Chapter 6 Chapter 5 Financial Innovation: Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater

Why are financial conspiracy theories popular in China?As far as I know, your "The Logic of Finance" is mainly based on the current hot issues in China, based on the logic of finance, and the cold thinking about China's social economy in the transition period, which was published under the background of the turning point of the financial crisis. Chen Zhiwu: Yes.Youben has caused a lot of misleading to the public, and many friends have been thinking about how to respond rationally.Because it itself is "creepy", just like reading Jin Yong's novels, it should not be taken too seriously.In fact, the author lacks an understanding of what modern finance is all about, and what financial transactions and the contribution of financial markets to society are all about.I think his prescription for China misses the point.In response to this, "The Logic of Finance" understands finance more from an orthodox and righteous perspective, including what is going on in finance and how to run it well; instead of looking from top to bottom, talking about some financial masters and The history of financial consortiums is full of theories of exploitation and conspiracy... That is not a good guide, it will not give future generations a chance to learn, and it will also mislead the decision-making of the leadership.A few months ago, when everyone talked about the financial situation in the United States, they all thought of "crisis". In fact, the crisis bottomed out in March.Two months ago, the real economy had recovered significantly, and it was estimated that the U.S. economy would grow by 2% in the third quarter. This has led to a change in people's negative attitude towards U.S. finance and a return to a rational understanding.

In this context, the publication of "The Logic of Finance" can also allow the public to look at finance from a more rational and constructive perspective.In fact, I myself did not expect that I would encounter this turning point when it was published.But having said that, the reason why conspiracy theories about finance are so popular in China is because there is still a relatively superstitious atmosphere in Chinese society as a whole.That kind of conspiracy theory is not so much a scientific theoretical perspective as it is a superstition.As claimed, a small group of financial giants have mastered a large number of financial resources, and after possessing huge financial strength, they can generate huge control capabilities, thus exploiting society, controlling politics, and triggering wars.These sounds seem to be very enjoyable, but what is not explained clearly is how did these people develop behind them?Just like the logic in our textbooks back then: Western multinational corporations are always plundering and exploiting. After setting the tone like this, they didn’t give the Chinese society and the academic circle a chance to ask – why do these multinational corporations operate so well in China?Because the political, cultural, and institutional environment, including the ethnic environment, faced by multinational companies are very unfavorable business factors.After these companies went abroad, how did they overcome various challenges?Including their personal safety, property safety and etiquette safety, what skills and methods do they have to open up the market?These are all worth learning.

In the past, these questions were not asked from another angle, so there was no opportunity for the intellectuals to learn, so that when Chinese companies want to go out today, looking back, there is nothing in the original textbooks and education. What kind of help does the Chinese company provide.When companies like Haier are not allowed to go global, they should learn from the experience of Western multinational companies, reduce tuition fees and avoid detours.The reason is the previous propaganda and education of Western-style plunder and imperialist conspiracy theories.In the final analysis, there is no opportunity for people to ask why, that is, "why" and "how" in English.Without even the opportunity to ask questions, there is no way to learn, let alone dig out the knowledge and principles behind it.

In one book, he "revealed" the Federal Reserve as a "private central bank".In terms of financial logic, how should we look at this issue? Chen Zhiwu: This is a big misleading place among the original materials collected by the author.He himself has always emphasized a basic premise that the right to issue currency must be in the hands of the government and public power.Based on this assumption, he looks at the Fed and the Bank of England not against the background of historical evolution, but with the current political situation as a value yardstick. This is very misleading.In fact, in human history, the right to issue currency is in the hands of the government, and it has only appeared in recent decades.

For example, there were several kinds of currencies in China in the 1950s, and even more in the 1930s. Both the central and local governments were issuing their own currencies.Dating back to the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, each county in Shandong Province had its own currency, and the silver and copper coins were different from each other.According to research by American scholars, there was a huge disparity between the prices of currencies at that time. In coastal areas such as Yantai, 3,000 renminbi was exchanged for one tael of silver, while in inland counties it was possible to exchange 1,500 or 2,000 renminbi for one tael of silver.At the same time, inland copper coins and iron coins are relatively popular, while coastal silver coins are more expensive, because cross-regional trade is often exchanged in silver; and inland counties are more popular for farmers’ market transactions. What is broken money.In ancient China, private financial markets such as pawnshops, banks, and ticket offices have always been relatively prosperous, and even very prosperous.Especially by the middle of the 20th century, each province had its own banknotes and metal coins. The fineness of silver coins and copper coins was different, and the price ratio was also very different.Therefore, in addition to official money, private money has always existed in history.The same situation exists in Western countries.This actually has something to do with democratic constitutionalism. When the public power is too strongly restricted by the society, there is private money for banks and currency issuance, which can make the centralization of power subject to the constraints of the common people, and will not concentrate all financial wealth in the hands of the government. and bring huge public nuisance to the society.If official money exists alone, the imperial court's ability to transfer people's fat and people's anointment will reach the extreme, and the consequences will be unimaginable.

Therefore, it is not surprising that "conspiracy theorists" criticize the Federal Reserve as the background of private bank shareholders, because this is the case in all human financial development histories.Furthermore, people don’t have to look so scary about private banks holding the right to issue currency. Just like Hong Kong today, although the right to issue currency is in the hands of HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of China, it is not controlled by the government’s public power. The financial order and social order in China are still functioning well.Therefore, the control of currency issuance by private banks does not mean that it will be abused, because there are market forces to restrict currency issuance rights.I think that thousands of years of human historical experience tells us that it is better to leave the right to issue currency to the market and private financial institutions than to completely control it in the hands of public power.At least because of market pressure, a lot of confusion and risk has been avoided.Because of this, Shanxi's ticket offices are still very prosperous most of the time.Because if they want to keep their money houses running from generation to generation, they must understand the importance of credibility and reputation; excessive invoice numbers will eventually lead to the collapse of their own money houses.In fact, the logic of the book has many hidden assumptions, none of which were clearly resolved in the end.A basic assumption runs through the entire book: private private banks or private shareholders have the right to issue currency, which is absolutely not allowed.In my opinion, this is a very bad logic.Financial regulation and financial innovation are two different sides of the same coin.

After the full-scale outbreak of the financial crisis, some people in China began to feel inflated. It is generally believed that China will emerge from the crisis faster than the West and achieve recovery faster.Regrettably, just because the growth under this economic model comes too easily and too quickly, it makes Chinese people prone to hypocrisy and do not study some substantive issues. Chen Zhiwu: Therefore, for China's long-term economic development, the next road needs more institutional reform.Democracy and the rule of law are more basic and important tasks.I recently contacted some middle and high-level people, and found that some people have already begun to feel ecstatic.Talking about the legal system and science to them is undoubtedly playing the piano with cattle.Many people began to gloat over the US economic crisis, but they ignored the ability of the US system to repair.The reason why the United States has grown into a world superpower is by no means accidental. The institutional dependence and imitation behind it are completely different.Some time ago, I said in a TV interview, don't think that Obama is taking the road of socialism.Because in the long run, the success of all developed countries is the result of free competition.Although the United States implemented Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s to increase government functions to save the economic crisis, it gradually relaxed regulations when Reagan became president in the 1980s. Clinton did not strengthen too much regulation in the 1990s. A glorious period of self-employment with vitality and innovative spirit.

Britain also promoted the prosperity of the 18th and 19th centuries because of the implementation of a free economy, but today's status quo is regrettable. What is the reason?A recent study found that the top ten listed companies in the UK account for 70% to 80% of all transaction volumes, and the rest are small and medium-sized enterprises.It turns out that the United Kingdom introduced too many government control policies after World War I and World War II. For example, British stocks are subject to a stamp duty of 0.5%, which is much higher than that in China now.These policies made Britain's capital market stagnate or even decline after World War II, and it was gradually surpassed by the United States.Therefore, judging from the development experience of various countries, the more the government controls, the more it will damage a country's development vitality and the advancement of the new economy.In the United States, in 1999, the Clinton administration abolished the "Glass-Steagall Act" and other related laws that restricted the cross-industry operations of commercial banks, securities companies and insurance companies, thus making the US financial industry bid farewell to legislation The history of separate operations has been broken, and the era of mixed operations has entered.

Initially, the "Glass-Steagall Act" (also known as the "Banking Act of 1933"), as one of the new policies implemented by President Roosevelt after he took office, played a positive role in two aspects: first, it was in line with the national interest at that time , working together with other laws and policies, effectively curbed the root cause of the disaster - the chaos in the capital market and restored the public's confidence in the country and the financial system; Bank common welcome.However, after entering the 1990s, in order to survive and develop, the U.S. banking industry deeply reflected on the defects caused by the "Glass-Steagall Act", and began to find ways to avoid the legal obstacles of separate operations. Means such as investment banking and financial innovation penetrated into the securities industry.At the same time, the U.S. financial community launched a campaign initiated by commercial banks and subsequently joined by the securities industry and the insurance industry to lobby the U.S. government and Congress, requesting the removal of restrictions on cross-industry operations, revision or abolition of the Act, and finally succeeded.However, financial regulation and financial innovation are two different sides of the same coin.

Therefore, after enacting the "Glass-Steagall Act" in 1933, the U.S. Congress successively promulgated a series of "Securities Exchange Act of 1934", "Investment Company Act of 1940", "Williams Act of 1968" and so on. Act, thus gradually forming the basic framework of the financial separation management system.This series of measures made great achievements in financial innovation in the United States in the following ten years.In particular, after the business of the world's manufacturing economy has been gradually transferred to China, it has brought many challenges to the US economy, forcing the US's economic structure to begin to adjust, and the economic focus has begun to focus on finance, technological innovation and the sales market.The reform of the above-mentioned institutional framework has played a great role in promoting the United States to strengthen its advantages in economic competition.Therefore, this financial crisis cannot be blamed on the economic innovation system of the United States, otherwise the economic growth point in the next ten years will be a question mark, and the innovation vitality it should lose will be lost.It is unrealistic for the United States to return to a manufacturing-dominated economic structure, because it simply cannot compete with developing countries in terms of labor costs.In addition, cross-industry operations appeared in this financial crisis. After the complete liberalization, the continuous extension of the transaction chain brought about, which led to the gradual enlargement of moral hazard and distortions in all aspects of entrustment and agency. Therefore, this crisis was exposed in time. This is not a bad thing in a larger sense.

From the comprehensive operation directly to the mixed operation, after entering the mixed operation, the chain has undergone tremendous changes.In the era of comprehensive management, functional supervision is effective, but after mixed operation, functional supervision also has many problems.However, after the "9.11" incident, the United States issued a "Patriot Act", which imposed a very large restriction on the investment of Asian and African companies, especially Chinese companies, in the US.For example, if a Chinese company wants to list in the United States, the fund must be frozen half a year ago, which will pay a huge opportunity cost.What do you think about the problems with the Patriot Act? Chen Zhiwu: What you are talking about is actually a very new question.When I was in Geneva, Switzerland earlier, I had a very deep feeling.The local population is very sparse, but the country is very rich. They basically do not produce anything. Of course, there are world-popular Swiss army knives and Swiss watches, but overall they account for a small proportion of the gross national product, and they mainly rely on the financial service industry for development.The development of the Swiss banking industry has benefited from the institutional defects of developing countries.As long as there are countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America where the protection of private property is not perfect, the business needs of Swiss private banks will continue to develop at a high speed, and there will be a lot of room for the country's economic development. It can be said that Switzerland's economic growth is due to the imperfect legal system and imperfect protection of private property in some developing countries such as Latin America and Africa.The two are exactly inversely proportional.Understanding the Patriot Act from this perspective, it can be said that it is beneficial to the financial industry in the United States; but it will hit private banks in Switzerland, including Singapore and Hong Kong. Originally, they also wanted to join the similar financial industry in Switzerland to provide this The business of privacy protection.From another perspective, this kind of crackdown is very unfavorable to the competition in the systems of various countries.Because private banks like Switzerland that serve wealthy families and legal persons in developing countries will have lower and lower credit ratings. In fact, the existence of this kind of financial service industry has created an institutional pressure on countries with imperfect legal systems and weak protection of private property.Because in the end, as long as these countries differ greatly in these basic systems, there will be a lot of room for institutional arbitrage brought to countries like Switzerland.Then Switzerland uses this kind of institutional arbitrage to put a lot of pressure on countries with imperfect systems and poor protection of private property rights. This forces more countries, including China, to try their best to follow the so-called international law in terms of private property protection and legal framework. Close up horizontally.However, with the "Patriot Act" in the United States, Swiss banks and all financial institutions around the world are forced to create some GDP in the United States and other countries in the short term.In this sense, perhaps the officially announced GDP has some imaginary elements, but in general, all the signs that can be seen indicate that there is hope for economic recovery. When the crisis comes, it is wrong for local governments to rescue enterprises first.Specifically, what aspects should the future reforms start in order to achieve the effect of comprehensive guidance? Wei Jianing: To deal with the impact of the financial crisis, the first thing to do is to strengthen the financial safety net.The financial safety net has three pillars. The first is the prudential regulatory system, namely the China Banking Regulatory Commission; the second is the central bank with the function of the lender of last resort, namely the People's Bank of China; and the deposit insurance institution that protects the interests of small and medium depositors and prevents systemic risks , China has not yet.You can see that after the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States, the deposit insurance was immediately increased from 200,000 US dollars to 250,000 US dollars to strengthen the deposit insurance system; then Germany implemented full insurance; Australia also announced that it will implement full insurance within three years ; Kuwait also guarantees deposits.Everyone is doing this one after another, but our country has not yet established a deposit insurance system.So, this is a big hole in China's financial safety net.The second thing is to strengthen the construction of the social safety net, that is, social security. Because adjustments are required, some enterprises will close down, and if there are closures, there will be unemployment.Now many unemployed migrant workers return home early, which creates a problem, that is, social insurance and endowment insurance cannot be taken away. Social insurance is not connected to the whole country, and it cannot roam across provinces. This is a big problem that needs to be solved urgently.When migrant workers withdraw their insurance, they can only get back the part they have paid, and the part paid by the enterprise cannot be taken away.Social security has not been connected to the national network for a long time, which involves coordinating the balance of interests between localities, especially rich and backward regions.Like the wealthy Guangdong Province, the development within the province is uneven, and the level of social security is also different, not to mention inter-provincial problems.Wealthy areas are unwilling to shoulder the burden of poverty from outsiders, and poor areas are unable to solve the problem of security for so many people.Therefore, instead of pouring money into projects to pave roads and build bridges, it is better to strengthen the construction of social safety nets.Infrastructure construction still cannot finally solve the problem, because it is the large state-owned enterprises that benefit, and it is difficult for private small and medium-sized enterprises to get a share of the pie. Unemployed people have no security, no food, no housing, which will cause many social problems and bring a lot of instability.The current situation is that when the crisis comes, the local government first rescues the enterprises, which is wrong.Under market conditions, the life and death of an enterprise are determined by the market. If the government rescues the enterprise, the enterprise will lose efficiency, and it will cause great dependence and moral hazard.Business operations that do not comply with market laws will go bankrupt, and the key depends on how many new businesses are born.What the government wants to solve is that after the bankruptcy of the enterprise, the unemployed workers must have food and social security, so that it will not affect social stability.Therefore, the most urgent task is to strengthen the social safety net, and the central government should increase investment.The investment of government funds here can really solve the problems of people's livelihood.So the third thing is to support small and medium-sized enterprises and establish a complete set of financial service system for small and medium-sized enterprises.Including, the government first established a policy bank to serve small and medium-sized enterprises, and there is no one in China so far; then it established a micro-credit company, "undercover" the underground money bank, standardized it, and turned it into a private small and medium-sized bank.The establishment of guarantee companies, mutual aid cooperatives, etc. can explore diversified financial service models to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. What problems exist in China's financial supervision?Under the special background of the government's large-scale rescue measures, will the deregulation of price controls be put on the agenda? Jiang Ping: I think gradual liberalization is in line with the laws of the market.Of course, the situation is different now. In the past few years, commodity prices were difficult to control. The price of oil was soaring, and the price of coal and electricity was also rising.The current situation is that product prices have dropped, and the crisis caused by uncontrollable prices has been much smaller, so now is a better time to straighten out the price relationship.For example, in the past, power plants would lose a lot of money if they produced more kilowatt-hours of electricity. Now that the price of thermal coal has dropped sharply, this situation basically does not exist.The price should be in balance with the cost. It cannot be said that you will lose a lot of money if you produce more kilowatt-hours of electricity. This must be changed. Otherwise, the producers will not be motivated, and only state-owned enterprises will be left to do it, and the state will have to subsidize you.So, I think now is the time to straighten out the price, the price should be better resolved.Coal, electricity, oil and transportation, these most basic livelihood products, should conform to market laws as much as possible. With regard to the government's current structural tax cuts and promotion of tax and fee reforms, Premier Wen Jiabao said that in 2009, various methods such as tax cuts, tax rebates or tax credits will be adopted to reduce the tax burden of enterprises and residents, promote enterprise investment and residents' consumption, and strengthen microeconomic economic vitality.How to reform the tax system, I think two issues can be considered: First, the current tax problem in China is mainly due to the heavy burden on operators. Excessive taxation is definitely not conducive to the operation of enterprises, especially in the financial crisis when a large number of enterprises closed down. Under the circumstances, if you don't reduce or exempt taxes, you can't have too much enthusiasm.Therefore, in this context, the state should support the enthusiasm for investment and pay taxes to the people.The second is to narrow the gap between incomes, such as personal income tax, the threshold of 2,000 yuan is too low, right?The government work report pointed out: "The international financial crisis is still spreading and has not yet bottomed out. The demand in the international market continues to shrink, the global deflation trend is obvious, trade protectionism is on the rise, the external economic environment is more severe, and uncertainties have increased significantly." Under this situation, the biggest problem for export companies is that unforeseen risks have increased. Due to exchange rate, price or government control, some original contract promises are difficult to fulfill in the end. If you need a legal environment to solve this problem, it is very necessary to include possible risk factors when you enter into an international contract transaction.For example, when the international raw material prices fluctuate, the two parties are allowed to negotiate again, especially when the exchange rate fluctuates sharply, the terms should be noted, so as to avoid losses.Therefore, we should now pay more attention to the foresight, scientificity and accuracy in the contract.In the law, if a problem arises between the two parties, the contract is the only basis.Now that there are "Transaction Law" and "International Trade Law", there should be laws to follow. The key is whether we can define them more accurately.I think this is promising and very operable.Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the central government has begun to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, requiring monetary policy to play a more active role in promoting economic growth.For a while, local government bonds and private finance were quickly released, but there is no legal basis for this. How and how much are issued by the local governments, and what is the guarantee system?In the absence of legal protection, buyers cannot know the foresight of risks. This kind of problem should be promoted by improving the legal system.Our country often promotes some measures because of reforms, and legislation is done first.In fact, the administrative power is too great, and I disagree with some practices.Therefore, although China's financial problems are not as huge as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the problems of China's financial supervision are still worrying, and the risks cannot be ignored. Slowly transform the past savings-based approach to investment-based.According to your observation, China's financial system will usher in a revolutionary change after ten years of laying the foundation. The current financial structure based on banks will be completely changed. In the future, China's financial system will be built on the capital market as the center basically.What are the reasons why you are optimistic about China's capital market? Wu Xiaoqiu: The transformation of China's financial system is inevitable, because it involves the structural design of financial functions.I said earlier that China's financial system should change from the original commercial banks as the main body to the capital market as the platform. However, after the financial crisis, some people began to waver in the strategic goal of this reform.Because the financial system in the United States, where the crisis originated, is centered on the capital market, this concern is understandable.However, if the United States does not have such a financial system, it will not have the success it achieved later, but will encounter even greater problems. The current financial system disperses this risk.Although the financial system of the United States has been hit hard, it can still survive through good financial structure design.It can be said that the financial system based on the capital market is still very important.Because the function of the modern financial system is shifting from resource allocation to risk allocation, that is, how the financial system makes risks flow and disperses risks. This is the first thing it must consider. This is a very important function and goal of the modern financial system. In the past, this problem was always ignored. People only knew how to allocate resources, but did not think of mobilizing the assets of the whole society through securitization to disperse risks.Therefore, in addition to a relatively high resource allocation efficiency, China's financial system also needs to have the function of diversifying risks.The approval by the State Council of Shanghai to build an international financial center is also out of strategic considerations for the development of the capital market.Because there is no capital market, it is difficult to find a platform for many reforms.For example, ICBC cannot be listed, and the reform of commercial banks will always be a self-circulating reform. The common people will not be able to buy its stocks, and it will be difficult to obtain ICBC's dividends, let alone the appreciation of ICBC's assets.At the same time, it is also difficult for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to establish a modern commercial banking system, and normal business will be greatly disturbed.Once there is a capital market, a modern financial system will slowly build up, even when the financial crisis is severe.I am convinced that this strategic goal will be achieved.Some domestic scholars always think that China's financial system should be centered on commercial banks, because the banking system accounts for 80% of financial resources.As everyone knows, this is exactly what we need to reform, and it is also a manifestation of the backwardness of China's financial system.I believe that in another twenty years, the proportion of resources allocated through the financial market will exceed 50%, which is an inevitable law of the development of the financial structure. At that time, after people earn a surplus, the first choice will no longer be the bank, but must choose the asset allocation in the capital market to obtain a better return.In fact, that is to say, we will slowly change the way we used to focus on saving to investment.Of course, this is also closely related to the improvement of people's living standards.When the standard of living is improved and the food problem is solved, people will naturally pay attention to the growth of their stock wealth.A strong country's financial strategy requires a well-developed capital market and the internationalization of the local currency. With regard to the rise of China's economy, you pointed out that a powerful financial strategy with a spirit of change and in line with the development trend of modern finance is needed.Without a monetary policy that promotes changes in the financial structure, it is impossible to form a strong country's financial strategy.So, what adjustments do you think should be made to the current monetary policy? Wu Xiaoqiu: The main problem of China's monetary policy is that the target is relatively materialized, and the focus is on CPI.Sometimes price changes have little to do with capital and currency.For example, if prices rise by 5%, is it caused by too much currency, or is it caused by economic restructuring?This needs to be studied; as another example, the sharp rise in oil prices in 2007 will indeed cause an increase in the overall price level, but this may not have much to do with the currency.It is a strategic resource and relatively scarce.Therefore, I think that in addition to paying attention to CPI, China's monetary policy must also pay attention to structural changes in the financial system. To promote structural changes in the financial system and pay attention to changes in asset prices, this is a very major transformation.The core issue of a strong country's financial strategy is to have a developed capital market and the internationalization of the local currency.Why is such a powerful financial strategy needed?Because this kind of financial system can use global resources for my own use under open conditions.If it is both open and liquid, China's capital market can absorb a large amount of external funds, which can obviously promote China's economic growth.The development of the United States is inseparable from its financial strategy as a powerful country.Why China has been buying U.S. treasury bonds is because of the global currency mechanism centered on the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. has a relatively liquid financial market, so you have to own U.S. dollars and invest in the U.S. market.This is the financial strategy of a strong country.When an economic system is getting bigger and bigger, in order to maintain sustained and stable growth, it is difficult to maintain only relying on domestic resources. It must absorb resources from other countries through a strong and open financial system.The financial systems of South Korea and Japan do not have this function. They basically use non-financial factors to maintain growth for 15 years and become developed countries.But now the economic growth of these two countries generally appears to be stagnating, because there is no strong financial system.Why can the United States maintain a century of growth?Because there is a very powerful resource allocation mechanism behind it - the financial system.Looking at China again, just the release of population resources and institutions is enough to maintain rapid and strong growth for 15 years. But what we have to think about is how to maintain sustained and stable growth for 100 years.Obviously, it is necessary to be different from other countries in the design of the financial system structure, and to learn from the United States.This is the underlying reason why I call for building a financial strategy for a strong country.In the process of implementing the financial strategy of strengthening the country, the risks of the capital market will become more and more internationalized, and the market volatility will increase. This point must be fully understood.The rise of China's finance will require us to speed up the process of promoting democracy and legalization, and there must be no such thing as someone changing the rules with a single word.When investors from all over the world come to China to invest and hold your stocks and government bonds, it is impossible for you to change the rules at will!It must be carried out in accordance with legal procedures and international norms, and the information must be transparent.I always believe that the opening and development of finance and the construction of a democratic and legal society are complementary.The development and internationalization of the financial market may be an important driving force for the continuous improvement of China's social democracy and legal system.This may be the process of democratization of China's financial system.Isn't that what we want to build such a society?If I have a different view from other scholars, it is that I realized from a strategic point of view that the development of the financial market, especially the development of the capital market, is a powerful driving force for China's economic rise, and at the same time it is the foundation of China's democracy and the rule of law .The crisis has weakened the competitiveness of the U.S. financial system, and U.S. policies are weakening the long-term credibility of the dollar. This means that there are cracks in the original financial and monetary system, and the cracks give room for new currencies and new financial forces to grow.China can just use this huge rift to promote the internationalization of the renminbi and to promote the great development of the financial market. The internationalization of the RMB is a strong guarantee for a new round of development of China's economy, and it is a powerful vanguard. The development of the capital market is the main force for China's financial rise.In 2009, the Chinese central government repeatedly made big moves to carry out RMB settlement trials for cross-border trade in five major cities in China, and vigorously promoted Shanghai's plan to build an international financial center.The strength and significance of these measures are not insignificant, but there is still a basic question: Can the RMB be implemented? Wu Xiaoqiu: I believe that RMB can be internationalized.For a country's currency to become an international currency, its industry must be unique and non-replicable.Although China's industry is not yet fully equipped with this point, the overall economic development situation is good, and the RMB has a good international credit. At the same time, the long-term credit of the US dollar is now weakened to some extent. That is to say, in the global monetary system Gaps have already appeared, and if a new stable currency appears at this time, it will slowly be accepted by people. We can see that this time the international financial crisis has triggered a deep reflection on various drawbacks of the dollar-centered currency system. Countries hope to reform the current international monetary system on the basis of continuous comparison and measurement.When the benefits of breaking the existing monetary system outweigh the costs and become a continuous expectation, the US dollar will no longer be able to maintain its status as the only international currency.The diversified and open pattern of world trade, as well as the changing trend of the world financial reserve system and the world trade settlement system, have prompted the global monetary system to undergo fundamental adjustments.The reform of the international monetary system from unipolarity to pluralism will comprehensively enhance the status of currencies such as the euro, the renminbi, and the yen.Although the renminbi is not currently an international reserve currency, or even a tradable currency, China has growing comprehensive national strength and is the largest creditor country of the United States, so it has a force that cannot be ignored. In rebuilding the international monetary system, on the one hand, China must actively participate in the reform process of the international monetary system, integrate the power of emerging economies and developing countries, and strive for more voice; on the other hand, it should actively create favorable conditions and accelerate the promotion of The pace of internationalization of the RMB has become an important currency in the multi-currency international currency system.The financial crisis will inevitably have a negative impact on China's foreign trade, but in terms of trade structure, China's exports are mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products and low-priced products, and the income elasticity is relatively small. Demand for these goods may rise instead of fall when income falls.At the same time, China has partially alleviated the impact of changes in the international economic situation on China's imports and exports by adopting a series of measures such as raising the export tax rebate rate of certain industries and improving the foreign trade environment.Therefore, China's foreign trade under the financial crisis is facing severe challenges, but there are also favorable factors.In addition, the crisis has forced China to upgrade its trade structure and improve product competitiveness and technological content, which will enhance trade payment options and currency influence, and is conducive to the advancement of the RMB internationalization process.中国要实现从大国向强国的转变，必须解决贸易大国与金融小国的矛盾。这需要依托金融的崛起，而金融崛起则要求拥有国际化的货币环境。 在目前全球金融危机下各国综合实力此消彼长的较量中，总体而言，人民币国际化机遇大于挑战。如果要想牢牢抓住历史机遇，贸易将是一个突破口。这要求我们必须进一步扩大人民币在周边国家和地区结算、投资的使用范围。政府近期公布的人民币跨境贸易结算措施，从短期来看，主要是为国内的外贸企业规避汇率风险所采取的重要措施；长期来看，它是人民币国际化迈出的关键一步。此外，中国还要积极稳妥推进亚洲区域货币合作，使人民币在周边国家和地区包括整个亚洲率先实现区域化。最后，不仅在周边国家和地区还要在世界范围内，不仅在实体贸易上还要在金融投资上，逐步放松对人民币兑换、交易的限制，最终使之成为完全可交易的货币和重要的国际储备货币。当然，区域化只是人民币国际化进程中非常短期的目标。我认为，到2020年，人民币将成为全球第二大货币，目标也就是超过欧元。这一目标非常重要，中国在相当长时间不要成为老大，一定是美元在前面，中国排在第二。 因为，美国虽然遭受金融危机重创，但它毕竟是全球金融体系100多年的霸主，世界经济格局短期之内难以撼动。中国若与之竞争，还为时过早，短期内的工作重点应该放在与美元共同发展上。不过，国际货币体系在未来一段时期有可能出现欧元和美元争夺主导权、日元和人民币伺机出击的局面。最终能否出现多强鼎立的局面，仍将取决于博弈各方的力量消长。但从单极到多元的国际货币体系改革是必然发展趋势。人民币国际化需要一个具有足够广度、深度的金融市场尤其是资本市场来支撑。发展资本市场，首先要通过持续加强制度建设和完善法制体系来实现规范发展，以有效解决资本市场下的“逆向选择”和“道德风险”问题，从而增强对市场主体和资金的吸引力，实现资本的可持续流动，保持资本市场的健康稳定；其次，要完善结构，不仅注重股市，还要注重债市与金融衍生产品及市场的发展培育。在产品创新上把握尺度，加强产品设计各环节风险控制和风险管理；最后，制定全球化发展战略，要树立起大国心志、大国视野和大国责任意识，把中国资本市场培育成新世纪国际金融中心和全球重要的资产配置中心或财富管理中心。 创业板上市是否能解中小企业融资困境？ 目前，中国创业板上市的有关政策业已明朗化，但此前您却认为创业板出台为之过早，不知您持此态度的缘由是什么？ 吴晓求：我对创业板的理解经过了几个阶段。早期，从资本市场结构的角度考量，需要呼吁推出一个孵化中小企业的市场；之后，开始思考资本市场的风险结构设计，包括社会公众、原始股东、风险投资应该承担什么样的风险，这些是必须分清职责的。原来有观点认为，创业板上市能够解决中小企业急于融资的困境，我认为是不合适的。因为资本市场对融资的要求很高，实际上是一个并不便宜的融资渠道，它对股东的回报超过债务的回报。就是说，如果到银行都融不到资的话，到创业板就更成问题。我们可以看到，创业板政策的出台非常谨慎，到创业板上市还是有条件的，上市的条件虽然比主板低，但上市后的监管则更严格。第一，门槛不能太低。股本现在已提高到3000万元，而且还必须有赢利要求，有一套财务标准，主要是为了过滤风险。第二，创业板企业上市之后，要对控股股东的减持行为进行严密监控。减持条件从理论上讲要比主板苛刻，因为创业板主要是一些规模比较小的企业，控股股东一旦跑了，企业就完了。所以，对控股股东的减持要吸取股权分置改革的经验和教训。 控股股东每年减持不能超过所持股份的10%，按照这个标准十年之后才能减持完。第三，一定要对创业板的违规、违法行为进行最严厉的处罚。这中间没有警告，也没有停牌，上市公司和控股股东，一旦有严重的违规、违法行为，那就要迅速退市，而且是永久退市。创业板首先是个高风险的市场，其次才是个高成长的市场，要跟投资者说清楚。第四，要把壳资源废掉，创业板没有什么壳资源。把以上四条做好，创业板才会有希望。如果没有这些约束，让创业板任意发展下去则会对中国资本市场带来巨大的灾难，可能会变成“成事不足，败事有余”。值得欣慰的是，这些观点正在被有关部门逐渐接受，在逐步落实。人性是贪婪的，没有制度约束，贪婪的人性会无节制地膨胀。2009年6月18日，上交所和深交所就重启IPO发布的有关办法已实施，关闭长达九个月的A股IPO大门重新打开。我认为IPO重启，没有什么指数标准，甚至也没有什么最佳时机。纯粹来说，发行上市是有标准的，符合标准即可IPO。IPO重启不应与指数挂钩，而应该按照正常发行规则走。把IPO重启当做市场调控的砝码是不恰当的，不能认为指数越低，重启IPO的风险就越大。 IPO是中性的，在一定意义上有利于股市的发展。我认为只要是成长性的、信息透明的上市公司，资本市场都欢迎。股市回暖实际上是投资者对美元贬值的担忧。 对于上半年股市转暖的话题，您曾表示“资源能源股价格的上涨并不是由实体经济需求引起的”，那会是什么原因导致的呢？ 吴晓求：前段时间资源股价格涨得非常快，这并不是经济回暖所带来的需求增长。实际上是投资者对美元贬值的担忧，从而带来资源配置性需求的提升。事实上，在美元贬值预期下，投资于战略资源是一种避险行为，资源配置结构调整之后，所带来的需求不是因为经济回暖，而是一种避险需求。这种上涨是不会长久的，经过一段时间后就会稳定下来。关于2009年股市的走势，基本上是一种上升态势，当然这种上升在下半年是会有波动的，预计在2000点到4000点左右徘徊。现在的行情，实际上就是2008年大幅度、非理性下跌的一个校正，使之回到一个正常的价值体系中。我认为，3000点左右是比较符合目前的经济情况的。 当然，整个的经济回暖还需要一定的时间，中国的情况大概会比其它国家率先复苏。这主要有两个理由。第一，中国的银行体系是健康的，信贷市场不但没有收缩，反而在大规模扩张，这样就有资金支撑并推动实体经济率先复苏。欧美国家主要是金融体系受到了严重影响，从而信贷市场大幅度收缩。第二，中国经济增长的需求结构发生了变化，内需正在扩张，而美国内需已经不可能再扩张。我们经济增长的新动力正在形成。因此，中国的股票市场往上涨，是有经济好转预期的。应该说2009年的市场不会出现2007年疯长的情况，应该是相对理性的上升趋势。 中国资本市场好基础已形成，改革需深化。您怎么看待中国资本市场的整体情况？ 吴晓求：中国资本市场的整体发展情况，应该说已经处于一个良性发展的过程中。 过去几年，我们花大力气解决了制约中国资本市场发展的三大问题，从而为中国资本市场的发展奠定了良好基础。 一是股权分置改革。改革的成功为资本市场发展奠定了非常好的制度平台。如若不然，中国的资本市场是没有前途的。 二是资本市场的资金管理体制发生了根本性的变化。2006年之前，证券公司都是准银行，每个人买股票都要到证券公司存钱，证券公司把客户的钱分成三部分，一是结算，二是自营，三是同业存款。所以，经常会出现证券公司挪用客户保证金的情况。市场一旦大跌，证券公司便纷纷破产。但是，这次股市从6000多点下到1600多点，没有一家证券公司破产，原因是我们改革了资金管理制度，从原来的证券公司保管客户的保证金，到现在由第三方也就是银行来保管，中间有一个非常高的防火墙。以前的证券公司是市场风险的放大器，市场涨的时候，它挪用保证金助市场上涨；市场下跌的时候它又疯狂地抛售，这就加剧了市场的波动。因此，资本市场资金管理制度的改革和完善，为中国资本市场的规范提供了良好的外部环境。 三是克服了中国资本市场发展的资源约束。这指的是2006年5月份之后海外蓝筹股的回归。蓝筹股的回归确实为中国资本市场发展注入了强大的动力。 如果没有它们的回归，全是一些小公司，这样的市场还有什么价值？有了大量蓝筹股，才有大量资金通过基金等方式进入中国资本市场，这个市场才会成为财富管理的中枢。上述三大改革，的确使中国资本市场走上了健康发展的道路。当然，中国资本市场目前并非没有问题，比如虚假信息披露、内幕交易、操纵市场等都还不同程度地存在。还有一些亟待改革的地方。股权分置改革给市场留下了一些值得关注的问题，例如，大股东利用减持的机会来操纵市场，有的利用他们的信息优势，在进行实质意义上的内幕交易。最近，我发现上市公司高管们减持非常严重。在高位减持，相关部门要对此严格监控。在高管离任一年之后才能允许减持。无论是大股东还是高管，一般情况下不能随意买自身的股票，只有当市场遇到重大危机，下跌得一塌糊涂时，为稳定股价，才能允许增持或上市公司回购。如果说股权分置改革留下了一些后遗症的话，那就是大小非解禁到期之后，对于减持比例和节奏没有作出相应规定，这对股市的稳定会带来一些问题。 另外，还有一个问题，即中国市场如何更好地开放，毕竟中国市场还是要做大做强的。中国政府决定把上海建设成为新世纪的国际金融中心，这个中心的核心是资本市场，所以开放是必然的趋势。全球的金融体系很容易被美国“绑架”。持续增长的高额外汇储备让中国亦喜亦忧。记得您曾表示，完全不认同“投资美国国债是中国外汇储备资产结构最优选择”的说法，称是被迫的选择。为什么这样讲？ 吴晓求：中国的外汇储备之所以这么多，是和长期的贸易顺差、FDI联系在一起的，是目前外汇管理制度的必然结果。首先，中国无论是贸易顺差越来越大，还是外汇储备越来越多，我始终认为是全球贸易和投资保护主义的结果。实际上全球贸易和投资保护主义已经非常严重。本来中国的产品价廉物美，利用我们自身非常廉价的劳动力和廉价的资源，使得中国制造的日用消费品占据全世界消费品的80%。出现巨大的贸易顺差之后，我们想买一些中国经济发展所需要的战略资源，或者是目前还不具备优势的一些高科技产品，以此平衡我们的贸易收支，相互弥补、共同发展。 一个国家不可能包打天下，它有自己的优势，也有自己的劣势。比如说美国，显而易见它的高科技产品是贸易优势，中国需要的就是用消费品交换它的高科技产品。后来发现美国人不卖高科技产品给我们，这样中国就产生巨大的贸易顺差了，这就是贸易保护主义带来的无奈。第二，中国的外汇储备这么多，也是投资保护主义的结果。中国逐渐富裕之后，我们的企业想去国外投资，却发现国外投资是难以想象地艰难。中国自改革开放以来，成为世界上最开放的国家，有的地方不惜省长出动带队踏出国门招商引资。一旦我们的企业要去欧美投资，人家就觉得你有什么动机似的，像要来颠覆这个国家一样，对你严加防范、相当排斥。中国企业出国投资很不容易。反观自己，我们在某些方面似乎对外有点儿过于开放了。媒体经常报道，国内的很多矿产莫名其妙地就被外国人买走了！基于此，我建议，政府相关部门应当制定相应的法律法规：所有的地下战略资源严格禁止外资进入。 你看这次收购力拓，我们花185亿美元人家都不同意，他们不就是这样做的吗？本来跨国投资可以减少中国的外汇储备，但是阻力重重，投资不成就只能换成美元了，而美元一直不断贬值，无奈的出路就是买进美国国债。所以，购买美国国债是被迫的选择，是贸易保护和投资保护主义的牺牲品，一个受害的结果，决不是最优的选择。源头出在目前全球是单一的货币体系。单一美元货币体系有很大问题，它没有约束，全球的金融体系很容易被美国绑架。 在应对金融危机中，美国政府除了通过刺激财政，剩下的伎俩就是通过大量发行美元来刺激需求；但大量发行美元就意味着持有美元及美元资产的国家资产贬值，中国首当其冲。现在中国已经是受害者，所以我们必须改革，推动全球金融结构和货币体系的改革，反对各种形式的贸易和投资保护主义。要改变目前的情况，首先必须改革国际货币体系，也就说国际货币体系结构上要有制衡，要有多样化选择。对中国来说，就是要推动人民币国际化的进程。其次，还必须调整全球金融市场结构，现在美国是全世界最重要的资产市场，但是一个不够，应该出现几个同等重要的资产市场，比如中国。因此，要改革现行的国际货币体系，构造新的金融秩序，就要建设新的金融中心，就要让人民币逐步成为新的国际货币体系中的重要一员，才能够改变目前的状况。这是一个宏大的战略。