Chapter 54 China's challenges

This is the test of "Central America".China also faces the challenge of realizing that its size and scale mean that it can no longer just be a recipient of international trade, and that China can no longer focus on domestic and neighboring countries, but on global Play a more active role within the scope.To some extent, China has already begun to play such a role.Over the past few years, Hu Jintao and other leaders have visited more countries than any previous Chinese leader.However, the main purpose of their visits is to promote bilateral relations with the countries visited.The existence and development of the international economic system depends on China to a certain extent, and China must play an active role in promoting the development of the international economic system.Like the United States, China is also facing a weakening of power, and its unilateral actions are subject to more restrictions.But unlike the US, China has shown greater adaptability to the world.

Facing the new international situation, the Obama administration has shown maturity and composure.Compared with the past, this is a positive change in the United States.However, there are still various signals that many Americans do not accept China's rise, nor do they accept the mutually beneficial coexistence of China and the United States.The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the official government agency that submits its annual report to Congress, continues to view China as an adversary that undermines U.S. interests and weakens U.S. security.In a report submitted in late 2008, the committee concluded that "China's strong government control of the economy to maintain an export advantage over other countries has resulted in China accumulating nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange and using it to manipulate its currency Trade and diplomatic relations with other countries.” The facts are indisputable: the Chinese government does have a strong grip on the economy and is seeking to maintain an edge in China’s exports; China’s foreign exchange reserves do indeed stand at $2 trillion .However, the committee's statements are likely to cause people to misunderstand the facts and cause Americans to worry.

The committee also pointed out some practical problems in the report, including China's hidden tariffs, which benefit Chinese products and enterprises while harming the interests of foreign companies.However, the continuous formulation of common rules and the continuous reduction of trade barriers do not mean that all countries can reach and achieve complete agreement. Even a loyal ally like Israel will carry out "espionage activities" against the United States in an attempt to obtain American military Confidential; Japan, South Korea, and many European allies are also violating World Trade Organization rules by maintaining food subsidies and tariffs; the United States will also implement protectionism in different areas for a certain period of time, such as cotton, soybeans, and certain industrial products. .Trade may become increasingly free, but perfect fairness is only a myth.

Many Americans also believe that growing dependence on China is a critical and dangerous weakness of the United States.What they see is the serious weakening of the US manufacturing base and the stagnation of workers' wages. What they see is that US companies have shifted their business to the global (including China) market in order to cut employees' medical care and pension expenses.Many labor unions strongly oppose the view that China has positively impacted the employment, purchasing power and income levels of American workers. On the contrary, they believe that only large American companies benefit from China, and it is not only the majority of Americans who suffer. life, and America's long-term prosperity.That view has dominated the debate over issues such as CNOOC's bid for Unocal.

Many Chinese are also uneasy.Some openly condemn market capitalism as a lifeless path, while others believe that the world still looks down on China and seeks opportunities to profit from it.They believe that the losses suffered by Chinese state-owned funds investing in American financial institutions are proof that other countries, especially Western countries, still regard China as a fool. However, these views fail to recognize that the established facts cannot be changed.Good or bad, "Central America" ​​has become an unalterable fact, and failure to act on it can have enormously destructive consequences.China needs the US, and the US needs China.Over the past 20 years, the Chinese and American economies have become integrated far beyond Chinese manufacturing and American consumption.In fact, now and in the future, the prominent feature of Sino-US integration will be that China consumes American products and provides financial support to the US government, providing development opportunities for US companies.The development of Sino-U.S. integration cannot be stopped unless both governments take containment measures. Once Sino-U.S. integration is stopped, the consequences will be disastrous.

Yes, if the U.S. economy further deteriorates in the next few years, a new wave of isolationism and protectionism may be set off in the United States.If Americans' self-concept cannot adapt to the changing world, if Americans still cling to outdated concepts and emphasize the strength and importance of themselves, then this will also become an obstacle to the further development of global business, especially "Central America".If the benefits of the development of "Middle America" ​​are enjoyed by only a few, many will oppose and prevent its development. The obstacles to the development of "Central America" ​​are more likely to come from the United States, and the reason is simple.America is now acutely aware of its weaknesses and is still seeking new strengths.Even as Americans are withdrawing from high-loan speculation, they see the unregulated model of capitalism crumbling.Massive stimulus spending has helped, but many Americans remain hopeful that the U.S. will regain its dominance of the world once the economy is rebalanced.The voices advocating a confrontational policy toward less friendly countries have diminished, but have not disappeared.

But for almost everyone in China over the age of 20, today's world offers opportunities and freedoms that were unimaginable 20 years ago.This kind of opportunity and freedom does not mean being able to eat KFC, being able to use Avon lip balm and Olay facial cleanser, but being able to travel freely, buy a house, move from one city to another, be able to find a new job, be able to see the The hope of working hard to improve the life of yourself and your family, without worrying that it will all be dashed because of some sudden and unpredictable actions taken by the country. Environmental degradation is a serious negative concern, but the Chinese government is aware of this problem, and although progress in improving the environment has been slow, the Chinese government has begun to take action to solve this problem.

Some people believe that the foundation of China's economic development is not solid, with too much state intervention, too much spending on big projects, too little corporate activity, and insufficient innovation and personal consumption.In fact, no one knows what the secret formula of economic success is.For a long time, the opening of the market and the reduction of state intervention advocated by the US government have been generally accepted, but later facts have proved that such a system also has major flaws.If there were indeed a clear road map to prosperity, all would follow the path it marked.If anyone can assert the development results of China's unique path, they can only deceive themselves and others.

There will almost certainly be other obstacles to the development of "Central America."How much space is there for the transfer of state power?Even when the EU states are united voluntarily, national publics and governments are wary of delegating power to the EU headquarters.The European public supports the EU, willing to give up some autonomy in exchange for the greater good.But even then, they have resisted the loss of national identity.The public in China and the United States has never expressed approval for the integration of the financial and economic systems of the two countries, and the future path of Sino-US integration will be more complicated.

The bigger question is whether China (not to mention India and the billions of people in the "emerging world") will continue to industrialize at a rapid pace, rapidly depleting natural resources and emitting more greenhouse gases.It is difficult to see a sustainable prospect for this development.What would the world be like if every family in China, India, and Brazil wanted to own a car, have all kinds of appliances, live in a big house, and experience all kinds of luxuries?Where will resources come from?The urgent need for development of Western capitalism is growing, but is there a limit to this need?Will the development of technology and innovation be able to solve the problem again?Do seemingly insoluble problems faced by one generation become trivial in the next? At the beginning of the 19th century, few people could have imagined that the world would be able to support 1 billion people, let alone 6 billion, 7 billion, 8 billion or even more.But with the age of steam, with the use of chemical fertilizers and new crop varieties, producing enough food to feed this population is no longer a problem.

These are longer-term issues facing the United States, China, and the world.To be sure, China has risen and is beginning to focus on the unique fusion of China and the United States, which is between the world's largest economy and the most dynamic economic growth.The American century lasted less than a century, and China's rise was neither unexpected nor extraordinary.Changes in the world, the rise and fall of countries, and the change of power status are the eternal melody of historical development, which is well known.That's why some people have doubts: Why is China's rise met with so many doubts?No matter what the world looks like in the future, China will be part of its core, and it is futile to try to stop, change or limit this trajectory.Although there are always people trying to stop the pace of change, no one can hinder the development and change of history. Right now, despite the pain and introspection of the first decade of the 21st century, we live in an era that is more stable and secure than the public perceives.Material life is more abundant than at any time in human history, and the risk of disease or death from hunger and war is less than at most times in the past.China's stability and prosperity today have greatly surpassed history.True, some parts of the world still suffer from violence and poverty, but most people's material standard of living is better than ever. In short, even if the United States and developed countries are mired in slowing or stagnant economic growth, they are much better off now than they were 100 years ago.What is missing in America now is a sense of the future that we will create.And this spirit is very evident in China.This kind of awareness is most important to the prosperity and development of society. It made the integration of China and the United States possible; it prompted Deng Xiaoping to lead China to abandon the old path and choose a new one; it prompted American companies to take the risk of failure to seek opportunities in China It is what has prompted generations of Americans to rise from their mistakes. "Central America" ​​is a concept, a vision of the future, full of ambiguity, uncertainty and complexity like other visions of the world.It is also a vision of whose time has come, which, as Victor Hugo said, has more power than mighty armies.We can try to turn the tide, or we can accept this world and work for the future peace and prosperity of the world, which is our common aspiration.