Chapter 27 Section 2 China Model

In 1990, led by the US Institute of International Economics, a seminar was held in Washington to discuss economic adjustment and reform in Latin America since the mid-to-late 1980s. Participants came from Latin American countries, the United States, the World Bank and other countries and international institutions.The meeting put forward 10 policy propositions to guide Latin American economic reforms, known as the "Washington Consensus" (the main contents are trade liberalization, market pricing, macroeconomic stability and privatization, etc.).The Washington Consensus puts forward policy recommendations mainly from the perspective of demand, and its theoretical basis is neoclassical economics.

Faced with the still serious problem of poverty, the World Bank has now abandoned the Washington Consensus and instead emphasized the overall improvement of social capacity and the quality of growth.In the face of frequent outbreaks of financial crises in many countries, the International Monetary Fund has paid more and more attention to economic structural reforms.Former World Bank Chief Economist and Nobel Laureate Stiglitz said, “Over the past few years, many developing countries, especially those in Latin America, have noticed that in the 20th century, the Washington Consensus had an impact on The 20-odd years of their greatest economic growth coincided with their worst performance in terms of economic growth. Not only has the disillusionment with globalization increased, but so has the disenchantment with the Washington Consensus.”

Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate in economics, said, "Those who can interpret China's economic reform should win the Nobel Prize."In response to the economic miracle created by China’s reform and opening up, Joshua Cooper, a senior editor of Time Magazine and a senior consultant of Goldman Sachs, published a paper, arguing that China has found a suitable economy for its own country through hard work, active innovation and bold practice. national development model.He called this model the "Beijing Consensus."In his view, China's experience based on the Beijing Consensus has universal value, and many of them can be used as a reference for other developing countries. It can be regarded as a model for backward countries to seek economic growth and improve people's lives.But Cooper did not further point out the profound connotation of the Beijing Consensus.

The development experience of China's economy is in a state of "everyone is talking about it, but no one can tell".I worked in the central ministries and commissions for a short time, experienced the reform of state-owned enterprises, and admired the reform of the central government; I worked in the local government for a while, and was surprised by the local innovation; The fledgling entrepreneurs and ordinary people feel that the tide of individual entrepreneurship is sweeping across the land of China.Based on my extensive observations and experiences at home and abroad, I believe that China's success lies in its successful model. I call this model the "Chinese model", which can be summed up in 12 words, that is——Central reform, local innovation , Individual entrepreneurship. The "China model" is an effective way to solve the shortage of effective supply, which provides a diversity of economic systems and is conducive to enterprise innovation.

When the supply curve shifts substantially to the right, if the central government is unwilling to reform the economic system and promote "institutional change", it will lead to insufficient institutional supply.The central governments of all countries in the world may not have such a strong and persistent sense of reform as the Chinese government. This is because the Chinese government’s judgment on economic problems is mainly not insufficient effective demand, but insufficient effective supply. The contradiction between advanced material and cultural needs and backward social productive forces”, and also attaches great importance to maintaining macroeconomic stability.Based on such a judgment on fundamental economic issues, the Chinese government actively provides "institutional supply"; local governments around the world rarely have the enthusiasm and innovative spirit of local governments at all levels in China, and face extremely complex and unique local economies. In terms of social environment, it is often possible to find a solution that is consistent with the central government's major policies and is suitable for economic globalization and local actual conditions, and to create effective supply by integrating various elements.The Chinese people began to concentrate on entrepreneurship, and their business talents were brought into play. Hundreds of millions of entrepreneurs carried forward the entrepreneurial spirit, constantly imitated and innovated, realized conventional innovation and revolutionary innovation, braved "creative destruction", and launched the "people's revolution" in the commercial field. war", cultivated commercial civilization, and promoted the transition of the economic system.

Around the 1970s, economic history broke into the research field of economic growth, and institutional factors were finally incorporated into the factors explaining economic growth.The famous American economist Douglas North became one of the representatives of the new institutional economics, and won the 1993 Nobel Prize in Economics for this.North found that during the period from 1600 to 1850, there was no technological progress in the world's ocean transportation, but the efficiency during this period was greatly improved. During this period, the technology did not change. Due to changes in the shipping system and organizational methods, transportation costs decreased.In the early stage of China's reform and opening up, the household contract responsibility system was implemented, which greatly liberated rural productivity. The implementation of the household contract responsibility system greatly promoted the recovery and development of China's agriculture. Compared with 1978, the total rural output value in 1985 increased nearly three times.Lin Yifu's article "China's Rural Reform and Agricultural Growth" published in "American Economic Review" in 1992 was rated by the Institute of Scientific Information of the United States as one of the most cited papers published in international economics journals from 1980 to 1998 , was awarded the Classic Citation Award.The core finding of the paper is that institutional changes in the household contract responsibility system can explain about 55% of the increase in agricultural production, while growth in fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and rural labor are secondary factors.

New institutional economics believes that once factors such as production technology, relative prices of resources, and transaction costs change, people will have a demand for new institutional services, and the original institutional equilibrium will be broken, resulting in institutional imbalance; When the system is out of balance, profit opportunities for new institutional arrangements will appear.If the transaction cost of institutional change is not too high, then institutional change and even the change of the entire economic structure may occur, and the provider of the system can promote the reform of a new system through collective choice.However, collective choice of institutional change sometimes encounters collective action problems, such as "free riding", and the means to overcome this problem is ideology.The supplier of the system can also be the government or the economic subject.

According to North's theory, there are two "groups" that promote institutional change, namely the "first action group" and "second action group", both of which are decision-making subjects.The general process of institutional change can be divided into the following five steps: first, forming the first action group to promote institutional change; second, proposing a plan for institutional change; third, evaluating the plan; fourth, forming a promotional system The second action group of change; fifth, the two groups work together to achieve institutional change.The defect of this model is that it ignores the uncertainty of institutional change.The second and third steps of the model are ideal. There will be many unexpected changes in the process of institutional change. Without institutional change experiments, it is difficult to evaluate benefits and costs. In the case of unclear costs and benefits, the second action Joining the group is difficult.The reform of the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries was to a large extent a top-down design reform. After the implementation of the "shock therapy" reform, it was discovered that the main body of the market economy, that is, the enterprise, had not yet been cultivated.At the same time, this model assumes that the first action group initiates reforms, and the second action group follows up.This denies the possibility of institutional change initiated by the second action group, resulting in insufficient diversity of institutional change.

In the reform of China's economic system, there are three "action groups", namely the central government, local governments and individuals, which cover almost all the subjects of economic supply, and are often a kind of Pareto improvement.The central government, local governments and individuals all benefit from economic growth and are a community of interests.The central government is determined to reform and pursue the maximization of the long-term welfare of all the people; local governments at all levels are fueling the flames and actively innovating to create an economic environment that adapts to economic globalization and seek regional economic prosperity and scientific development; hundreds of millions of people have the courage to start businesses and create personal wealth. It also created a lot of job opportunities.Therefore, the "China model" can create more effective supply.According to Say's law "supply creates demand", effective supply can create effective demand, thereby providing investment opportunities and bringing about economic growth.

The ultimate source of economic growth is to use institutional innovation to adapt to the productivity revolution, and these are all accomplished under a given system. The "China Model" is neither completely top-down nor completely bottom-up.It includes changes guided and regulated by central policy changes, innovations by local governments and economic organizations, and spontaneous and creative economic activities by the masses, resulting in more institutional innovations and better economic performance.Under the "China Model", the number and types of institutional attempts allowed are much greater than those allowed by the "Washington Consensus", so the possibility of institutional innovation is much greater.The central government promotes reform, and the core of economic reform is a large-scale transformation of the economic system.Economic reform is a process of experimenting with different institutions.If only central government reforms were in place in China, the scope for experimentation with different approaches to addressing effective supply deficits would be greatly limited.

China uses decentralized regional economy to reduce overall risks, and the quantity and types of local institutional innovations allowed are far greater than those allowed by other economic systems. Therefore, the possibility of institutional innovation is much higher, and the final economic performance is also higher. better.For example, it is difficult for the British economy to have the diversity of China, because London accounts for more than 60% of the total economy of the United Kingdom, and the economies of other places are insignificant. Therefore, London's innovation is British innovation, and London's risks are British risks.Tokyo plays a leading role in the Japanese economy, and the Kansai region centered on Osaka has no obvious characteristics, so Japan's economic diversity is not enough.When I first came to the United States in 1996, I was amazed at the diversity of the states; 10 years later, when I was on a business trip in China, I found that the speed and diversity of economic and social changes in China were far better than those in the United States.No wonder Don Tapscott and Anthony Williams said in Wikinomics that "innovative cities are springing up everywhere in China". The "Chinese model" makes "everything is possible".China has completed at least three tasks that are considered "impossible" by the international community: the reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of state-owned banks, and the reform of split shareholding.The reform of state-owned enterprises is difficult and complicated. Since 1995, the central reform has focused on tackling the difficulties of state-owned enterprises. In 1998, the campaign of "state-owned enterprises basically getting out of the predicament" was launched.What is emerging in China's domestic market today is a "new type of state-owned enterprise". At the end of the 1990s, the international public opinion that the Chinese economy was about to collapse attracted attention. The most well-founded reason was that the bad debts of the Chinese banking system accounted for more than 60% of the total assets, and they were technically bankrupt. If they wanted to reach the 8% of the Basel Accord Capital self-sufficiency is simply a fantasy.But with the successful overseas listings of China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, the banking system has gained new life.The Agricultural Bank of China will conduct the largest IPO in the world's financial history. The central government is not only aware of its authoritative position and its dominant position in the transformation of the economic system, but also attaches importance to the enthusiasm of local governments and the dominance of institutional innovation, and respects the creativity of individuals. In 1956, Mao Zedong believed in his speech "On the Ten Major Relationships" that the malady of the Soviet planned economy did not lie in the allocation of resources by administrative orders, but in "excessive concentration of power in the center", excessive control, and excessive control , inhibited the enthusiasm of local governments at all levels, production units and workers.Mao Zedong pointed out, "The relationship between the central government and local governments is also a contradiction. To resolve this contradiction, we should pay attention to expanding the power of local governments under the premise of consolidating the unified leadership of the central government. More things. This is more beneficial for us to build a strong socialist country. Our country is so big, with such a large population, and the situation is so complicated. It is much better to have two initiatives from the central and local governments than only one. We cannot be like Like the Soviet Union, everything was centralized in the center, and the localities were tightly stuck, with no mobility at all.”Based on this, the Chinese government launched a campaign in 1958 to "decentralize power and transfer profits" to local governments. Although it later fell into a cycle of "decentralization, devolution and collection", it was a beneficial attempt after all. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping said in his speech "Emancipate the Mind, Seek Truth from Facts, and Look Ahead in Unity", "Before a national unified plan is formulated, we can start from a local area, from a region or an industry, and gradually Push it away. All departments of the central government must allow and encourage them to carry out this kind of experiment. Various contradictions will arise during the experiment, and we must discover and overcome these contradictions in time. Only in this way can we make faster progress.” In 1984, the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "for major reform measures, according to different situations, some plans should be formulated first and then carried out in related aspects of the economic system; Not only pay attention to the gradual progress of the reform, but also make breakthroughs in important links without losing the opportunity to drive the overall reform." By the 1990s, local innovation and individual entrepreneurship had grown in importance. In 1993, the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee deliberated and passed the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Issues Concerning the Establishment of a Socialist Market Economic System", summarizing the guiding ideology and principles for deepening the reform of the economic system as "adhering to the reform direction of the socialist market economy, focusing on the system Construction and institutional innovation. Persist in respecting the pioneering spirit of the masses, and give full play to the enthusiasm of the central and local governments." In 2007, General Secretary Hu Jintao spoke highly of the pioneering spirit of the masses in his report to the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of my country. It has achieved a great historical turning point from a highly centralized planned economic system to a vibrant socialist market economic system, from closed and semi-closed to all-round openness.” Economic growth was faster for places that innovated competitive economic institutions.Other lagging regions achieved rapid economic catch-up by imitating more competitive institutions.Regions face stiff competition from other regions and are rapidly adopting best practices in economic development.As a result, the spread of the system was astonishingly fast. The rural land contract responsibility system spread rapidly from Xiaogang Village, Anhui, to the whole country in just two years.Except for a few major newspapers such as the New York Times, most newspapers in the United States do not care much about international news, unless it is a particularly important international event.At that time, Justin Yifu Lin, who was studying for a doctorate at the University of Chicago in the United States, did not hear the news from China, but just read the news of the success of China’s rural reform from American newspapers, and keenly chose it as the topic of his doctoral thesis.This shows that the success of China's rural reform in a short period of time has attracted worldwide attention. China's institutional innovation has not been smooth sailing. Some innovations were successful at the beginning, but later proved to be transitional innovations.Township enterprises are the most typical example.One of the most striking changes in the early stage of China's reform was that during the 20 years from 1978 to 1998, 100 million agricultural laborers were transferred to the township and village enterprises sector, becoming a major part of industry.This is by far the largest rural industrialization process in human history.Therefore, despite many factors, rural industrialization became the driving force of China's economic growth in the past 20 years.Township enterprises are an institutional innovation, breaking through the incentive mechanism of state-owned enterprises and creating the "Southern Jiangsu Model".However, township collective enterprises, as a micro-institutional innovation in the transition stage, have hidden dangers of unclear property rights.With the deepening of the transformation of the economic system, when the number of private enterprises with clear property rights continues to increase, the competitive advantage of township enterprises is getting smaller and smaller, and they cannot compete with private enterprises with a clearer governance structure.As a result, township enterprises encountered unprecedented difficulties at the end of the 20th century, and the number of employed people in township enterprises continued to decline after 1997-1998.The central government put forward the enterprise reform strategy of "grasp the large and let go of the small", and the local government began to innovate the property rights reform of small and medium-sized enterprises, and a considerable number of township enterprises transformed into private enterprises in the true sense.Township enterprises have made historical contributions to the cultivation of the main body of the market economy and entrepreneurial spirit in the Chinese economy. Over the past 30 years, the Chinese government has consistently carried out economic system reforms, liberated and developed social productive forces, demonstrated its strong will and the courage to take risks, and achieved great success. The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held in December 1978 resolutely shifted the focus of the party's work to economic construction and initiated the process of transitioning from the traditional planned economic system to the market economic system.China's economic system reform can generally be divided into the following four stages: The first stage, from 1979 to 1984, belongs to the stage of "crossing the river by feeling the stones" of the market-oriented reform, adopting the method of trial and error and groping forward.At that time, the goal of economic system reform was not clear, there was no perceptual understanding of the market economy, little understanding of the operation of the price system, and there was great uncertainty in the reform.The second stage, from 1984 to 1992, is a necessary transitional stage.Between the huge gap between the planned economy and the market economy, China has cleverly built a "bridge", which is the socialist commodity economy.Although the price "dual-track system" brought a lot of rent-seeking opportunities and a lot of corruption, and the price "passing through the gate" in 1987 was defeated by the high inflation expectations induced by the "breaking through the gate" itself, the overall transition was successful. "A bridge flies from north to south, and the natural moat becomes a thoroughfare."The third stage, from 1993 to 2003, is the initial stage of establishing a market economy. The goal of the "socialist market economy" has been clarified. This stage is no longer a gradual reform, nor is it completely a radical reform. Gentle and drizzly.The fourth stage, from 2003 to the present, is the stage of perfecting the market economy.In view of the new situation of joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the "dual economy" problems encountered in the reform, important repairs have been made.Related to these four stages are the three well-known "Third Plenums", namely the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Party in 1984, the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee of the Party in 1993, and the Third Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of the Party in 2003. plenary session.If there are any important and classic economic policy documents in China, they are the three "decisions" of the Third Plenary Session. The first level is the commodity economy, the second level is the preliminary market economy, and the third level is the relatively complete market economy.If you take into account the economic and financial environment at that time and reread these three documents now, I think most readers will agree with me. The three documents are classic documents of China's economic reform, condensing a magnificent history of China's economic reform.I have listed the main points of these three documents, not for simple explanation, but for readers to appreciate their time-tested classics and originality. During the period from 1979 to 1984, the Chinese central government, local governments and hundreds of millions of individuals learned by doing and gradually accumulated experience in the market economy.On the basis of such practice, the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held in October 1984 passed the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Economic System Reform". Planned economy.Since the late 1920s, the international economic circles have generally believed that the planned economy is the only economic system choice for socialism.The reforms of the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries did not fundamentally break away from this mindset.Therefore, for the international economic circles, the shock brought by China's decision can be described as "rock-breaking", no less than the huge shock to the world when Nixon's visit to China in 1972. The "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Economic System Reform" adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee is a theoretical innovation in economics. It does not regard the lack of effective demand as the main contradiction, but emphasizes the liberation and development of productive forces through economic system reform. The real core problem of economics is the problem of insufficient effective supply.From criticizing the "socialist commodity economy theory" to affirming that the socialist economy is a "planned commodity economy", a new realm of Marxist economics has been created. The "Decision" made a classic exposition, "The basic contradiction in a socialist society is still the contradiction between the relations of production and the productive forces, the superstructure and the economic base. Our reform of the economic system is to reform the production A series of interrelated links and aspects in relations and superstructures that do not adapt to the development of productive forces... The fundamental task of socialism is to develop social productive forces, to make social wealth more and more emerge, and to continuously meet the growing demands of the people. Material and cultural needs... All comrades in the party should firmly grasp this basic point of view of Marxism in the process of carrying out reforms, and regard whether it is conducive to the development of social productive forces as the most important criterion for testing the success or failure of all reforms."In theory, the "Decision" not only accurately grasped the most essential connotation of Marxist economics, but also made a major contribution to economics, that is, productivity is the most fundamental, and the economic system must adapt to the productivity revolution. The "Decision" chose the commodity economy as the breakthrough point of the reform rather than other elements, which is pragmatic. The "Decision" clearly stated that "to reform the planning system, we must first break through the traditional concept of opposing the planned economy with the commodity economy, and clearly understand that the socialist planned economy must consciously base and apply the law of value, which is a planned commodity based on public ownership. Economy. The full development of the commodity economy is an insurmountable stage of social and economic development and a necessary condition for the realization of my country's economic modernization. Only by fully developing the commodity economy can the economy be truly invigorated and all enterprises be encouraged to improve efficiency, operate flexibly and sensitively Adapt to complex and ever-changing social needs, which cannot be achieved by relying solely on administrative means and mandatory plans. At the same time, it should also be noted that even in the socialist commodity economy, its extensive development will produce a certain blindness , there must be planning guidance, regulation and administrative management, which can be achieved under socialist conditions. Therefore, the implementation of a planned economy and the application of the law of value and the development of a commodity economy are not mutually exclusive, but unified. They are wrong in opposition." The "Decision" clarified the basic goals and requirements of the reform, and made the necessary transition for breaking the planned economy in an all-round way. The "Decision" has a total of 10 parts, of which 11 are on the economic aspect: 1. The need for a comprehensive reform of the economic system is more urgent, and the conditions have already been met; 2. The socialist economy should be a planned commodity economy.It is neither a rigid planned economy nor a market economy completely regulated by the market; 3. The most fundamental task of China is to develop social productivity, and it must be determined with the utmost determination and perseverance to concentrate on economic construction; the stated reform goals It is: "fundamentally change the economic system that restricts the development of productive forces" and "establish a socialist economic system with Chinese characteristics, full of vigor and vitality." This clearly indicates that the traditional socialist economic system has constrained the development of productive forces. Therefore, the reform cannot just repair it, but needs to carry out fundamental changes to it; 4. The previous system of planned economy has many disadvantages , and cannot adapt to the requirements of developing productivity: 5. The reform of the economic system must focus on urban enterprises, and its gist is to resolve the relationship between the state, enterprises and individuals; Separation of rights", "Enhancing the vitality of enterprises, especially the large and medium-sized enterprises owned by the whole people is the central link of the reform of the entire economic system focusing on cities"; 7. Simultaneously implement the planning system, price system, state agencies and Supporting reform of the labor wage system; 8. In principle, the government no longer directly manages and manages enterprises, and the few economic departments that have direct management and management responsibilities must also streamline administration and delegate power; 9. Reform the over-centralized price management system and reduce the national unified pricing 10. Distribution according to work, encouraging some areas and some people to get rich first, so that the whole society will become rich one after another; 11. Opening up to the outside world is a basic national policy, using both domestic and foreign resources to develop domestic and foreign resources two markets. "The good wind sends me to Qingyun by virtue of its strength." The "socialist planned commodity economy" has overcome the traditional shackles of the planned economy to a large extent, and has encouraged hundreds of millions of people to learn from practical work with a destructive momentum. A lot of social wealth has emerged wherever it goes. The result is From 1984 to 1992, China's economy grew rapidly.In response to this "Decision", Deng Xiaoping's evaluation was to praise his innovation in Marxist economic theory.Deng Xiaoping said: "My impression is that I have written a first draft of political economy, which is a political economy that combines the basic principles of Marxism with the practice of socialism in China." The "Decision" inherited the fundamental principles of Marxist economics and established the The foundation of neo-Marxist economics provides a theoretical basis for the long-term reform of China's economic system, and its significance is extremely far-reaching. In 1992, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China established the establishment of a socialist market economic system as the goal of China's reform, and clearly stated that "the goal of my country's economic system reform is to establish a socialist market economic system."The market economy is a way of allocating social and economic resources, an economic operation mechanism, and an important civilizational achievement created by human beings.Developing a market economy under conditions of socialism and combining socialism with a market economy is a great pioneering work.Establishing a socialist market economic system is an unprecedented pioneering undertaking, and many extremely complicated problems need to be solved.However, at that time our understanding of the socialist market economy was still at the commodity level, and our understanding of the market economy was only at the conceptual stage.I remember that the phrase that was used the most at that time was "taking the market as the main way of allocating resources" to define a market economy.As for what is a "market", people often only know what it is, but not why. Production relations adapt to the development of productive forces, emphasizing adaptive efficiency.Between the market economy and the planned economy, the market economy is higher than the planned economy in both allocation efficiency and adaptability efficiency.Therefore, in 1992, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China chose the socialist market economy model, which was the inevitable result of neo-Marxist economics and the perfect combination of Marxist economics and Chinese practice. After the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China determined the goal of establishing a socialist market economic system, China carried out an overall design of the economic system.China urgently needs to move from a flat system composed of commodity markets to a three-dimensional system composed of labor markets, capital markets and commodity markets.The "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly put forward a new reform strategy of "overall advancement and key breakthroughs", formulated specific plans for promoting reform in all aspects of the economic system, and required the initial establishment of a market economic system by the end of the 20th century .If the "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China chose the relatively easy commodity field to promote at that time, then the "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was just the opposite. It not only comprehensively outlined the blueprint and basic framework for reform , and comprehensive design, lightning-fast overall advancement. In 2008, Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, said in the article "Retrospect and Review of "Reform Strategy and Its Choices", "In the history of China's reform in the past 15 years, there has never been such a concentrated major reform measure in one year. Simultaneous launch". Although the transformation to a market economy is only partially completed, especially the capital market and labor market are not developed enough, but this reform has achieved a "MiG-25 effect" in which the whole is greater than the part. In November 1993, the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Issues Concerning the Establishment of a Socialist Market Economic System."Since 1984, with 10 years of experience gained in partial reforms, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has proposed the goal of establishing a socialist market economy, which requires an overall design and planning of reforms. The "Decision" has fifty articles, and these fifty articles are very thirst-quenching and comprehensive.The "Decision" can be classified into 10 aspects: 1. Theoretical guidance for reform; 2. Enterprise micro-system; 3. Market system; 4. Macro-policy; economy); 7. foreign trade and investment; 8. science and technology and education system; 9. legal system; 10. main body to promote reform.These 10 aspects comprehensively promote the reform of the economic system from the supply side and pay attention to demand management, which is in stark contrast to the Washington Consensus that emphasizes the demand side.It is particularly worth mentioning that the "Decision" included science and technology and the education system in the scope of economic system reform, leaving a foreshadowing for the construction of an innovative country.These specific requirements constituted the basic framework of the socialist market economic system and became the program of action for the reform of China's economic system in the 1990s. After the promulgation of the "Decision", the reform of the financial system, the reform of the investment system, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, the reform of the foreign trade system, the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the establishment of the social security system have been comprehensively promoted.For example, the central government has made bold reforms to the RMB exchange rate.The RMB was basically stable for a long period of time after the founding of the People's Republic of China, at about 2 RMB for 1 US dollar. From 1982 to 1994, the RMB continued to depreciate, gradually depreciating to 1 US dollar to 8 RMB. Since January 1, 1994, the dual exchange rates have been merged and a managed floating exchange rate system has been implemented. During the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries competed to depreciate. The international financial market was generally worried that the RMB would depreciate sharply. The RMB exchange rate has remained stable for nearly 8 years. In 2005, the reform of the RMB exchange rate increased the floating range of the RMB. At 19:00 on July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China suddenly issued an announcement that the RMB would appreciate by 2% against the US dollar, that is, 1 US dollar to 8.11 yuan.At the same time, China initially established a foreign exchange market, introduced market supply and demand signals, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, and managed a floating exchange rate system. In the world financial crisis that began in 2008, China once again bravely maintained the basic stability of the RMB against the US dollar, providing opportunities for export growth to trading partners whose currencies have depreciated sharply. Since 1980, China's financial system has been "separate cooking" between the central government and local governments. According to the requirements of the "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee in 1993, the reform of the "tax sharing system" has been promoted in a lightning-like manner since 1994. , succeeded within half a year, and solved the unstable fiscal and tax relations between the central and local governments that had plagued China's economic development since the Han Dynasty.Xiang Huaicheng, the Vice Minister of Finance at that time, went to Tsinghua University to give lectures to students. I had the honor to listen and was "shocked" by bold fiscal and taxation reforms.At that time, Xiang Huaicheng said proudly that the personal income tax was introduced in the tax reform. Although the expected revenue from this tax was small, it was a start.However, the difficulty of implementing the "Decision" passed by the Third Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee is different. The most difficult thing is to build a capital market.The "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee recognized the importance of the capital market, pointing out that "to develop and improve a financial market dominated by bank financing. The capital market should actively and steadily develop bond and stock financing. Establish bond issuers and bond Credit rating system to promote the healthy development of the bond market. Standardize the issuance and listing of stocks, and gradually expand the scale. The money market should develop standardized inter-bank lending and bill discounting, and the central bank should conduct treasury bond trading. Resolutely stop and correct illegal fund-raising, lending and other financing activities”. The "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee put forward the goal of reforming the labor market for the first time, "Reform the labor system and gradually form a labor market. my country's abundant labor force is the advantage of economic development, but at the same time there is also the pressure of employment. We must develop and utilize it reasonably. Allocation of human resources is the starting point for the development of the labor market. Widen employment opportunities and absorb more urban labor for employment. Encourage and guide the gradual transfer of rural surplus labor to non-agricultural industries and orderly flow between regions. Develop various forms of employment, use Economic means adjust the employment structure and form an employment mechanism in which employers and laborers have two-way choices and reasonable flow.A flexible and standardized labor market is the competitive advantage of the Chinese economy and the institutional guarantee for transforming a country with a large population into a country with a large human resource.Only when people make the best use of their talents can they stimulate individual investment in human capital. 从1994年到十六届三中全会召开的2004年，十四届三中全会《决定》从整体上推动了经济体制改革，综合配套改革取得了巨大成功，取得了“米格-25效应”，刺激了经济高速增长，在增长中彻底摆脱了计划体制，建立了竞争激烈的产品市场，其他要素市场开始发展。仅仅10年，亿万中国人民在政府的引导下“从创业中学习”，以创造性的实践，取得了整体上转轨的成功。 如果把我国的市场经济体制建设比作一只木桶，1993年十四届三中全会勾画的社会主义市场经济体制框架，就如同一只完整的木桶，用这只能装水的木桶取代了计划经济的木桶。然而，市场经济“木桶”最多能装多少水，那时还考虑不到。 木桶原理又称短板理论，其核心内容为：一只木桶盛水的多少，并不取决于桶壁上最高的那块木板，而恰恰取决于桶壁上最短的那块。对中国经济来说，决定这个体制整体强弱的不是那个最强、表现最好的部分，如商品市场的激烈竞争和灵活的劳动力市场，而恰恰是那个能力最弱的部分，如中国的金融体系，因为最短的木板在对最长的木板起着限制和制约作用，决定了这个体制的适应性，影响整个经济体制的综合实力。也就是说，要想方设法让短板达到长板的高度或者让所有的木板维持足够高的相等高度，才能完全发挥体制整体作用。 从1994年到2003年的10年里，社会主义市场经济体制初步建立。自2001年11月加入世界贸易组织（WTO）以来，中国全面履行多边规则和对外承诺，继续扩大开放市场，贸易自由化、便利化水平大大提高。同时，面对经济全球化和加入世贸组织的新形势，中国需要与世界接轨。以完善社会主义市场经济体制为主题的十六届三中全会，与10年前的十四届三中全会遥相呼应，其历史意义就是“木桶原理”的“补短板”。2003年10月14日中共十六届三中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》。 这次通过的《决定》分12个部分：一、我国经济体制改革面临的形势和任务；二、进一步巩固和发展公有制经济，鼓励、支持和引导非公有制经济发展；三、完善国有资产管理体制，深化国有企业改革；四、深化农村改革，完善农村经济体制；五、完善市场体系，规范市场秩序；六、继续改善宏观调控，加快转变政府职能；七、完善财税体制，深化金融改革；八、深化涉外经济体制改革，全面提高对外开放水平；九、推进就业和分配体制改革，完善社会保障体系；十、深化科技教育文化卫生体制改革，提高国家创新能力和国民整体素质；十一、深化行政管理体制改革，完善经济法律制度；十二、加强和改善党的领导，为完善社会主义市场经济体制而奋斗。十六届三中全会《决定》总结了十四大和十四届三中全会以来的经验，明确提出了完善社会主义市场经济体制的目标和任务，提出了统筹城乡发展、区域发展、经济和社会发展、人与自然和谐发展、国内发展和对外开放等5方面的要求；规定了逐步改变城乡二元结构，加强市场体系建设，健全就业、收入分配和社会保障制度，建立经济社会可持续发展机制等，特别是在公有制的实现形式方面提出了努力使股份制成为公有制的主要实现形式，大力发展公有资本控股或参股的股份制经济，大力发展和积极引导非公有制经济等一系列新观点。 十六届三中全会《决定》把国有资产从经营者的层次上升为战略投资者的层次，提出了混合所有的股份制是公有制的主要实现形式，“要适应经济市场化不断发展的趋势，进一步增强公有制经济的活力，大力发展国有资本、集体资本和非公有资本等参股的混合所有制经济，实现投资主体多元化，使股份制成为公有制的主要实现形式”。这个表述是继十五大提出公有制的实现形式多样化之后，经过实践探索所取得的重大进步，是对公有制实现形式的认识在不断深化，国有资产从管理者向投资者身份转化，是国有企业改革获得的重大突破。 中国金融体系是以银行体系为主还是以资本市场为主存在着争论。由于生产力革命是不确定的，银行体系不可能也不应该承受过高的系统风险，所以中国必须走资本市场为主的路径。可喜的是，十六届三中全会《决定》在资本市场方面认识更深刻了，不再提建立以银行为主的金融体制，而是表明要“大力发展资本和其他要素市场。积极推进资本市场的改革开放和稳定发展，扩大直接融资。建立多层次资本市场体系，完善资本市场结构，丰富资本市场产品。规范和发展主板市场，推进风险投资和创业板市场建设。积极拓展债券市场，完善和规范发行程序，扩大公司债券发行规模”。这个意见引领中国逐步从银行主导型的金融系统向资本市场主导型的金融体系过渡。 2004年，中国的股权分置改革是按照十六届三中全会《决定》实现制度创新的一个成功例子。自2001年6月国有股减持政策出台，引发了“股市全流通”，也就是后来通称为解决股权分置问题的大讨论，也使“股权分置”改革成为“不可能完成”的任务。2001年6月12日，国务院正式发布《减持国有股筹集社会保障资金管理暂行办法》，2001年6月14日～10月22日，上证指数跌幅达30%。2001年10月22日，《减持国有股筹集社会保障资金管理暂行办法》被叫停。如图3-11所描述的，从2001年到2006年是中国股市长达5年的漫漫长夜。 2004年1月31日，中国政府发布《关于推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的若干意见》，即“国九条”，明确了资本市场发展的目标。按照这一目标，中国证监会在推进股权分置改革、提高上市公司质量、实施证券公司综合治理、大力发展机构投资者、加快产品和制度创新以及健全资本市场法制等方面做了大量工作。这些改革措施取得了明显成效。2005年4月，证监会发布《关于上市公司股权分置改革试点有关问题的通知》，拉开了中国资本市场一场深刻革命的序幕。股权的关键是怎样确定流通股和非流通股的对价，非流通股的股东必须给流通股股东一定的补偿，补偿方案须经参加表决的股东所持表决权的2/3以上和参加表决的流通股股东所持表决权的2/3以上同时通过。给多少补偿，即“对价”的多少，这涉及一个世界性难题，就是债券领域的集体谈判。当债务危机爆发后，很难进行债务重组，因为只要有少数债权人不愿意在多数债权人与债务人达成的价格进行重组，就达不成协议。20世纪80年代初发生的拉丁美洲债务危机，前后持续长达10年之久，就是这个原因。 由于上市公司越多，对地方经济发展越有利，所以中国地方政府发挥了关键性作用，非常积极推进本地区的股改工作，很大程度上充当了债务重组的主持人和调节人，同时，非流通股股东和股民也很配合，积极寻找走出僵局的途径。在“中国模式”的推动下，地方试点破冰。2005年5月9日推出了首批股改试点公司。2005年6月，42家公司进行第二批股权分置改革试点。两批试点很快获得成功，2005年9月，中国证监会出台了相关的操作规范和指南。而恰在此时，中国股市处于历史最低谷，成就了“黎明前最后的黑暗”。 2005年6月6日大盘跌穿千点，曾被广泛抨击的“千点论”预言变成现实。2005年12月，第12批股权分置改革公司亮相。2006年年初，在看到试点成功的基础上，国务院将“基本完成上市公司股权分置改革”纳入2006年工作要点，全力推动。到2006年9月，随着9月14日中国石化股改的启动，已有1151家上市公司进入或者完成了股改程序，公司股改市值已经占到股市总市值的90%以上。2007年中国股市的股权分置改革圆满完成，中国股市步入“股权分置改革”后时代，国内外惊呼“中国资本市场的春天到来了”。如图3-11所示，2006年6月，中国股市在5年多的持续下跌之后，突如其来地爆发，并在2007年10月扶摇直上到6000点。 中国A股2007年市盈率为30倍以上。从国际上看，美国标准普尔500在过去近50年中的平均市盈率为15倍，最高的年份也只达40倍。中国股市是非理性繁荣吗？2007年10月后股市“飞流直下”，又是怎么回事呢？ 中国股市暴涨暴跌都与货币政策有直接关系。在2008年世界金融危机传导到中国之前，由于中国的经济增长速度基本上可以预期。也就是说，假设企业红利的增长与经济增长同步，债券市场的收益曲线就是中国股市的主要决定因素。 什么决定中国债券市场的收益曲线呢？目前，金融界没有一个很好的模型。我用两个因素来模拟股市平均市盈率：一是短期利率（3个月～2年），这是由货币政策决定的；二是中长期利率（5～30年），这是由通货膨胀预期和实际增长率共同决定的。 从表3-5简单模拟计算，可以预计股市对货币政策作出强烈反应。如果中国人民银行（央行）提高短期利率，中长期利率随着提高，可以看到平均市盈率从52降到18，呈大幅度震荡。的确，央行在2006年多次加息，股市指数下跌。而在2004年股权分置改革之前，中国股市对货币政策基本是不敏感的。2009年，“大小非”的解禁成了悬在股市上空的“达摩克利斯剑”。但比起2006年以前股市制度性困境带来的“漫长的黑夜”，真是小巫见大巫了。2009年后美国经济终将从危机中复苏，世界金融危机会结束，中国高储蓄率和国际资本市场对中国的“万般宠爱”，中国新一轮大牛市可以期待。 按照“国九条”的规划，中国股票市场可能逐渐演化为4个层次：一、上海主板市场，将代表中国制造；二、深圳中小板市场。中小板定位可能趋向“中国消费”；三、深圳创业板市场代表“中国新经济”成为推动自主创新战略现成的重要平台；四、天津和一些国家级开发区建立的风险和私募投资场外交易平台，将加强高科技企业与投资公司的对接。 “国九条”指出，“积极稳妥发展债券市场。在严格控制风险的基础上，鼓励符合条件的企业通过发行公司债券筹集资金，改变债券融资发展相对滞后的状况，丰富债券市场品种，促进资本市场协调发展。制定和完善公司债券发行、交易、信息披露、信用评级等规章制度，建立健全资产抵押、信用担保等偿债保障机制。逐步建立集中监管、统一互联的债券市场”。必须指出，建立一个企业债券市场是一项系统工程，也是国际上的一个难题，涉及国债市场的发育，企业治理结构的改善，具有社会信誉的评级机构的出现和资深投资者，还需要法制建设的配合。从国内金融体系发展的先后次序上看，应先股市后债市。时至今日，中国企业债券市场的发展还远远不到位，需要长期坚韧不拔的努力。 中国国土辽阔，中国的大部分省、自治区和直辖市都相当于一个中等国家面积的大小。为了克服高度集中的弊端，新中国从建国初期就对地方政府采取了适度经济分权的方式，地方政府在当地经济事务中有很大的自主权，并且可以通过财政税收分享当地经济发展的收益。中央市场化导向的改革开放推动了地方制度创新。1993年，诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·福格尔指出，“领导层对实行什么样的经济政策或许会存在分歧，但他们的基本立场却是一致的，那就是中国应该继续推进向市场经济转型的改革”。此外，关于加大地方政府的经济决策权以推动经济增长这一点，领导层也没有异议。正如很多分析人士指出的那样，中国政府团结在一个叫做“市场联邦主义”的政策周围。 这种具有中国特色的联邦制会限制中央政府对经济决策的过多控制，促进地方政府之间的有效竞争，抑制寻租行为，并刺激创新型的地方企业的发展。这种联邦制在税收体系方面也体现得较为明显，被称为“财政联邦主义”，它可以避免税收对经济增长的抑制。在1994年的税收改革中，中央政府的权限限制在了增值税和中央下属的企业的所得税方面。此外，还建立了归属地方政府的地税局。尽管在财政体系构建的过程中还有很多工作要做，尤其是要缩小地方发展的不平衡，但这些问题都已经提上了国家领导人的改革日程。中央领导人同样明白地方自治权过多的危害和副作用——可能导致寻租、道德风险及其他形式的腐败，他们知道必须对地方政府的行为进行监管，同时在必要时对腐败给予处罚。要成功实现自治权的下放需要一个强有力的中央政府，它既能够将中央与地方的发展目标统一起来，又能很好地约束地方政府那些危害改革进程的腐败行为，同时还能对推动改革进程的地方政府给予奖励。 福格尔“市场联邦主义”看到了地方政府的积极性，但仅仅是局限在财政方面，没有考虑到地方政府在创造有效供给中的重要角色。中国中央政府有很多国家级经济政策，同时，也很注意给地方政府留下充分空间。1994年，中共十四届三中全会通过《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》指出要“合理划分中央与地方经济管理权限，发挥中央和地方两个积极性”。关于中央权限，“宏观经济调控权，包括货币的发行、基准利率的确定、汇率的调节和重要税种税率的调整等，必须集中在中央。这是保证经济总量平衡、经济结构优化和全国市场统一的需要”。关于地方权限，“我国国家大，人口多，必须赋予省、自治区和直辖市必要的权力，使其能够按照国家法律、法规和宏观政策，制订地区性的法规、政策和规划；通过地方税收和预算，调节本地区的经济活动；充分运用地方资源，促进本地区的经济和社会发展”。地方政府对中央政府的经济政策的执行力是很高的，同时注重把中央的大政方针与全球化的经济浪潮和地方实际情况相结合，发挥地方的比较优势，积极寻找清晰定位，营造良好的创新环境，使企业可持续地发展。 在生产力革命发生后，供给将发生很大的变化，有效供给的发展能够促进和刺激需求的增长。地方政府的创新能够帮助企业克服创新中遇到的困难。熊彼特在《经济发展理论》中认为，“在现有的经济体系中，新组合的实现会遇到很多困难。这些困难主要集中在三方面：第一，创新者没有关于新组合的经验、习惯，因此他难以根据熟知的数据来进行决策和制定行动规则。他只能根据自身掌握的有限的数据进行预测和估计。……第二，创新者会受到固定思维模式的影响。人们长期按照习惯的轨迹行事，会形成一种下意识的固定思维习惯。……第三，社会环境对创新者的影响，也就是反作用。它首先可能通过法律上或政治上的障碍表现出来。即使忽略这些障碍，一个社会集团成员，他的行为一旦偏离常规，就会受到谴责，从而对个人造成压力，而这种谴责所带来的社会的排斥，又给人造成身心障碍”。地方政府的创新降低了企业新组合的成本。 一个创新型区域经济是产业、劳动力、研究机构、金融、中介组织、政府政策与服务的多种要素聚焦和产生聚变的地方。中国地方政府在培育创新型经济区的过程中促进要素集聚，扮演着为企业提供“新组合”的角色。区域经济协作是进行这些区域的要素的大范围组合。从微观经济角度看，产业集群与传统工业的显著区别在于，将地区内的相关产业组合起来，可以加快创新步伐并可依据市场需求迅速进行调整。针对特定的地理区域和个体企业，中国地方政府制订出一系列政策。这些政策通常包括为开发工业区或科技园区而购置和获得土地。 开发区建设的努力还包括地区内的硬件基础设施，结合国家和地方财政资金，改善道路和用水、下水管道等服务。为了吸引企业入驻这些开发区，地方政府还提供支持以帮助企业进行行政许可申请、帮助企业招募和培训员工。企业的发展又在资本投资、劳动力、创新和供应链等方面加强了开发区的优势。而且，随着企业的发展，它们向国家和地区缴纳的税收也增强了地方政府提供公共资源（如熟练劳动力、研究能力、能源、水、废物处理和运输设施）的能力。这种良性的经济反馈环通常又称为产业与地区经济之间的“正馈环”。北京的“中关村”、上海的“张江”、天津的滨海新区和江苏的苏州工业园等是典型的例子。 在计划经济时期，国家注重大项目的地区分布，为中国区域协调发展奠定了良好基础。1956年，毛泽东在《论十大关系》中指出：“我国的工业过去集中在沿海。所谓沿海，是指辽宁、河北、北京、天津、河南东部、山东、安徽、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东、广西。我国全部轻工业和重工业，都有约70%在沿海，只有30%在内地。这是历史上形成的一种不合理的状况。沿海的工业基地必须充分利用，但是，为了平衡工业发展的布局，内地工业必须大力发展。” 1978年以后，在经济总体布局上，中国政府先后确立实施西部大开发、振兴东北老工业基地、促进中部地区崛起、鼓励东部地区率先发展等重大措施，逐步实现全面协调和可持续的区域经济发展，呈现出“群雄并起，三极鼎立”的区域协调发展新格局。“群雄并起”指的是东部率先、西部开发、东北振兴、中部崛起的格局，“三极鼎立”指的是长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大国际性都市圈。这样一种同时拥有多个增长中心的经济体在世界上其实并不多见，这种多样化也远远超过美国经济。美国经济主要是以华盛顿-纽约-波士顿走廊为核心的东部经济区和以芝加哥为中心的中部地区以及以加利福尼亚为主的西部地区。例如，加利福尼亚州的旧金山海湾地区就是一个经济中心，著名的硅谷就在此地。硅谷中的劳动力来自于整个旧金山海湾地区，这一区域覆盖4县9市（美国县比市大），每天往返于硅谷地区的工人随着距硅谷越远，人数也在不断下降。 与美国三个经济中心相比，中国出现多个经济中心增长模式，而且各有千秋，分散了中国经济的整体风险。日本著名管理学家大前研一高度赞赏中国的区域经济多样性。他认为，“放眼当今天下，世界仅有少数几个国家拥有如此众多不同的经济中心。美国是一个具有多经济中心的国家，如美国的波士顿、旧金山和芝加哥等大城市各有特色。大部分亚洲国家实际上都只有一个单一的经济和政治中心，如汉城（今首尔）、雅加达与曼谷。即使日本这个全球第二大经济体，也主要以东京为主。中国大陆目前拥有166个人口100万以上的城市，而且各自拥有独特的经济增长潜力。目前已形成珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和环渤海等6大经济圈”。 中国长三角、珠三角和环渤海三大经济区域在中国经济发展中具有重要的地位，其GDP占到全国总量的近40%，其中长三角地区占全国GDP的比重超过了20%，这些区域已经成为中国的经济增长极。2010年上海世博会后的世博园和迪士尼乐园将有“买一送一”的效果，每年让数千万人流连忘返。 长三角是中国也是世界上最有活力的城市群之一，近年来超过在改革开放中起步较早的珠三角。珠三角也不示弱，拿出“两个珠三角”的应对战略：一个是广东珠三角；另一个是近几年兴起的“泛珠三角”。目前广东珠三角已成为具有较强国际竞争力、高度外向的轻纺加工制造业基地和高新技术产业化基地。“粤港澳珠江三角洲”经济综合体直接腹地，成为拉动珠江流域经济共同发展的龙头。“泛珠三角”是东中西部联动合作，互补性强。福建、江西、湖南、广东、广西、海南、四川、贵州、云南9个省区和香港、澳门两个特别行政区于2004年6月在广