Chapter 31 Chapter 4 Introduction to China's Great Economic Future

When making big decisions, it's more important to ask a good question than to get one right. Guo Guangchang, chairman of Fosun Group, asked two questions when negotiating with investors: one is what do you think of China's economic growth prospects; the other is what do you think of my team. In 1991, when I was about to graduate from university, I asked myself this question: What will be the mainstream in China in the future?Is it the mechanical engineering you studied?no.what is that?It is economic reform and development.So, I decided to switch to economics. Now it seems that if I didn't ask myself such a question at that time, I might have been laid off, because computer-aided design and flexible manufacturing have revolutionized traditional mechanical manufacturing, and the knowledge and skills learned in college at that time were outdated.In today's international and domestic economic circles, a key question is what is China's future growth prospect.

Why do you ask such a question?This issue concerns the vital interests of every Chinese common people.For a Chinese child born in 2009, if he wants to know how much his living standard will improve in 2049, when he enters the "forty years", the key is to know how fast China's future economic growth will be.This issue is also related to the well-being of people in Asia and the world.The "great changes in China's economy" that have had global impact in the past 60 years will continue to have global economic effects. "Chinese consumption" provides a huge market for companies from all over the world, and "Chinese investment" provides a important source of investment.Therefore, for China itself, Asia and the world economy, the prospect of China's long-term economic development is an issue of special significance. It is no wonder that the international media has taken this issue as one of the topics of concern.

Most of the existing articles on China's economic prospects only predict the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, that is, 2029.However, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China is the time node for China's third-step economic development strategic goal.Therefore, we should look forward to the economic development trend in the next 40 years, and there are five trends that must be given due attention: 1. Productivity revolution; 2. Changes in population structure; 3. Changes in human capital; 4. Sustainability of finance and debt 5. Changes in the national savings rate.Among these five megatrends, the productivity revolution is the most fundamental and most significant challenge.Productivity revolutions are black swan events that often occur outside existing industries, causing difficulties in economic restructuring, so the economic outlook is always uncertain.I try to make more or less predictions about the future of China's economy by studying the five major trends at the core of the productivity revolution.In a nutshell, China's economic growth can be divided into two stages: the brand era (2009-2029) and the innovation era (2030-2049).

In the brand era, the average annual growth rate of China's GDP was about 7%, which was about 2 percentage points lower than that in the price era (1979-2008). In 2009, China's per capita GDP was US$3,000. Considering the appreciation of the RMB, it is estimated that by 2020, China's per capita GDP will be US$7,000. In 2029, China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy and become one of the world's economic leaders. , but per capita GDP is only equivalent to 1/3 of the US per capita level in 2029.In the relatively fast economic environment of the brand era, it is very difficult to keep a clear mind, and it is very easy to fall into the vicious circle of "being proud before getting rich" or the trap of irrational optimism.Mencius said: "Be born in sorrow, and die in peace."

In the era of innovation, I predict that the real economic growth rate will be 3% during this period, entering a period of "medium-speed growth". The investment opportunities of "Made in China" and urbanization are gradually fading, "innovative country" is basically established, "China's new economy" has gradually become the leading industry, China's investment and consumption have undergone structural adjustments, China's consumption has increased significantly, and the driving force of domestic demand has strengthened. And create huge export opportunities for the world economy.From the "high-speed growth" stage to the "medium-speed growth" stage, independent innovation has become the main driving force of economic development.

In order to complete the phoenix nirvana of China's economy in 2049, it is necessary to rekindle the Chinese dream of the millennium, dare to meet the challenges of productivity revolutions such as information technology and biotechnology, create "China's new economy", and at the same time continue the international competitiveness of "Made in China", Alleviate structural employment pressure.The Chinese economy must run as fast as the hare in the tortoise and the hare, but at the same time be calm and patient like the tortoise. When discussing the future of China's economy, the international economic pattern that China faces is that "before there was the US high-tech 'pacesetter', and then there was the Indian manufacturing 'chaser'".India has risen again. After "India Services" took the lead in the world, "Made in India" has been catching up, forming an international development scene of "Dragon and Elephant Dance" with China.In 2049, the international economic landscape will be more diverse than it is today.At the same time, it is necessary to deeply study the experience and lessons of the Japanese economy.The creation of international brands in the manufacturing industry of the Japanese economy is a model for the Chinese economy to learn from, but the lesson of Japan's entry into the "high-level dynamic equilibrium trap" and macro-control in the manufacturing industry is a teacher for the future of the Chinese economy.

The "China model" is the institutional guarantee for future economic growth in China.While seeing the long-term growth prospects of China's economy, we must guard against excessive optimism, thinking that high-speed growth can be easily achieved without further economic reform, that innovation culture can be achieved overnight, and that entrepreneurship is simply imitating business models.The Chinese dream should inspire the "Chinese model" to carry out "second entrepreneurship".China's great future is a turning point in its historical destiny from a century of economic decline to a century of economic revival.Is rebirth from the ashes, whether it is extremely peaceful!