Chapter 41 3. What is a qualified economist?

From some point in the 20th century, economists became a very interesting profession.Someone once predicted that "the age of chivalry is over, and the age of economists is coming."The influential British "Economist" magazine said earlier: "Future economists will give the obscure inventor of limited liability a place alongside Watt, Stephenson, and other pioneers of the Industrial Revolution. ’ But then the magazine gave the profession of economists a biting sarcasm with a joke.The joke goes something like this: Einstein meets three New Zealanders on a train.To pass the time, they chatted.In order to be able to chat specifically, Einstein wanted to know their IQ first.The first person replied that his IQ was 190, and Einstein was delighted: "We can discuss atomic physics and some of my theoretical ideas." The second person replied that his IQ was 150, and Einstein said: " We can discuss the nuclear non-proliferation treaty that New Zealand established in pursuit of world peace.” A third person replied that he had an IQ of 50, and Einstein hesitated before asking, “What do you expect the interest rate to be next month? "

Why is it that economists, as a profession, have mixed reviews?Economics, much like architecture, is difficult to replicate.There are many design schemes for a building, and it is difficult to judge which design scheme is reasonable before the construction is completed. It is often too late to judge after the construction is completed, because "a done deal".Any economic policy program may be right before a policy program is put into practice.If the wrong economic policies are adopted, the consequences are serious and irreversible.Therefore, someone said that the danger of economists to economic development is "profound", pointing out: "The only thing more dangerous than economists is amateur economists; and the only thing more dangerous than amateur economists is professional economists." economist."

Nonetheless, humanity's economic challenges are real and urgent, such as chronic poverty in Africa, 10-year stagnation in Japan, financial crises in emerging market countries, etc.These increasingly require economists as a kind of expert on economic problems to provide correct solutions.So, an important question is, what is a qualified economist? There will be many answers to this question, and it can be said that the beholder sees benevolence, and the wise sees wisdom.On the basis of discussing the opinions of Keynes, the master of economics in the 20th century, I put forward my humble opinion.Keynes laid out the requirements for a qualified and even good economist when talking about his teacher Alfred Marshall:

The study of economics does not seem to require that kind of exceptional talent.Intellectually speaking, isn't economics an extremely simple subject compared with the advanced content in philosophy and pure science?Yet good, even qualified economists are rare.A simple subject for which few master it!This statement seems contradictory, but it seems to be explained here: that is, a master in economics must be a synthesis of various talents.He has to reach a certain level in all aspects, and then integrate these various talents that are difficult to knead together.He must be, in a way, a mathematician and a historian, a statesman and a philosopher at the same time.He must be able to understand symbols and yet be able to resort to words.He must review the past and look forward to the future while studying the present.There is no human nature or custom which is entirely out of his view.He must be passionate, pursuing goals without preconceived ideas.He must be as remote as an artist and as grounded as a statesman.

It should be said that Keynes' requirements for the integration of economists' multiple talents are somewhat inspiring.Now let's look at what makes an economist a mathematician.For the development of economics in the 21st century, Keynes's words are about to become obsolete.Keynes did not expect that humans would invent computers and bring about a technological revolution. The computing speed of computers would soon surpass that of the human brain.At the same time, economic models have become more and more complex. For example, the international economic models of the two countries have no hope of finding a closed solution, and it is very difficult to prove axioms; only computer simulation can solve the economic model; There is an increasing shift from numerical simulations to computer simulations, otherwise it is difficult to come up with estimates.In this case, mathematicians are "no use for heroes".Future economics is economics software engineering, and future economists must have the level of computer software engineers.

Let's look at the philosopher component.With the professionalization of the economics discipline, economists over the past few decades have come to value technique over philosophy.Without a philosophical component, economists' theories lack thought profundity and foresight.One of the triumphs of philosophical foresight was the nebula theory of the formation of the universe proposed by the German philosopher Kant, many years before the actual discovery of nebulae.For example, Adam Smith's "invisible hand" and Marx's emphasis on productivity are deeply influential today.

Let's look at the historian component.Economists must accumulate rich experience, but life is short. Understanding economic history will accelerate the accumulation of experience and avoid repeating the same mistakes. History will also give economists profound insights.Many people are convinced that the current mainstream economics is correct, and the ideas of predecessors are either regarded as included in the current economic knowledge or wrong, so they ignore the history of economic development and ignore economics as a driving force. Disciplines with scientific attributes will continue to undergo scientific revolutions, such as the "Keynesian Revolution" and the revival of classical economics (neoclassical economics).

Let's look at the politician component.There is a difference between economists and politicians.Economists must base themselves on their knowledge and take into account their reputation. Knowledge depends on hard research, and reputation depends on long-term accumulation.History shows that economists usually cannot be politicians, and politicians are mostly lawyers, because economists cannot find the delicate balance among various complex social relations like lawyers.In fact, the quality of "being as down-to-earth as a politician" appreciated by Keynes can also be found in entrepreneurs, because entrepreneurs must be pragmatic and cannot be separated from the market environment, otherwise the company's products will not be able to keep up with the ever-changing market demand.Moreover, entrepreneurs have the ability to innovate, which is necessary for economists to engage in economic research.

Let’s talk about the artist component again.Economics is both a science and an art, especially at the policy level of economics.Because it is difficult to fully express the economic status of any country or region with an economic model, and a good economic policy is not simply based on a certain model, but a comprehensive experience, knowledge and even inspiration for the future. correct judgment.In the implementation of economic policies, how to grasp the timing and strength of policies is another kind of art. However, Keynes emphasized comprehensiveness while ignoring specialization.Economics has developed to the point that it has many branches, and it is difficult to be an expert in a small field. It is almost impossible to understand the whole of economics, and one must specialize.With in-depth research in one field, it is relatively easy to understand other fields, and may enjoy the economic scale of "one-stop solution".However, economic life is often complex and systematic, and if one focuses too much on one academic field, there is a risk of being limited by a single discipline when facing real economic problems.Someone once made an analogy, if there are 50 mathematicians in a room discussing a mathematical problem, then these 50 mathematicians will often agree with a point of view; if there are 50 economists in a room discussing an economic policy issue , then, these 50 economists tend to have 50 opinions.This is like the six blind men touching an elephant in the ancient Indian fable. Each of them only touched a part of the elephant and claimed to know the elephant. As a result, six people had six different views on "what an elephant looks like". And quarreled all day long.

Even if an economist is both specialized and comprehensive, it is not enough.A qualified economist also needs lifelong learning.Samuelson once said: "A parrot that can talk about supply and demand is also an economist." This view is actually ridiculous.Marshall's first sentence in the book is, "Economic life is changing forever, and economists of each era face the challenges of that era."Economic life is changing, economic laws are also changing, and economic knowledge must change accordingly.For example, the capital account crisis that erupted in the 1990s was different from the current account crisis that preceded it.Therefore, knowledge is not power, learning is power.

To sum up the above, a qualified economist in the future should not only be an expert in a certain field of economics, but also have the comprehensive talents of computer software engineer, philosopher, historian, entrepreneur and artist, and be a person who practices lifelong learning.The prosperity and challenges of the human economy require a large number of such qualified economists.Keynes dreamed of a day when economists were as common and respected a profession as dentists.To be a qualified economist is my dream in life. "The road is long and long, and I will search up and down." I would like to encourage readers.

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