servants, which is 1.2 times their on-the-job income.

Look at medical care.The middle class in the United States mainly relies on commercial medical insurance.Low-income earners and the elderly over the age of 65 have special state financial guarantees.If you get a serious illness, you can see a doctor first, and then settle the bill.Of course, personal credit will be affected.The government will also subsidize the post-illness expenses of this part of the population. And national education.The United States implements compulsory education for all. The tuition fees of some community colleges are very low, and the basic education expenditure of Americans is also relatively low.

More importantly, the centuries-old tradition of national credit consumption cultivated by the developed and loose financial industry in the United States has given every American "more money to spend."Bush said in a speech: "Every time an American family moves into their own home, America becomes stronger." To realize this vision, Bush introduced new policies to encourage people to own homes, such as "zero down payment plan".More assorted mortgage forms followed, including loans with no monthly payments for 24 months.Later, there are loans that require no written documents as long as the borrower's verbal commitment is required.

The unrestrained credit consumption in the United States finally led to the financial crisis sweeping the world. However, if you think that the credit consumption model in the United States is about to end, then you can only say that you are stupid and naive.This model will not end. The United States will continue their borrowing and consumption economy after a slight adjustment and recovery.Because, as this book will soon reveal, this model is one of the basic logics of America’s prosperity. Its essence is not borrowing and consumption, but the terrible printing of money for shopping. It is this kind of money printing and shopping that allows the United States to sweep the world Let the whole world work for the United States, providing them with inexhaustible and inexhaustible material products and wealth for free.You want the United States to stop this kind of empty-handed white wolf plunder, isn't it just a dream?

The wealth of the United States is beyond your imagination, and the "poor" of the United States challenges your imagination even more. The wealth of the United States is built on the basis of heavy debts. This seemingly contradictory existence actually implies that the United States Strong logic. "China Economic Weekly" once published an article "The United States is technically bankrupt" (author Niu Wenxin). This article claimed that the United States owed a total of 73 trillion US dollars in debt, but its assets were only 50 trillion US dollars. How did the $73 trillion owed come about?The article mentions that “according to the public data of the United States, after the full implementation of the $850 billion financial rescue package, the nominal national debt balance that the U.S. Congress can accept is $11.2 trillion...according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (Government Accountability Office). According to the estimates of David Volker, the Comptroller General and President and CEO of the Peter Peterson Foundation of the United States, if the U.S. government’s social security arrears and other hidden debts to the citizens are added together, then in 2007 the U.S. The actual total debt is as high as 53 trillion US dollars... If we take the mortgage bonds such as the "Family and Freddie Bonds", issued by major consortiums in the United States, it is unclear whether they are corporate bonds or government debts, and municipal bonds - a total of 200,000 Billion dollars (statistics of the National Debt Association SIFMA at the end of 2007) is counted, and the U.S. debt is as high as 73 trillion U.S. dollars.” At that time, the assets of the entire United States were worth at most 50 trillion U.S. dollars at fair prices, 730,000 U.S. dollars. With a debt of 100 million U.S. dollars and assets of 50 trillion U.S. dollars, this kind of financial situation, put it in any other country, this country should have gone bankrupt long ago.

Of course, we see the fact that the US is not bankrupt and is leading the global economic recovery. What is the reason why the United States owes tens of trillions of dollars, is insolvent and not bankrupt? Some people say that it is the uncle who owes the debt, and the Americans owe too much, so countries dare not let it go bankrupt, otherwise who will pay the debt? This is of course nonsense. If the United States can go bankrupt, other big countries will not care about those debts. We can replace the United States if it collapses. Why not do it. In fact, the topic of the bankruptcy of the United States is a false proposition, which should not be discussed. The United States is not an ordinary country, it is a superpower, and you want it to go bankrupt.

Let alone 73 trillion in debt, so what if it is 730 trillion in debt?At worst, people can renege on their debts, what can you do?Do you want to fight a nuclear war?Therefore, what we should really discuss is not whether the United States should go bankrupt, but to figure out why the United States owes so much money, and how to maintain the long-term prosperity of the United States and ensure the rich life of its people , and how the United States is heading towards the financial crisis step by step, and how it can recover from the crisis and continue its prosperity.All this is the real fascinating mystery.

In this book, I will unravel all these mysteries. I want to tell you that the foundation of contemporary American prosperity lies in its conscious or unconscious use of the "principle of printing money for shopping" that will be proposed in this book.I will tell you that it is not the Americans who are conspiring, but all countries in the world, including China, are too stupid to understand and apply this principle. To put it simply, this is an economic era in which production capacity is generally oversupplied. Basically, I can produce as many products as you want. Insufficient consumption is the bottleneck of the economy.So what kind of game is the United States playing?

It prints dollars to buy products all over the world, solving the problem of global overcapacity. The essence of the dollar is waste paper, it has no value.However, due to the comprehensive national strength of the United States, the US dollar has historically been used as the world settlement currency, and this waste paper can be exchanged for products of any country.The waste paper of the U.S. dollar has thus become a Ponzi scheme that can continue indefinitely. It is valuable not because of its own value, but because countless people and countries accept and recognize it, and countless next companies will take over. people, so it has value. Theoretically speaking, the United States does not need to pretend to engage in any economic production activities in the country at all. In fact, this country can maintain the affluent life of the people of the whole country as long as it keeps printing dollars. , on the contrary, it is a matter of huge profits for all parties involved.Let me use an analogy to illustrate this problem. Suppose there are only three countries in the world, the United States, China, and Japan. The United States does not produce anything, and it buys by printing money. The US dollar is the international currency. China and Japan are countries with severe excess capacity.In the absence of international trade, both China and Japan have a large production capacity that cannot be started. For example, China has the capacity to produce 1.5 billion pairs of socks each year, but only 1 billion pairs can be sold domestically, which means that there are 500 million pairs of socks. For example, Japan has a serious overcapacity of small cars, which can produce 1 million cars per year, but Japan can only sell 700,000 cars, so they have an overcapacity of 300,000 cars.Do you feel sorry for this kind of overcapacity? It is obvious that so many products can be produced, but they cannot be produced just because no one buys them, because the manufacturer only recognizes the profit expressed in currency, and the manufacturer will not carry out redundant production without profit. Production.Obviously, such a tragic situation can be improved, and the United States has played the role of such a savior. The United States, a country that does not produce any products, has somehow fooled China and Japan, making these two countries accept the worthless dollars printed by the United States. The United States can exchange these waste papers for China and Japan. Goods, and the US dollars received by China can also be exchanged for Japanese goods, and vice versa, Japan can also exchange the earned US dollars for Chinese goods.Now it's easy, the United States has printed enough dollars to buy 400 million pairs of socks in China and 250,000 cars in Japan.In this way, because of the "profit", China's excess production capacity of 500 million pairs of socks has been resolved by 400 million pairs, and Japan's excess production capacity of 300,000 cars has also been resolved by 250,000 units.Attention everyone, the United States has done nothing, just printed US dollars, which has given the world a huge material wealth of 400 million pairs of socks and 250,000 cars. These credits are all due to the US money printing machine.The matter is not over yet. China uses the "dollars" obtained from selling socks to buy 50,000 cars in Japan. In this way, the overcapacity of cars in Japan is completely solved; and Japan also uses the dollars obtained from selling cars to buy Chinese cars. 100 million pairs of socks, so that China's overcapacity of socks has all been resolved.In the end, you will find that the start of the money printing machine in the United States has resulted in 300,000 more cars and 500 million pairs of socks worldwide, and the United States, Japan, and China have all benefited. For the United States, it got the goods for nothing, and for China and Japan, they got "dollars", and this dollar is really valuable at this time-because China can use dollars to buy Japanese goods, Japan can also use US dollars to buy Chinese goods. The real world economy is the same as my analogy above. First of all, the United States is actually a shell economy. You will find that more than 80% of the United States’ GDP is the service industry. This part of GDP does not generate any material wealth. These so-called The function of the service industry is actually to put on a show and find ways to send the dollars printed by the money printing machine to the hands of Americans.This is the same as printing money and sending it directly to the Americans. This is just to deceive people. When will America really go bankrupt? That is, when both China and Japan realize the truth of printing money for shopping, the United States will no longer be allowed to print money for shopping, and China, Japan and all countries with excess production capacity will be able to print money by themselves. Become a country that can only maintain food and clothing, because it can no longer exchange waste paper—dollars for goods from other countries, and 80% of the service industry will be meaningless, leaving less than 20% in the real sense The material products produced by China, not to mention maintaining the affluent life of Americans, may be enough to maintain the lowest standard of modern people's life. Trade and finance have closely linked China and the United States, so the term "China and the United States" was born.Facing the fairy tales in Central America, I don't know how many people are thinking about the same puzzles as I am, and how many people will have the same confusion.Perhaps one of the biggest puzzles is, what do we get out of it?Is it just dollar waste paper? Let's examine the whole process of Sino-US trade.Americans buy goods from China for $100, Americans get goods, and we get $100.Then according to the law, the $100 payment received by the Chinese manufacturer must go to a commercial bank to convert it into RMB according to the exchange rate, and then the commercial bank must hand over the $100 to the Central Bank to exchange it for the same RMB. So where does the central bank get the money to pay commercial banks?It is printing money. Every time the central bank receives a foreign exchange, it will print the equivalent amount of RMB according to the exchange rate to pay to the other party. In this way, the central bank has formed foreign exchange reserves. In the next step, the central bank will use a large part of its foreign exchange reserves to purchase financial products with high liquidity and good security, mainly US treasury bonds. The result is that the dollars we got went back to the United States, and the United States sold Chinese treasury bonds, and they got the dollars to continue lending to the common people in the United States, and the common people used their credit cards desperately to buy Chinese goods. This cycle goes on and on, our foreign exchange reserves are increasing, and our products are continuously flowing to the United States.If the foreign exchange we get is only to maintain this cycle, you will find that we get nothing, what we get is waste paper. Even more paradoxically, you will find that in this process, every time a part of the products in China flow out, the RMB in China will increase by a corresponding part out of thin air (because the central bank prints money to buy foreign exchange), that is to say, the goods decrease. And money has increased. What do we end up with?Undoubtedly inflation. Brothers of migrant workers enjoy high prices with low income.On the other side of the ocean, the United States, the US dollar has gone to China, and the goods from China have increased. Therefore, no matter how the United States issues currency, there is no inflation. The common people enjoy high income and low commodity prices, and everything is thanks to China.How to solve such confusion. The issue of renminbi appreciation has been talked about for many years, and so many people's analysis rarely touches on the crucial point.This book will reveal the truth, and here I will simply "publish" the answer. On March 25, 2010, US Treasury Secretary Geithner once again issued a call to China for RMB appreciation.How should we view the fact that the United States is forcing the appreciation of the renminbi? If you want to understand the US strategy, you have to understand what the US is.This starts with the Bretton Woods system. In the international monetary system established after World War II, the U.S. dollar is linked to gold and becomes an international currency. Dollars to exchange for their gold.However, in the early 1970s, the Vietnam War led to a huge deficit of the U.S. government, and the confidence in the U.S. dollar was severely shaken by countries around the world.The United States could not cope with this kind of run at all, and finally simply announced that it would no longer fulfill its exchange commitments, and the Bretton Woods system collapsed.Thus broke out a really big crisis for the dollar.However, the United States succeeded in making the US dollar the only settlement currency in the international oil market through diplomatic efforts, which has since saved the US dollar. Attention everyone, since then the world economy has begun an extremely terrifying era, that is, the era in which Americans have started a decades-long debt economic model, borrowing money and printing money for shopping on a global scale.What does it mean? First, because the U.S. dollar has lost the constraints of gold and has become a runaway horse, the U.S. has started printing money and directly printing money to shop around the world, without worrying that countries around the world will come to the U.S. to run on gold due to concerns about the U.S. dollar ; Second, the link between the U.S. dollar and oil transactions also ensures the status of the U.S. dollar, making any country have to reserve a huge amount of U.S. dollars. These two points enabled the United States to start a crazy era of borrowing and printing money for shopping. Americans no longer have to produce products, but only need to borrow and print money to buy products from all over the world. The first is to print money. How will the printed money be sent to the Americans?Relying on the service industry, the US service industry accounts for 80% of GDP. In fact, this is just a trick to fool people.Today I open the bathroom door for you, you give me $100; tomorrow I open the car door for you, you give me $100; today I teach your daughter the piano, you give me $1000; tomorrow you provide me with Legal knowledge service, I'll give you $1,000.The GDP of the United States is like this. It is a set of tricks. On the surface, it is GDP, but in essence it is sending money.Through the abnormally high wages in the service industry, the printed dollars are sent to the hands of the people, and then the people use these dollars to buy foreign goods and realize a prosperous life.Don't be intimidated by the terrible high GDP of the United States, they don't actually produce much wealth. The second is to borrow money. The United States has already printed and issued money very quickly, but Americans are still not satisfied with spending, so they have to borrow money desperately, and each person has more than a dozen credit cards.Where the money was borrowed from, a large part of it was borrowed from a country with a large dollar reserve like China. The essence of the subprime mortgage crisis and the world financial crisis that began in 2007 is the crisis of the US economic model of printing money and borrowing money for shopping.Because the crazy borrowing and printing of money for shopping since the Bretton Woods system is about to make the United States collapse (most of the general product production has been driven out of the United States), and if this continues, the United States will really become a Completely empty shell.So the US bubble was punctured, you could say it was intentionally punctured by the US government, because they could have kept printing money to fill all the holes, there was no need to puncture it.So, is the United States really going to end its own money-printing, borrowing and shopping model?No.They just want to take a break at halftime, take it easy, and stop feeling exhausted. From the beginning of the crisis to the present, the United States has been forcing the appreciation of the renminbi (in fact, it had already started a year or two before the crisis broke out, and it became more urgent after the crisis). Why is this? The same purpose!They just want to control the speed of printing money and borrowing money to buy goods. Don’t let Americans keep printing money and borrowing money to buy Chinese goods. self-produce).Therefore, the strategy of the United States is to avoid the consequences of this kind of collapse. You must temporarily appreciate the RMB to make it more difficult for Americans to buy Chinese goods, so that the US economy will not collapse again, and the United States will restore a little bit of manufacturing.You can also believe that the US government said that this is to solve the current unemployment problem of 20 million workers in the United States, but don't forget that before the subprime mortgage crisis, employment of these people was not a problem at all. Just ask, what is the difference between now and before the subprime mortgage crisis?It is just that the speed of printing money and the intensity of consumer credit issuance have become smaller.To solve the problem of employment, the United States only needs to return to the same level as before, let these 20 million people be like before 2007, you serve me, I serve you, get high wages (payment by printing money), and then buy goods from all over the world To live a prosperous life, all countries in the world have excess production capacity, and how many dollars can be printed can buy as many goods in the world.In the long run, the United States will of course continue their money printing and borrowing money shopping model, and this day will not be too long.At that time, the United States will not force the renminbi to appreciate, but the opposite.Because once printing money and shopping on loan are resumed, no country is more suitable for "cooperation" (buying things from China) than China. Therefore, today, the United States is forcing the appreciation of the renminbi, which is just a tactic to delay the attack.You don't have to take this problem too seriously, it will pass after a few flirts.If China really announces that the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar will remain unchanged for a long time at 2:1, it would be no wonder that the U.S. would not be frightened. A while ago I heard that Lang Xianping had written a book called New Imperialism in China, so I went to buy it as a reference book for writing this book.In addition to maintaining his usual sensational writing style, using his wonderful imagination to conjure up a large number of conspiracies in the United States, there is nothing new in his book. Soybeans, corn, and cotton have become the tenderness of the US imperialists to calculate us.The result of reading it is that I didn't refer to it in a single sentence when I wrote this book.Disappointingly, Professor Lang has only scratched the surface of contemporary neo-imperialism at best. "The True Face of New Imperialism" is the title of the fourth part of Professor Lang's book, so let me talk about what is the true face of contemporary New Imperialism.In fact, the second part of my book is to answer this question comprehensively, so I will briefly talk about it here. In fact, the true face of contemporary new imperialism is very simple, it is the four-wheeled exploitation cart + money printing and shopping circulation system.These four carriages are: finance, film and television entertainment, international brands and technology patents. Through these four carriages, new imperialism can establish extremely unfair trade relations with developing countries around the world, and every transaction can be empty-handed walk their astounding fortunes.As for what this unfairness means, I have a detailed explanation in the book.Now we only take international brands as an example. The imperialist countries in the era of globalization have discovered through the practice of international trade that when brands act as tools to plunder wealth, their efficiency is much higher than that of robbing with guns and guns 100 years ago, so they wantonly develop international brands. Brand fees are charged around the world. How do brands steal wealth? It is divided into primary stage and advanced stage. In the initial stage, the imperialist countries produced these branded products by themselves, and then sold them to developing countries (of course, developed countries also sell to each other, but because they are brand-to-brand mutual trade, there is no exploitation and plunder between the two parties) of.We know that 100 years ago, in addition to robbery, Western powers also exploited backward countries with trade scissors: they exchanged their highly efficient industrial products for agricultural products and raw materials of backward countries. Cheap. However, today, 100 years later, when these formerly backward countries also start to produce industrial products, and the quality is no different from what they produced, their trick will not work.So they came up with the coup of branding.They told us that although the quality of the things you make is the same as ours, you have to know that our products are brand names and are very tasteful. One of our products must be exchanged for 100 of the same products of yours.When we heard it, we thought it was very reasonable and agreed.Of course, in reality, it is not that there is no exchange, but the price of the same product is ten times or a hundred times different. In this way, contemporary neo-imperialism has realized the upgrade of brand trade exploitation, from the scissors difference of industrial and agricultural products 100 years ago to today's flickering of brands against non-brands.They used the same shoes, but because they put a different label on them, they exchanged 100 pairs of the same shoes from us, and earned 99 pairs for their people to enjoy.Under such a transaction, can their country not be rich? However, they soon invented a method of plundering that was more efficient, convenient, and trouble-free than this, and developed brand exploitation to an advanced stage.Because they realize that the "value" of branded goods does not lie in the material entity itself, but in its symbols. In this case, I simply only deal in "brand symbols". I don't need to work hard to make products. Let those poor countries do the production. When they produce good products, we buy them at a low price, put a label on them, and sell them at a hundred times the price.This is virtualized world brand management.The brand headquarters in the United States are only responsible for advertising and product design, promoting brand symbols around the world, and continuously increasing popularity and reputation, while the material entities of the products are all manufactured by poor countries (such as China).This is the virtual operation of international brands. How does it work? Let's take Nike shoes as an example. About 30% of the Nike shoes in the United States are produced in a Taiwanese company in Dongguan City. Assuming that a pair of Nike shoes sells for 1,000 yuan, the Taiwanese company can get at most 100 yuan (the 100 yuan will be distributed to the workers. share), the middleman (transportation, sales) and the brand owner (Nike head office) probably get the same share, that is, about 450 yuan each.The mystery lies here. The Americans put a trademark on the Nike shoes produced by the Chinese and bought them to the Chinese.With this trademark, we have reaped 5 times the profit of the manufacturer.Then, the Americans used the money they earned to import ordinary shoes from China (the same Taiwanese company produced the same quality shoes with Chinese trademarks), and each pair only cost 100 yuan. RMB. During the whole process, the Americans were empty-handed, using the shoes produced by the Chinese to put a brand on them and sell them to the Chinese at a high price, and then use the Chinese money they harvested to buy shoes of the same quality at a low price for themselves. The end result is that the Americans did nothing, played with a set of concepts, and got high-quality shoes for nothing. The Americans have played their cards right.For every pair of shoes produced by Chinese companies for Nike, the final result is to send five pairs of shoes of the same quality to the United States. As for how finance, entertainment, patent fees and money-printed shopping realize the plunder of developing countries by contemporary new imperialism, please read the whole book. Let me first tell you that the plundering power of money printing and shopping exceeds the horsepower of the four-horse carriage driving together, and there are not many contemporary neo-imperialist countries that can truly implement money printing and shopping on a large scale to plunder wealth from the world , to be precise, there is only one, and that is the United States.The European Union and Japan can also implement it to a certain extent, but the effect is much lower than that of the United States. I will explain the reason. It is said that there is such a country in the world: the government’s savings rate has doubled within six years; wage growth lags behind GDP growth; the country’s Gini coefficient is 0.45; 75% of the country’s 100 largest companies’ assets are state assets; The country is politically non-competitive; it is very open to foreign investment; and it has industrialized so rapidly that agricultural employment has fallen by a third in a decade. You must have guessed it, this is about China.I can say you are right and I can say you are wrong. To say that the above characteristics are indeed in line with today's China, but in fact it describes Brazil in the 1960s.Yes, Brazil is a country that once created an economic miracle and maintained rapid growth for many years. However, what is full of tragedy is that it was paralyzed when it was about to become a developed country. threshold for developed countries.The example of Brazil tells us that it may not be an easy task to become a developed country. There is another country like this in the world: this country has maintained rapid growth for more than 20 years (annual average of more than 10%); the country's government is very strong and firmly controls the society; Open to the outside world; driven by an export-oriented economy, the country's fishing villages have suddenly become industrialized cities; the country's corruption problem is often criticized, and the combination of power and capital is increasingly becoming a problem; the country's unfair distribution continues to worsen ;Scholars in this country have a popular saying that corruption is not a big problem, and even that corruption is the driving force of economic development; the country's banking system has a lot of bad debts, and the financial system is not healthy... Does this mean China again? Of course not, it's Indonesia.Although it is a good thing for a country to maintain long-term high-speed economic growth, it cannot cover up all the ugliness.Not only in China, but even in the international arena, many scholars who study the development of the third world have a fairly broad understanding or concept, that is, as long as a country maintains a high-speed economic growth for a long time, everything will be fine. Or the concept was rejected by the Indonesian crisis. After Suharto's successful coup, Indonesia has been using coercive methods to promote industrialization and modernization, and has maintained rapid growth for more than two decades. Many countries around the world have invested in Indonesia.During this process, many Indonesian people have stepped from fishing villages in the early stage of agricultural civilization to the early stage of industrial society.Therefore, during the more than 20 years of rule, Suharto felt that he had contributed too much to this country, and the whole country should thank him.However, during the two decades of rapid development and the goal of stability, the government has not clearly seen the problems accumulated in Indonesian society - the collusion of privileged groups, serious inequality and corruption, financial institutions fester, and so on.As a result, in the tide of globalization, the financial crisis broke out in 1997, and the achievements made by Indonesia in the past two decades were almost lost within a few months, followed by conflicts and riots. Foreign capital has run away.Indonesia is also a country that collapsed when it crossed the threshold of developed countries. In fact, such examples are not limited to Brazil and Indonesia? The economic history of the past two hundred years is there, especially in the past half century, how many have truly become developed countries? Very few! Looking at the 60 years since World War II, which countries in the world have become developed countries (regions)? It is the well-known four Asian tigers and Japan, as well as the lesser-known Nordic countries of Finland, Ireland and Iceland. We all know that Finland became a developed country after the Second World War relying on one industry and one brand, that is, the telecommunications industry and Nokia; Take off and develop at a high speed.As for Iceland, it is purely a tiny place. It is not worth mentioning what kind of country such a country that is only as big as a small town in China has become, and it has no reference value.There are countless countries like Brazil and Indonesia that have failed on the road to developed countries, including all Latin American countries, most Southeast Asian countries, and all African countries (except South Africa), all of which are becoming developed countries failed in its efforts. Let me tell you that becoming a developed country is really too difficult. The road of Shu is harder than going to the sky, and the road to a developed country is obviously more difficult than the road of Shu. If you look at the thousands of years of human history, it is easy to find that there have always been only a very small number of countries in the world that are advanced and developed, and the poor and "developing countries" will always be the vast majority. If everyone is a developed country, it is not called a developed country. The road to developed countries must be a road of thousands of troops crossing a single-plank bridge. It must be extremely dangerous, and if you are not careful, your previous efforts will be wasted and your bones will be smashed. The stories of Brazil and Indonesia have already told us this. Don't naively think that China will gradually become a developed country in a step-by-step manner by relying on an annual economic growth rate of more than 8%.From the failure stories of the "Brazilians" and their historical experience, you can see the shadow of today's China everywhere, and many aspects are so familiar. Is China really that special?Is it special for a strong government to promote market-oriented reforms and open to the outside world? Brazil did it in the 1960s; efficient promotion of infrastructure projects, demolition is very good?Brazil did too; decades of high growth unprecedented?Brazil, Indonesia and many other countries have done it.They can't even become a developed country, why should we do it? If we want to become a developed country, we cannot do what the United States says or do. Instead, we must understand the true logic of the rich and the poor in contemporary countries, and we must act according to this true logic.This book is to uncover this real logic. The comparison between history and reality is always weird. On the one hand, there are so many cases of countries that have failed on the road to developed countries in history, which shows how difficult and rugged the road is; on the other hand, over the years, we have seen So many experts and scholars at home and abroad are surprisingly optimistic about the bright future of China's economy. It is only a matter of time before the Japanese catch up with the United States. It has not been a year or two since the topic of China catching up with the United States has been hotly debated. We can see that people from all over the world have made different calculations and predictions on this issue, and piled them up at their fingertips. From these predictions, most believe that China will surpass the United States within 20 years. Of course, this refers to the surpassing of the total economic volume, that is, the surpassing of GDP. In the past two years, Europe and the United States have been severely affected by the global economic crisis. Many people, including many Western economists, believe that China is the key to the recovery of the global economy. A report pointed out that within 10 years, China's GDP will surpass that of the United States.The most optimistic forecast is that the renminbi will one day replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency. Hungarian "Economic Weekly" article on February 18, 2009, if the 20th century belongs to the United States, then the 21st century will belong to China.Although China has not yet triumphed over the United States in economic, political, or military power, the Chinese Century is bound to become a reality. 《哈佛企业评论》杂志曾刊出北京大学中国经济研究中心主任林毅夫的一篇文章。他说，按购买力平价计算，中国到2030年不仅会超过美国，而且国内生产总值将会比美国高1.5倍。如不发生意外，如果人民币继续升值、美元继续贬值，如果中国和全世界像现在这样发展，这将成为现实。有人认为，未来10年世界将趋向三极——美国、欧盟和中国，布热津斯基对这一观点表示赞同。有经济学家指出，在40年内，人民币将逐渐取代美元成为主要的国际储备货币，让中国在全球经济体系中占据更中心的位置。 《经济学家》前编辑比尔·艾摩特（Bill Emmott）提到世界银行分析预测说中国和印度在未来十年左右“经济总量几乎可以翻两番”。到了2020年代后期，中国可能超过美国成为世界头号经济强国。更有研究报告预测说，中国最早将在2020年超过美国，成为全球最大经济体。 高盛公司2003年曾预测说，中国的GDP将在2041年达到与美国相同的水平；到了2008年，高盛将这一时间提前到了2027年。 2008年首次来到中国的诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼对中国的经济的预言则是：中国要变成世界最大的经济体需要20年时间。中国用经济高增长拉动全世界。金砖四国概念的创造者、高盛公司经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔曾预言：2027年中国经济总量将赶上美国。 这些预言无一例外都认为，中国超过美国从现在算起只需不到20年，你是该信呢，还是不信呢？ 我告诉各位，若单从GDP总量的角度看，这些预言都是可信的，并且几乎是板上钉钉，一定会如期到来。各位可以提前欢呼了。 很简单，美国的经济增速基本可以预计，中国每年的高速增长也基本可以确定在8%以上，并且多数人预计中国仍然可以保持20年的高速增长，这样代入数字一算，很容易算清楚中国在哪一年赶上美国，无论你怎么算，出入都不会太大，都会在20年左右，因为大家对美国的增长速度（1%左右）和中国的增长速度（10%左右）的估计都差不多，没什么玄乎的。 当然，这其中还涉及人民币兑美元升值的问题，假如这期间人民币升值加速，那么用美元计算的中国GDP赶上美国的时间就更快了。你得知道，比方说中国同样是生产了100人民币的GDP，如果汇率是5，它就是20美元，如果汇率是8，它才12美元多。 人民币升值会极大地拉高中国的以美元衡量的GDP，也就会在数字上极快地拉近中美之间的差距。 面对如此确定的即将赶超美国的愿景，作为中国人的一分子，各位自然有欢欣鼓舞的充分理由和权利，我也得充分尊重各位的感情，因为我也一样希望中国富强。但是，我在此不得不给各位浇三盆冷水。 第一，中国的经济总量未必能如愿超过美国。各位应该有所耳闻，在20世纪80年代世界各地也有很多关于日本将主导全球经济的言论和预言，当然这些预言首要的一条就是预言日本的经济总量将很快超过美国。自从1979年哈佛大学教授傅高义（Ezra Vogel）的《日本第一》面市以来，世界各地热议日本经济的类似著作在整个80年代真可谓是汗牛充栋。 比如，《纽约时报》记者丹尼尔·布尔斯泰恩（Daniel Burstein）在《日元！日本最新的金融王朝和其对美国的威胁》一书中悲哀地说，随着美国财政赤字不断剧增，美国称雄世界的经济将一去不复返，而日本则从此在全球经济中挑起大梁。“如果说日本人在1970年代和1980年代是世界上公认最有效率的劳工，到了21世纪将成为世界上最有效率的经理、行销商、交易商，而最重要是金融家。从东京的大本营里，日本金融机构控制全球的战略资源”“到了2004年，日本是世界上最富裕的国家。”这些都是该书著名的预言。然而事实上，日本真的在经济总量上超过美国而成为世界第一了吗？当然没有，日本直到今天仍然没有摆脱老二的位置，而且马上就要被中国超越，连第二的位置也保不住了。这些预言无一命中。 回到今天的中国，我们有什么理由确信我们会比日本人运气好呢？不要说日本是不小心陷入了泡沫经济，不小心掉入了美国人的圈套，这些，难道中国就可以逃脱？前路艰险啊，天有不测风云，只有危在旦夕之时我们才会猛然醒悟。 第二，即使总量上超过了美国，也没多大意义。日本在经济总量上超过美国，意义是重大的，因为日本的人口是1.2亿左右，美国3亿人口，日本人口还不到美国的一半，所以日本总量上超过美国也就意味着人均上超过了美国几倍。中国正相反，中国的人口是美国的四倍多（中国以约数13亿计，美国以约数3亿计），中国经济总量赶上美国的时候，人均GDP则只有美国的四分之一。就是这么简单的算术，各位都可以自己算明白，算到最后你就和我一样兴奋不起来了。 第三，量与质的区别。经济增长不但要看量，还要看质，这是最简单的常识。同样的经济增长量，我们牺牲的环境是多大？我们的技术含量有多高？我们搞了多少血汗工厂？这些你我都心知肚明。而我要告诉各位的是，这些还不是最重要的质，还有更高层次的质，那就是本书所要提出的决定一个当代国家穷富的经济和产业的素质，这些我们通通没有。 比方说国际性的大品牌，技术专利，国际金融，各式各样的虚拟化产业，我们都没有，没有这些，光有经济总量，等于零，因为没有这些，你就永远无法跻身发达国家之列。 一句话，现在世界上有没有哪个地方的人会以使用中国的某种产品引以自豪，并藉以向亲朋夸耀？ No.我很明确地告诉各位，真的没有。你感到悲哀了吗，脊背发凉了吗？That's right. 那么你要问，要多久这样的局面才可能改观？ 我又会更加悲观地反问你，你可知道西方发达国家用了多少年才让他们的观念、品牌深入人心，成为世界主流，让任何一个角落的人民以他们的产品为荣？ 那么你从鸦片战争开始算吧（事实比这要早），至少也用个一个多世纪啊。 那么，你中国的文化要成为普世接受的，让人家引以为荣的文化，那要多少年？是不是也得搞个几百年？ 这下我们都彻底绝望了，搞不好，中国想要赶超美国，还要几百年。更搞不好，几百年后我们仍然是失败的。