Chapter 18 Section 1 Great Country Falls
At the same time as the "Heyday of Kangxi and Qianlong", Europe came out of the darkness of the Middle Ages that lasted 800 years, and the Renaissance movement began, and a series of new knowledge and new technologies were widely accepted. At the beginning of the 18th century, Newton discovered the law of universal gravitation, Leibniz established the calculus system, and Bacon shouted the call of the times that "knowledge is power".What's more, Britain had an industrial revolution in 1820.At this time, China was still immersed in the glory of the "Middle Kingdom" and the afterglow of the prosperous agricultural economy, and lost its imagination.To use a sentence in "Hanshu·Yiwenzhi", it means "people's hearts are still stuck in their old views, and God's will has changed a new situation."
The Industrial Revolution led to a "big shift" in the world's economic structure.Yale University historian Paul Kennedy pointed out in the book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers": "The balance of international power gradually became unfavorable to the old first-class powers, and favored those who had both resources and were good at organizing and utilizing new production tools. countries with new technologies.” From Table 2-3, it can be seen that in the 150 years from 1750 to 1900, the Industrial Revolution led to drastic changes in the relative share of the world’s manufacturing industry.Changes in the relative share of manufacturing represent changes in the world economic structure.On the one hand, there is the rise of great powers.The first is the rise of Great Britain.The United Kingdom seized the opportunity of the productivity revolution and transformed from an island country into the world's largest economic power, reaching the number one share of the world's manufacturing industry in 1880. In 1851, the first World Expo held in London's Crystal Palace showed the world the glory of the British industrial economy and the daily life of the British.
Followed by the frog leap of the United States, its share of the world's manufacturing industry has soared from 0.1% in 1750 to 23.6%, surpassing the United Kingdom.Once again, Germany is catching up. After the reunification of Germany in 1871, it completed an industrial revolution from top to bottom, catching up at the pace of a giant.By 1900, its share of the world's manufacturing industry was approaching that of Britain, resulting in the imbalance of European economic strength.On the other hand is the decline of great powers.The total manufacturing share of China, India and Pakistan dropped from nearly 60% of the world total in 1750 to 8% in 1900.China and India lead in the agricultural economy, but lag behind in the industrial economy. The two ancient civilizations have declined. China and India, once the "leaders" of the world economy, have been left behind by Western countries.Japan's economic share in the world has not changed much, indicating that Japan has basically maintained its economic status during the reshuffle of the industrial revolution.As the two economic giants of China and India have fallen one after another, Japan has become an upstart in Asia.
Relying on the opportunity of the Industrial Revolution, the United Kingdom established the "British Empire" that spanned five continents and surpassed the Roman Empire. In 1839, the steam engine had been armed to the gunboat, and it could be used for expeditions across the oceans. The British Navy controlled the global oceans.Countries still stuck in an agricultural economy were vulnerable to gunboat fire.First Egypt, with its long history, was conquered, and then India.China has already lost its leading position in the world economy, and it is only a matter of time before it fails.Huang Renyu has a deep understanding of the situation China is facing, and vividly describes the historical freeze of the Ming Dynasty in the 16th century after the death of Zhang Juzheng, that is, the state before it conflicted with the trend of the industrial revolution.
He said that with such a big historical failure, "it can be guaranteed that the conflict will start, and it is absolutely impossible to restore the old state, thus leaving China with an opportunity to completely create history."However, this "earth-shaking opportunity" has plunged China's economy into a century-old sinking, long-term social turmoil, and people's living standards of abject poverty for more than 100 years. The price is too great and the humiliation is too heavy.Marx once pointed out profoundly and far-sightedly: "A great empire whose population accounts for almost 1/3 of mankind, disregarding the current situation, complacent about the status quo, artificially isolated from the world, and therefore trying to deceive itself with the illusion of perfection in China. Such an empire is doomed He was defeated in the last desperate duel." According to the historical period, China's economic stagnation in the early period of a century was due to the failure of the "Westernization Movement", and in the later period it was due to the long-term imbalance of international payments and the sky-high indemnity of the "Xin Chou Treaty". plunged the Chinese economy into a debt crisis.
The collision of a sinking number one economic power and a rising number one economic power finally took place in 1840.The Opium War was a turning point in China's millennium history and a major event of heaven and earth. At the beginning of August 1839, the Qing government banned smoking, and the British East India Company actively lobbied in the UK. The British Parliament had a heated debate on this, and finally adopted a military strike against the Qing Dynasty with 271 votes to 262 votes.The war case was passed with a narrow margin of 9 votes. In addition to showing Britain's inner moral condemnation of using the criminal opium trade as an excuse to start a war, it also has deep doubts about whether China is a "real tiger" or a "paper tiger". In June 1840, more than 40 British ships and 4,000 soldiers led by Yilu arrived at the surface of the Pearl River.
To the Qing government, such a scene was like aliens invading the earth in a Hollywood blockbuster. A large group of unknown objects suddenly appeared on the sea, and they were extremely surprised.The First Opium War officially began.Despite the heroic admiral Guan Tianpei, the Chinese defenders were still unable to withstand the mobility and continuous firepower of the British armored gunboats. In the Opium War from 1840 to 1842, Britain defeated the Qing Empire, which was once regarded as a "real tiger" by the world.After two years of military and diplomatic contests, the Treaty of Nanjing, the first unequal treaty in modern Chinese history, was signed in 1842.The failure of the first Opium War caused China's international status to decline rapidly, and the Qing government's national strength and military and diplomatic weaknesses were all exposed. It became a "paper tiger" and triggered a frenzy of foreign aggression. After the "Nanjing Treaty", unequal treaties continued to appear, and the Qing Dynasty had fallen into a passive situation.
Angus Maddison pointed out that during the period from 1820 to 1952, the world economy made great progress, while China suffered from technological backwardness, civil strife and invasion by foreign powers.According to Maddison: "Because of technological backwardness and governance weaknesses, China from 1840 to 1950 was plagued by civil strife and invasions of its territory and sovereignty by allied foreign powers, which brought disaster to the economy. Sexual consequences." In 1820, China's total GDP accounted for 32.9% of the world's total GDP, ranking first in the world; by 1952 it had dropped to 5.2%.This is because the average annual growth rate of China's GDP during the period from 1820 to 1952 was only 0.22%, far lower than the average annual growth rate of world GDP of 1.64% during the same period.
In 1892, Engels believed that "China's standard of living is the lowest in the world." In 2007, Eric Izralevich said in "When China Changes the World": "China has been one of the poorest countries in the world for a long time, and until recently, it basically quietly."
China's per capita income barely changed from 1870 to 1948.Madison pointed out that from 1890 to 1952, the average annual growth rate of China's per capita income was negative 0.10%, which means that per capita income was gradually declining, while the world's per capita GDP growth rate was 0.93% during the same period. The relative gap in the level of per capita GDP widened significantly.
In response to the challenge from the West, from 1860 to 1894, the Westernization Movement of the Qing government set off a "Westernization Movement" in some parts of the country that "learned the skills of the barbarians to control the barbarians". In 1840, China was faced with the invasion of a big power (Britain), while the United States, Japan, Germany, and Russia had just started to learn from Britain and embarked on the road of industrialization one after another, and had not yet become new powers abroad.Therefore, from the Second Opium War in 1860 to the Sino-Japanese War of 1895, China had a relatively stable international environment.Unfortunately, during this rare historical opportunity, the "Westernization Movement" promoted by several local governments in the Qing Dynasty made serious strategic mistakes.
The "Westernization Movement" was initiated by several local officials. With the slogan of "self-improvement", new military industries were established in several provinces through the introduction of large machines and production technology. In 1861, Zeng Guofan founded the Anqing Ordnance Institute, marking the beginning of the "Westernization Movement". In 1863, Zeng Guofan held the historic "Anqing Talks" with Yung Wing, the "Father of Chinese Overseas Students" in Anqing, which led to the first introduction of equipment in Chinese history, which is legendary.Zeng Guofan asked Yung Wing: "Today, if we want to seek the most beneficial and important business for China, where should we start?" Rong Wing suggested to build a Western-style machine mother factory: "This factory should have machines for making machines, so that all manufacturing The foundation of the factory." Yung Wing's suggestion moved Zeng Guofan. On December 3, 1863, dispatched by the Qing government, Yung Wing went to the United States alone to purchase machines with 68,000 taels of silver.Two years later, in 1865, the machine arrived in Shanghai and became the main source of equipment for the Jiangnan Manufacturing Bureau. On December 21, 1866, Zeng Guofan published the film "Rong Wing went to the West to buy ironworks and machinery for meritorious service please reward him" to the Qing government. For two years, the planned distance is more than 40,000 li. It is really hard to compare with the ancients who went on missions. It should be rewarded and encouraged."
I have two feelings about this history.First, Yung Wing went to the United States to purchase machines, showing the motherland's infinite trust in the "father of Chinese students studying abroad" and the infinite loyalty of the "father of Chinese students studying abroad" to the motherland.What kind of trust is it to hand over 68,000 taels of silver to a person who has known him for less than a year, and send him to a strange country where there is no legal restriction between the two countries!Yung Wing carried a large amount of cash and took great risks. It took two years to purchase the machine and ship it back to China!Zhang Qian was sent to the Western Regions in the Western Han Dynasty, and Rong Hong was sent to the United States in the late Qing Dynasty.As Tuyiquer commented on Yung Wing in his speech at Yale Law School on April 10, 1878, he "from head to toe, every nerve fiber in his body is patriotic. He loves China, trusts in China, and is convinced that China will have a bright future, worthy of its magnificent mountains and rivers and great history."
Second, the "father of Chinese students studying abroad" is not an economist, which is a pity of history.I think it would have been nice if Yung Wing had suggested to Zeng Guofan to buy textile machines during the Anqing meeting.At that time, the United States had learned the technology of textile machines from Britain and could produce textile machines.With 68,000 taels of silver, a considerable-scale textile factory can be built. There is no problem in the Chinese labor force and consumer market. The investment in the textile factory can be recovered very quickly, and the reproduction can be expanded to let the original capital roll.When the domestic textile industry develops to a certain scale, profits from the textile industry can be used to invest in the equipment manufacturing industry.If Yung Wing suggested that starting from the textile industry is the best economic development model, Zeng Guofan might accept it, and if Zeng Guofan accepted it, other "Westernization Movement" officials might accept it.However, Chinese textile factories were not established in Shanghai until around 1890, nearly 30 years later than the "Anqing Talks" between Yung Wing and Zeng Guofan in 1863.The lack of a group of qualified economists in China's modern history can be described as the tragedy of the times.
After the establishment of the Jiangnan Manufacturing Bureau in 1865, the Qing government successively established the Tianjin Machinery Manufacturing Bureau, the Jinling Manufacturing Bureau, and the Fuzhou Shipping Bureau. In 1872, the Shipping Merchants Bureau was established.For the Westernization Movement, the central government of the Qing Dynasty only acquiesced, and the Zongli Yamen with a sense of reform was only a central ministerial unit, and did not form a strong organizational force in the central government.Therefore, the "Westernization Movement" failed to be promoted nationwide.In addition, the financial support of the central government of the Qing Dynasty for the "Westernization Movement" was very limited. For more than 30 years, the total financial investment was less than 100 million taels of silver, less than 5% of the total fiscal revenue, and the policy stimulus was far from enough.Because the "Westernization Movement" adopted a strategy of giving priority to military industry, there was no consumer market for the products of these military industries. In addition, the micro-management mechanism of enterprises run by government-supervised businesses did not accumulate profits, so there was little possibility of continued investment through profit accumulation. The "Westernization Movement" took the capital-intensive military equipment industry as the entry point, which was a basic strategic mistake. It failed to bring about economic growth, failed to transform China's agricultural-based economy into an industrial economy, and did not invest in human capital on a large scale. It cannot break the "high-level dynamic equilibrium" of the millennium.
The main currency in circulation in the Chinese economy is silver.Economist Zhang Wuchang first proposed in 1999 that the Chinese economy was deflationary and economically depressed due to the outflow of silver. The "Nanjing Treaty" stipulated that China's tariff was 4% to 10%, bringing the Chinese economy into the free trade system. At the same time, China lacked a supply-side response and did not develop an "export-oriented" light industry, resulting in a long-term trade deficit.Under the capital account, the small amount of foreign direct investment cannot make up for the huge war reparations that have occurred.As a result, the Chinese economy experienced "double deficits" in the current account and the capital account, and the long-term imbalance in the balance of payments led to the long-term loss of silver.The money supply of China's economy is insufficient, and the "blood loss" is serious.From Figure 2-5, we can see that from 1867 to 1897, there was a 30-year deflation in China. From 1897 to 1911, Chinese prices came out of deflation.This is not that China discovered the "silver mine", but that the international monetary system has changed. In 1821, Britain adopted the gold standard. At the end of the 19th century, the gold standard was re-established in the international monetary system, which led to a sharp drop in the silver-to-gold ratio in the international exchange rate market and imported inflation in China.
Meanwhile, Japan's per capita income was roughly the same as China's in 1870. In the middle of the 19th century, Japan signed the unequal Treaty of Kanagawa under the gunboat policy of the United States.Facing the challenge of the Industrial Revolution, the Meiji Restoration began in 1868. From 1868 to 1873, Japan carried out a drastic economic reform movement to promote industrialization centered on light industry.The entry point for Japan is the textile industry.At that time, the British global textile chain was like this: (1) Cotton planting and primary processing in India and the southern United States; (2) Spinning in England; (3) Weaving and dyeing in England; (4) Clothing in England; (5) Sold all over the world.Starting from the sales chain, Japan first imported British textiles, sold them domestically, and cultivated the domestic market, then imported cotton yarns, made them into primary products in China, and sold them domestically.Although the quality of domestic textiles is not as good as that made in the UK, the price is cheap and the quality is always better than handmade products, so it has a growing market segment. In the 1870s, Japan established several state-run textile factories. Due to poor management and small scale, they were later privatized and technologically innovated. In 1883, the textile industry in Osaka began to make a profit, and in 1900, Japan became one of the major exporters of textiles.For an economy, the "first pot of gold" is the most difficult to dig out. Once it is dug out, "money generates money". The compound interest of the original capital is amazing.Starting from the textile industry, Japan gradually began to upgrade its industries. In just half a century, Japan became the only industrial power in the world except Europe and the United States.
In 1894, China went through the "Westernization Movement" for 34 years, and Japan went through the Reformation Movement for 26 years.Internationally, it is widely expected that a war will break out between China and Japan.Before the war, Li Hongzhang made a high-profile tour of the Beiyang Navy to show his strength.At that time, the international community was generally optimistic about China. In 1894, the Chinese and Japanese navies encountered each other at Dadonggou in the Yellow Sea, and a naval battle broke out, and the Beiyang Navy suffered heavy losses.As Weihaiwei was raided from land by the Japanese army, the Beiyang Navy was destroyed, marking the failure of the "Westernization Movement".In the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, China was defeated by the "little-known" Japan, and staged a "snake swallowing elephant" that shocked the world. Since then, the international status of the Qing Empire has plummeted, and it has become the target of old and new powers.Compared with the Opium War, the Sino-Japanese Sino-Japanese War of 1899-1999 gave the Chinese people an extremely strong spiritual stimulation, which produced unprecedented historical tragedy. From self-confidence to inferiority, they no longer dared to have the Chinese dream.The news of the defeat spread to Beijing, the capital was filled with mourning, and the ruling and opposition parties hugged each other and cried.Mr. Yan Fu concluded: "As of today, China is weak and weak, and it will not be clear until the wise. It is a deep shame and shame, and there is no one who can hide it."
Zheng Guanying said, "It is impossible to protect a country without being rich, and it is impossible to maintain wealth without being strong."Self-improvement must be backed by economic development, and rushing to develop the military industry will result in waste of speed.The navy has become a bottomless pit of state investment. Even if the Empress Dowager Cixi did not misappropriate naval military expenditures, the Qing government's finances would not be able to support the expenditure and weapon renewal of a huge fleet.Li Hongzhang once had a profound self-summary of the "Westernization Movement": "I have been doing things all my life, including military training and the navy. They are all paper tigers. How can I really let go of them, but they are just barely painted, ostentatious, not exposed. It can be perfunctory for a while.” To be honest, a “tiger” must spend money, and the support of economic strength is decisive.
Therefore, the best strategy for the "Westernization Movement" in 1860 should be to develop the textile industry.The Qing government should give full play to its comparative advantage of low labor costs and use limited local financial input to gradually realize industrialization starting from the textile industry instead of the capital-intensive military industry.Textiles have a large domestic market demand and can also be exported to earn foreign exchange.On the one hand, it can realize the original capital accumulation, on the other hand, it can alleviate China's long-term trade deficit and increase the domestic money supply.As the level of capital accumulation continues to increase, the domestic savings rate will gradually rise, and capital will become relatively more abundant, and then the military industry will be gradually developed, and national defense, especially coastal defense, will be strengthened.If the Qing government had a strong economic backing, it would be able to build another navy after the collapse of the Beiyang Navy; without economic backing, the collapse of the Beiyang Navy would be a complete failure.The Sino-Japanese "Treaty of Shimonoseki" plunged the Qing Dynasty into a financial crisis, making ends meet. On the one hand, it marked the bankruptcy of the "Westernization Movement"; on the other hand, the central and local governments were unable to support the capital-intensive "Westernization Movement".History cannot be assumed, and it does not believe in tears. The "Westernization Movement" not only did not bring economic growth to China, but instead missed a period of strategic opportunities that could have won development, which can be described as wasted years. "The rise and fall of a country, although it is called the destiny, is it not a human matter!"
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