Chapter 37 Appendix From the "third way" to a new war

The Iraq war has come to its "curtain call". There are different opinions on when and where the new round of war with the United States as the main body will start.The indisputable fact is that a recent opinion poll shows that 40% of the public in the United States approve of using military means to attack Syria, and 50% agree that the next attack will be directed at Iran.According to another poll, North Korea, China, and Syria are the top three countries considered by the US "public" to pose the greatest threat to the country.At the same time, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, dubbed a "stinky mouth" by various media in the world, made frequent reports of his accusations against the Arab world, East Asia, and the European Union.As for the contempt and humiliation of the international public opinion by the US government before and after the war against Iraq, the severity has reached an "unprecedented level" since the establishment of the United Nations.

People can't help asking, what happened to the United States?Is it true that, as the Western proverb says, God must first make him crazy if he wants to perish?Some people may attribute the foregoing to American arrogance.However, Uncle Sam's arrogance did not start today.As early as the Civil War, President Lincoln said: "The United States is almost a country specially delineated and selected by God." The inner demands of military intimidation.It can be seen that any analysis based on morality and spirituality will not help us understand the behavior of this superpower today, nor will it help us predict its future strategic direction.Then, applying the principle of "imperialism is war" can clear up doubts and find the source?I'm afraid not.Because how can simple theoretical principles explain the world trend of peace and development that has emerged since the end of the 20th century?Spring is here, everything is waking up, and the estrus period of military animals seems to have arrived.Let us, like the great director Hitchcock, analyze in essence how "Doctor Edward" turned into the terrifying "Dr. Avatar"!

Roughly since the 1980s, the United States and other developed countries in the world have entered the "post-industrial era".As we all know, this era is also called "information revolution" and "digital age" because of some of its scientific and technological characteristics.The "Third Wave", which is popular all over the world, once vividly predicted its unique style.Because the arrival of this era coincided with China's reform and opening up, it also brought joy in the land of China.Chinese scholars and people with advanced ideas enthusiastically hold high the banner of "Towards the Future" (this was also the name of a series of books with a wide readership at that time - author's note), and hail the coming new era and new era. century.In fact, according to the author's humble opinion, this so-called new era, in a more complete sense, still belongs to Europe and the United States, especially the United States.Because it is in the United States that along with the rapid development of biological life science technology, information technology, new energy development technology and aerospace technology, new and advanced productive forces have emerged.This new productive force based on high technology plays an increasingly important role in the economic development of the United States.According to statistics, this industry alone directly contributed more than 40% to the economic growth of the United States in the 1990s.Correspondingly, a new social class with a large number of people representing this new productive force has emerged.The emergence of new productive forces and new classes has led to profound changes in the socio-economic structure, industrial structure and social class structure of the United States.Contrary to the increasing number of the middle class (commonly referred to as the middle class) and becoming an important force in social, political and economic life, traditional industries and the ranks of workers and managers in traditional industries are shrinking day by day.Obviously, another round of high-tech industry-oriented large-scale economic restructuring, industrial adjustment, adjustment of social management power distribution, and strategic adjustment in response to economic globalization have become an inevitable trend in the United States.It is the new productive forces that make the so-called imperialism not dead, dead but not stiff; it is also the internal requirements of this new productive forces that have become the fertile mother bed that gave birth to the idea of ​​the "third way".

Representatives of the "third way" are former US President Clinton, German Chancellor Schröder and British Prime Minister Blair.They all belong to the new generation who were born or grew up after the war, and have common or similar experiences and traits: they were born in a humble background, came from the bottom, have tasted the hardships of the world, received a complete and good education, and have tenacity and hard work.As the initiators of the "Third Way", they opposed both excessive state intervention and one-sided emphasis on market competition; they clearly saw that the traditional Keynesianism could no longer show its magic, and they also saw the serious setback of free capitalism.At the same time, they are well aware of the negative impact of the high tax and high welfare social democratic policies implemented in Europe, especially in Northern Europe.Therefore, they advocate reforming the European and American social and economic systems with the spirit of reform, modernization, and cooperation and mutual assistance to deal with the challenges brought about by economic globalization. Representatives of the "Third Way" strive to find a balance between fairness and efficiency at home, while advocating effective international cooperation internationally to promote exchanges and understanding among countries, especially the docking and coordination of relevant policies.In short, the emergence of the "third way" is a comprehensive reflection of the new productive forces in Europe and the United States represented by high and new technology requiring changes in the economic base, and the production relations characterized by economic globalization as an important feature requiring changes in the superstructure such as social management methods.Obviously, this set of theories is reasonable to a certain extent, and in fact, it has also produced a positive stimulus to the economic growth of European and American countries, especially the United States for 10 consecutive years.Since new productive forces based on high technology have no more conflicts of interest in energy and other natural resources in many countries in the world in the stage of industrialization or pre-industrial development, during the eight years that Clinton was in office in the White House, The world has always been in the general rhythm of peace and development.

The rise of high-tech industries will inevitably have an impact on the old economic structure and industrial structure of the United States.The latter's strong resistance and resistance finally formed a political backlash and counterattack.The personification of this kind of backlash is the coming of President Bush Jr. to power, and the "third way" came to an abrupt end. How the current U.S. government is related to traditional industries can be seen at a glance by looking at the relevant background.President Bush himself is a farmer in Texas with a 1,583-acre ranch and a net worth of more than $20 million.His relationship with major financial groups is well known.For this reason, the companies with the most campaign donations belong to petroleum, petrochemical, natural gas, pharmaceuticals, tobacco, manufacturing and marketing, and engineering contracting.After Bush became the new owner of the White House, in order to repay the care of these big companies, he asked Vice President Dick Cheney to organize an energy policy project team.Cheney himself is also the CEO of an energy company.As a result, the two hit it off and blatantly withdrew from the "Kyoto Protocol", which focuses on environmental protection.As an important cabinet member, the Secretary of Defense was also the CEO and director of several pharmaceutical and telecommunications companies.Ms. Rice, who has always been regarded as a hawk, also serves as the chairman or international consultant of several traditional industry companies.

Petroleum, petrochemical, manufacturing, arms, finance, real estate, etc., these industries are the pillars supporting the era of capitalist industrialization in Europe and the United States, although the high-tech in the post-industrial era also has a strong role in promoting the renewal of these industries , but they are products of the old age after all, with the characteristics of high energy consumption and low technical content.Coupled with the high employment cost of American labor, it is difficult for them to compete with new industries at home; they often lose to their opponents abroad because of high operating costs.Although they account for more than 40% of the U.S. GDP (excluding the military industry), they are struggling after all and are in a situation where the sun is setting.If they want to develop, there is only one way, and that is to control the lifeblood of the economic development of all countries in the world - energy, and if they strangle each other's "throat", they will be invincible.Undoubtedly, this is the method used by the traditional capitalist powers to compete for the world.No matter how many changes have been made in the form of competition, the shadow of the "gunboat policy" is still faintly discernible.From this, it is not difficult for us to understand why the U.S. government under President Bush has tried its best to conquer cities and land despite all pressure from public opinion.

Completely abandon the "third way" and compete for traditional energy raw materials and resources based on monopolized transnational traditional industries in accordance with outdated ways of thinking and behavior. This is the strategic direction of the current US government. .How can a country that chooses such a strategic direction avoid conflict with countries that are trying to industrialize themselves?If the new productive forces in the United States cannot regain the upper hand in economy and politics, this kind of conflict will only intensify, until it leads to a new war, or even a world war.As far as the domestic economy of the United States is concerned, the victory of the Iraq War is essentially a victory of tradition over new life, a victory of capitalist aristocrats over capitalist civilians, and a victory of sunset industries over sunrise.

Such a victory is a tragedy for America and a portent of misfortune for the world, for which we can only weep.