Chapter 21 Section 1 China Dream 3.0
"Those who don't plan for the whole world can't plan for a moment; those who don't plan for the overall situation can't plan for a region." When formulating an economic development strategy, both pragmatism and idealism are needed.Dream is a special concept, which has its own creativity and practicality.When I was studying in the UK, I never heard the British people talk about the "British Dream", but I felt that they still had the glory of the "Empire on which the sun never sets".When I came to the United States to work, I found that the American media often talked about the "American dream", one of which was that everyone owns their own house.The Chinese economic giant fell in modern times not because of technological backwardness, but because of lack of strategic vision, or lack of imagination.The "forbidden sea" after 1433 in the Ming Dynasty was the biggest economic strategic mistake in Chinese history. The reason is that it was not imagined that the wealth created by industry would far exceed that of agriculture.Therefore, the revival of China's economy must learn the lessons of history and cannot be without imagination.I am talking about the imagination of the "Chinese Dream" here, not to add to the far-reaching impact of the "Great Changes in China", but to have economic connotations.When Shenzhen was doing urban planning in the 1980s, it was determined that the urban population was 1 million, but now it is 14 million, which is 14 times more than what was envisioned back then!
From 2003 to 2005, when I lived near Washington, USA, I had to drive to the subway station every morning to go to work. What worried me most was that there would be no parking spaces if I went late.When I returned to Beijing, I was surprised to find that many stations of Beijing Metro Line 13 had no parking lots, and the roads were full of family cars.This shows that the people who designed Line 13 did not expect that Chinese cars would become popular so quickly.When China's foreign exchange reserves reached 300 billion U.S. dollars, no one would have thought that it would break through the 2 trillion U.S. dollar mark within a few years.Once a foreign friend asked me: "Where are all the bicycles on the streets in China?" I was dumbfounded, and I didn't notice this social phenomenon.
Since 1949, the development goals formulated by China not only reflect the ambition to pursue its own economic revival, its eternal theme is to enrich the country and the people, but also reflect the sense of responsibility for human economic development. In 1949, China achieved the first major liberation of productive forces. The goal of economic development was to establish an independent and complete industrial system, striving to catch up with or even surpass developed countries in a short period of time.The goal of industrialization is the concentrated expression of China's desire to save the nation and strengthen itself in modern times, and it has a strong historical complex.Mao Zedong said before the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949: “Without industry, there will be no solid national defense, no people’s welfare, and no prosperity of the country.” After the realization of a relatively simple goal of industrialization, China proposed a new dream of a more comprehensive modernization .Modernization is the self-cognition of the gap between China and the world in modern times, and it is the continuation of the dream of becoming a powerful country.China not only only considers the prosperity of its own people, but also always thinks about its contribution to the world. In 1956, Mao Zedong pointed out: "Because China is a country with a land area of 9.6 million square kilometers and a population of 600 million, China should make a greater contribution to mankind. And this kind of contribution, over a long period of time in the past, Too little. It makes us feel ashamed."
In December 1964, Zhou Enlai announced at the First Session of the Third National People's Congress that the Third Five-Year Plan would be implemented from 1966, proposing to realize the "four modernizations" of agriculture, industry, science and technology, and national defense.This is the first time that China has solemnly proposed the strategic goal of realizing the "four modernizations", which I call "Chinese Dream 1.0".However, "Chinese Dream 1.0" was interrupted by the full-scale outbreak of the "Cultural Revolution" in 1966. In January 1975, Zhou Enlai re-proposed the grand goal of fully realizing the "four modernizations" of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology within the 20th century in the "Government Work Report" of the First Session of the Fourth National People's Congress. "Chinese Dream 1.0" greatly encouraged the Chinese people who were in the later stages of the "Cultural Revolution" and sent a strong signal to the world that China would return to the track of economic development. On December 6, 1979, Deng Xiaoping gave a brilliant explanation of the "Four Modernizations".He said: "The goal of the four modernizations was set by Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou when they were alive. The so-called four modernizations are to change China's poverty and backwardness, not only to gradually improve people's living standards, but also to make China's international reputation In affairs, you can restore a position that suits your situation, and make a little more contribution to mankind.”
On December 18, 1978, the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a strategic decision centering on economic construction and reform and opening up, which has become the basic national policy of the People's Republic of China for a long time.From engaging in construction behind closed doors to opening up to the world, from cocooning within the planned economy system to comprehensively starting economic system reform, China has completed a majestic economic policy and strategic transformation in a short period of time, and achieved the second level of productivity. Second Great Liberation.
After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party, Deng Xiaoping pioneered the new "Chinese Dream" of "moderately prosperous society", which I call "Chinese Dream 2.0".
Deng Xiaoping not only described a well-off society - "Chinese Dream 2.0", but also conceived a "two-step" development strategy.When Deng Xiaoping proposed the goal of quadrupling the GNP within 20 years in the late 1970s, he called it an ambitious goal. On December 6, 1979, when Deng Xiaoping held talks with the then Japanese Prime Minister Masahiro Ohira, Prime Minister Ohira asked him a question: "China has put forward a grand modernization plan based on its own standpoint, and will build China into a great socialist country. What will China be like in the future? How is the blueprint for the entire modernization conceived?" Masaoyo Ohira's question prompted Deng Xiaoping to propose a grand vision.He said: "The four modernizations we want to achieve are Chinese-style modernizations. Even if our four modernizations have reached a certain goal by the end of this century, our national per capita income is still very low. To reach the third We still have to put in a lot of effort to reach the level of the richer countries in the world, such as the per capita income of US$1,000. Even if we reach that level, we are still lagging behind compared with the West. I can only He said that China is still in a moderately prosperous state.” Deng Xiaoping was based on the national conditions of China’s per capita income of only about 300 US dollars at that time, and imagined that the Chinese people would live in ample food and clothing 20 years later.At that time, the international economic circles were basically skeptical of Deng Xiaoping's target, because this target meant that China's per capita income must maintain an annual growth rate of 7% within 20 years.In other words, the "Japanese Miracle" or "East Asian Miracle" could be replicated in China with a population of 1.3 billion, which is unimaginable.Deng Xiaoping himself said later: "This answer was inaccurate at the time, but it was not casual." In fact, his answer was very accurate.
The well-off goal proposed by Deng Xiaoping shows that national prosperity is the essence of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and embodies the people-oriented thought. At the Twelfth National Congress of the Communist Party of China in September 1982, it was determined as the goal of the whole party and the people of the whole country until the end of the 20th century. In 2001, as Deng Xiaoping envisioned, the Chinese economy reached the historic goal of US$1,000 per capita, and the "Chinese Dream 2.0" was successfully realized.
After the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping had a keen insight into the fact that China's per capita moderately prosperous goal of US$1,000 by the end of the 20th century was about to become a reality.Deng Xiaoping further conceived of China's development strategy in the 21st century, and put forward the "Chinese Dream 3.0", which is touching, dreamlike, poetic and magnificent.In ancient Rome, Julius Caesar galloped on the battlefield and was invincible. His famous saying is, "I have seen, I have come, and I have conquered".The boldness of Julius Caesar only lies in the development of regions, while the boldness of Deng Xiaoping's "Chinese Dream 3.0" transcends time and space, shaking the past and shining the present.No wonder the US "Time Magazine" named Deng Xiaoping as the "Man of the Year" twice, and wrote in the preface of the first issue in 1979: "A dreamer of a new China—Deng Xiaoping opened the 'Central Road' to the world. The gate of the country'. This is a magnificent and unique feat in the history of mankind!"
On October 6, 1984, Deng Xiaoping proposed: "We have set a political goal: to develop the economy, quadruple it by the end of the 20th century, achieve a per capita GDP of 800 US dollars, and achieve a well-off standard of living for the people. This goal is very important for developed countries. For China, it is insignificant, but for China, it is an ambition and a grand goal. More importantly, on this basis, it will develop in another 30 to 50 years and strive to approach the level of developed countries in the world. It will not be easy to achieve our goal.” In many subsequent conversations and speeches, he repeatedly mentioned this “Chinese Dream 3.0”. On April 16, 1987, when Deng Xiaoping met with members of the Drafting Committee of the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, he pointed out that after reaching a well-off level of US$1,000 per capita, "in another 50 years, it will quadruple to US$4,000 per capita. ... China is It was a moderately developed country. At that time, the population of 1.5 billion meant that the gross national product was 6 trillion U.S. dollars. This was calculated based on the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the renminbi in 1980. This number must be among the highest in the world.”Later, when Deng Xiaoping met with the then Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Guerra, he put forward the idea of a three-step development strategy for the first time.He expressed it this way: "It has been nearly nine years since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee at the end of 1978. It is the first step. The original goal of the first step was to double in the 1980s, taking 1980 as the base. At that time, the per capita GNP was only 250 US dollars, and doubled to 500 US dollars. The second step is to double again by the end of the 20th century, to 1,000 US dollars per capita. Achieving this goal means that we will enter a moderately prosperous society and turn the impoverished China Become a well-off China. At that time, the gross national product exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. Although the per capita figure is still very low, the power of the country has greatly increased. The more important goal we set is the third step. The third step is In the 21st century, it will take 30 to 50 years to quadruple again."
In 1987, the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China confirmed Deng Xiaoping's vision and clearly stated: "After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party, the strategic deployment of my country's economic construction will generally be divided into three steps. The first step is to achieve the ratio of GDP to Doubling in 1980 to solve the problem of food and clothing for the people. The second step is to double the gross national product by the end of the 20th century and the people's living standards to reach a well-off level. This task has basically been achieved. The third step is to reach the middle of the 21st century , the per capita GNP has reached the level of moderately developed countries, the people’s lives are relatively affluent, and modernization has been basically realized.” In 1997, the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China reaffirmed the development goal of reaching the middle of the 21st century and spanning 50 years.
However, the difficulty of the three strategic goals is not the same, the most difficult is the third step.Deng Xiaoping said: "Now we can say that the original goal of the first step can be completed this year or next year ahead of schedule. This does not mean that the second step will be easy. It seems that the goal of the second step can also be completed, but the second step The third step is much more difficult than the first two. More than 8 years have proved that we are on the right path. But to prove that socialism is really superior to capitalism, we need to look at the third step, and we can’t afford to brag about it now Bull. We still need fifty or sixty years of hard work."
1997 started off in a calm state.The large-scale documentary "Deng Xiaoping" was broadcast nationwide.In the last period of his life, Deng Xiaoping quietly read "Deng Xiaoping" about himself on the hospital bed.The CCTV documentary "The Great Journey" described: "From Deng Xiaoping's serious illness to his death, there were more than two months between. In the last stage of his life, Deng Xiaoping's thinking was still clear, but he did not leave any last words. For Deng Xiaoping Said that the talk in the south is his last entrustment.” Why is it said that the talk in the south is Deng Xiaoping’s last entrustment?Consult the third volume of "Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping", which ends with the last article of the 1992 South Talk.In this famous southern talk, the last paragraph is as follows: "Capitalism has developed for hundreds of years, how long has it been for us to practice socialism! What's more, we have delayed it for 20 years. If we use 100 years since the founding of the People's Republic of my country, It will be great to build our country into a medium-level developed country in 20 years! From now to the middle of the next century, it will be a very critical period, and we must work hard. The burden on our shoulders is heavy, and the responsibility is great!" It turned out that when Deng Xiaoping passed away, what he was thinking about was the third strategic goal of China's economic development, that is, "China Dream 3.0".
On February 19, 1997, the great man of the century passed away, shocking the whole world.At that time, I was studying in England.The British BBC made an exception and interrupted all ongoing programs to broadcast Deng Xiaoping's life.The next day, almost all important British newspapers published the news of Deng Xiaoping's death on their front pages. Some foreign students told me that the influence of the death of your country's leader is incredible.Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher made a speech, highly praised Deng Xiaoping, but also called attention to "China's intentions."The world pays attention not only to China when Deng Xiaoping was alive, but also to China's development after Deng Xiaoping's death, which is China's economic revival that will eventually change the destiny of human economic development.
The party's third-generation central leadership group with Jiang Zemin at the core and the party's central leadership group with Hu Jintao as the general secretary since the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China have inherited the past and ushered in the future, carried forward the great cause of reform and opening up, and led the Chinese people to approach the great cause of reform and opening up step by step. "Chinese Dream 3.0".
In June 1989, Comrade Deng Xiaoping suggested, "Organize a team to study the development strategy and planning for the first 50 years of the next century." Since the mid-1990s, China's economic development strategy has been significantly strengthened. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have both foresight and pragmatism, with a combination of tenacity and courage. They have accurately judged the stage of economic development and grasped the timing of major policies.
Between the second and third strategic goals, the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2002 cleverly stepped up and designed "Chinese Dream 2.5".According to international experience, from a per capita income of US$1,000 to US$4,000, China needs to overcome the "middle income trap".According to the definition of the World Bank, the concept of "middle-income trap" is that middle-income countries are squeezed in the middle by low-wage poor country competitors and technologically advanced rich countries, and are in an embarrassing situation of neither end, becoming a "sandwich biscuit". ".The low-cost strategy that middle-income countries were good at in the past is no longer applicable. New competitive advantages must be established through technological advancement and brand building.The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China judged the situation and clearly realized that it is not impossible for the Chinese economy to hover between one or two thousand dollars for a long time. Without losing the opportunity, it was pointed out that the first 20 years of the 21st century are an important strategic opportunity that must be firmly grasped and can make great achievements. In the short term, we must concentrate our efforts to comprehensively build a higher-level moderately prosperous society that will benefit more than one billion people. On the basis of optimizing the structure and improving efficiency, we will strive to quadruple the GDP by 2020 compared to 2000.
Chinese leaders are clearly aware that the well-off society that China has achieved is still low-level, incomplete, and very unbalanced, and the gap between regional income and urban-rural income is still widening. In 2007, while continuing to confirm the goals of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to continue to build a well-off society in an all-round way under the new economic conditions. On the basis of reducing energy consumption and protecting the environment, the per capita GDP will quadruple that of 2000 by 2020."
Judging from international experience, an economy will face complex challenges in the process from per capita US$1,000 to per capita US$4,000.In the report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the goals and measures for fully implementing the scientific outlook on development and building a harmonious socialist society were put forward, and the problem of unbalanced social development in the "middle-income trap" stage was actively dealt with. The "Chinese Dream 2.5" was boldly proposed, namely "Efforts to make all the people have education, earn income, receive medical treatment, provide care for old age, and live in housing" shows China's pursuit of "old people are old, and people are old, young and young". , and the efforts of the ideal society of the "children of man". In 2008, in terms of the sources of livelihood of the elderly aged 65 and over, 46.0% of the elderly mainly relied on other family members for support, followed by labor income and retirement pensions, accounting for 25.9% and 23.6% respectively. We still have a long way to go for "care for the elderly" to enter "China Dream 2.5".The per capita income in the United States has reached more than 40,000 US dollars, but there are still about 40 million people without medical insurance, and medical reform has become the most difficult problem. In 2009, China's new medical reform announced the grand goal of making all citizens "seek medical treatment".Compared with the "American Dream", realizing the "China Dream 2.5" in a country with a population of 1.3 billion shows even more ambition and firm will.
From the realization of the "China Dream 2.5" of an all-round well-off society in 2020 to the completion of the third strategic goal of "China Dream 3.0" in 2049, there will be a gap of 29 years, in which there will be a "high-level manufacturing trap" and a new productivity revolution. and the challenges of intricate international economic competition.The development of leading industries is too delicate. When a new productivity revolution breaks out and emerging industries need to emerge and grow, a "winner's curse" will occur, and high-income countries will be locked in traditional leading industries and cannot extricate themselves.One of the important reasons why China has been unable to embark on the road of industrial economy in modern times is that it has fallen into the "high-level dynamic equilibrium" of agricultural economy and cannot extricate itself.The long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy since 1991 is because the manufacturing industry is too developed, falling into the "trap of high-level manufacturing", and the information industry cannot develop. "Made in China" will lead the world's manufacturing industry, but from 2020 to 2049, the Chinese economy must be vigilant against being locked on the road of "Made in China" ".
From the perspective of the overall pattern of international economic and financial competition, the Chinese economy is "there are pacesetters before, and there are pursuers behind". Since 2008, although the U.S. economy has been hit hard by the financial crisis, it will still have an average annual growth rate of about 2% to 3% in the long run. China's reserves are also far ahead of other countries in the world.Therefore, the United States is the "pacesetter" of China's economy in emerging industries.After 1991, India achieved rapid growth by relying on "India Services". Since 2004, "Made in India" has begun to pick up. In the future, "Made in India" may rise rapidly, and the growth rate may exceed that of China. "Chasing soldiers".
Imagination breeds vision, and vision determines success or failure.In the 1990s, the Big Three in Detroit were satisfied with the high demand for their small trucks and jeeps, and turned a deaf ear to the competition of Japanese cars in small models, and did not conduct large-scale research and development of energy-saving vehicles.When world oil prices soared in 2007, the demand for fuel-guzzling pickup trucks and jeeps dropped sharply, causing heavy damage to the three major auto giants, which were on the verge of bankruptcy. In January 2009, China's auto sales surpassed that of the United States.Although this number is not stable, it illustrates the huge size of China's actual and potential market.General Motors did not imagine that the "Bicycle Kingdom" would become a "Car Kingdom" in just 30 years. With the further increase of per capita income and the process of urbanization, China will become a "Car Kingdom" in the near future.It was General Motors of the United States that first introduced the concept of joint ventures to China, but the joint venture failed.If General Motors had entered China in 1980, German Volkswagen, then a second-tier automaker, would not have taken the lead.Well, today, it will be General Motors, not Santana and Audi, that runs the most in China's streets and alleys. General Motors may not be so vulnerable under the financial crisis.
Chinese leaders have not only pragmatically aimed at the "Chinese Dream 2.5" of building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, but also made far-sighted strategic preparations for the "Chinese Dream 3.0" in 2049. On September 5, 1988, Deng Xiaoping made the conclusion that "science and technology are the primary productive forces"; in 1995, Jiang Zemin pointed out: "Innovation is the soul of a nation's progress and an inexhaustible driving force for a country's prosperity." In 2006, 1 On March 10, General Secretary Hu Jintao clearly stated the strategic goal of building an innovative country in his speech at the National Science and Technology Conference. He said: "By 2020, my country's independent innovation capabilities will be significantly enhanced, and science and technology will promote economic and social development and guarantee The capability of national security has been significantly enhanced, the comprehensive strength of basic science and cutting-edge technology research has been significantly enhanced, a number of scientific and technological achievements with great influence in the world have been achieved, and China has entered the ranks of innovative countries, providing strong support for the comprehensive construction of a moderately prosperous society.” 2007 In 2010, the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also raised independent innovation as a national strategy, and implemented the enhancement of independent innovation capabilities in all aspects of economic construction.Because the Chinese economy will continue to develop on the road of "Made in China", it is still difficult to realize the vision of "Building an Innovative National Strategy", and the "New Chinese Economy" will gradually emerge after 2029.
In November 2008, Hu Angang, director of the National Conditions Analysis Office of the Ecological Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, encouraged Chinese people to dare to dream in an exclusive interview with Netease Finance.In my opinion, it seems that although the world financial crisis that started in 2008 and the world economic recession triggered by it have severely impacted the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy will still ride the wind and waves and move forward bravely.The goal set by the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China to reach the goal of 4,000 US dollars per capita GDP in 2020 will be completed ahead of schedule, and China will surpass the "Chinese Dream 2.5".The Chinese economy will be able to become the world's largest economy again in 2029, as many scholars at home and abroad have predicted. After 2029, China will enter a passionate era of pursuing "Chinese Dream 3.0".China is a dream-driven economy.Only unexpected, nothing impossible.
Notes:
Notes: