Chapter 7 Section 2 Productivity Revolution
What does the productivity revolution mean?We need to understand a "concept" first: uncertainty.When China's "Economic Observer" interviewed international investor George Soros in September 2001, the interviewer's last question was: "What are you most afraid of?" Soros replied: "I am not afraid of anything, nor Losing money, but I'm afraid of uncertainty." I believe Soros' fear of uncertainty is the key to his philosophy.Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics shows the objective existence of uncertainty.It is impossible to measure the position of a particle precisely because the measurement has to illuminate the particle with a photon, and once the photon illuminates the particle, the particle changes position, so its position cannot be precisely determined.Similarly, there is an idiom in China that goes "three in the morning and four in the evening".The allusion is this: In ancient times, a man raised a group of monkeys and gave each monkey a certain amount of acorns to eat every day. Once the man encountered some financial difficulties and had to reduce the number of acorns fed to the monkeys to 7 acorns a day. .
He discusses with the monkeys the number of acorns in the morning and evening.The man said to the monkeys: "I will give you three acorns in the morning and four acorns in the evening, okay?" The monkeys shook their heads, so the man said to the monkeys: "Then I will give you each Only eat 4 acorns in the morning and 3 acorns in the evening, okay?" The monkeys happily accepted.In the past, people often laughed at monkeys, thinking that monkeys don't understand arithmetic, and the total amount of acorns per day is 7 acorns.We think monkeys are stupid, but in fact they are very smart. The difference between "turning and turning" and "turning and turning" is that there is uncertainty from day to night.For example, the person may be broke in the middle of the day.Under uncertainty, it is safer and better for the monkeys to choose "turning four and turning three" than "turning and turning".The essence of the productivity revolution is the event of "heaven collapse" and "star shift" with uncertainty. It is an unexpected event beyond imagination. It is expressed in a vivid language, that is, "black swan event".
American securities trader Taleb believes in his best-selling book "Black Swan" that black swan events are unpredictable and major events beyond any imagination.It happens rarely, but when it does, it has great impact.He gave a typical example: Europeans have long believed that swans are all white. After the discovery of black swans in Australia, the belief that "swans are all white" was completely shaken.An example of a black swan event is the "9.11" terrorist attack in the United States. On the morning of September 11, 2001, terrorists hijacked two planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in New York, USA, killing more than 2,752 people.At the beginning, CNN reported that a small plane happened to crash into the World Trade Center. No one could have imagined that it was a large commercial airliner.Later, in the "September 11" Incident Investigation Report of the US Congress, it was specifically proposed to enhance imagination. The tsunami that occurred in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 killed or disappeared more than 100,000 people.However, there has never been a large-scale tsunami in the Indian Ocean in the past few years. For people in the surrounding areas of the Indian Ocean, a tsunami is an unimaginable black swan event.
In the field of finance, the Black-Scholes option pricing model is widely used, and the designers of the model, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, won the Nobel Prize in Economics for this.The basis of this model is that changes in asset prices always satisfy a normal distribution.In other words, extreme return situations are very rare, and the implicit assumption is that the probability of asset liquidity loss is negligible.However, in August 1998, when Russia announced a delay in repaying its foreign debts, the Russian government bonds could not be cashed out.The US long-term capital management company that applied this model has liquidity difficulties, and the normal distribution is no longer applicable.
In 2007, after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, some securitized bonds such as collateralized debt obligations (CDO) became "financial landmines", blowing out a "big hole" in the asset side of financial institutions' balance sheets.Under the cash flow pressure of high financial leverage, financial institutions can only sell assets to repay debts within the time limit stipulated by the debt structure, so another black swan event appeared.Due to the difficulty in assessing the liquidity of OTC instruments and the risk of counterparties, financial panic and mutual mistrust have resulted. The trading market for some assets has suddenly disappeared, and there has been unprecedented difficulty in realizing them. If they cannot be sold, they will lead to bankruptcy. In 2008, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, died not because of stepping on a "financial landmine", but because of a black swan event such as the disappearance of the market.In world financial markets, it is unheard of for markets to disappear.Even in the US overnight lending market, the one-day ultra-short-term interest rate has risen sharply, forcing the Fed to provide unlimited short-term liquidity.
Economics has noted the existence of a special but fundamental technology, the general-purpose technology.General-purpose technology is different from general technology. It has extensive room for improvement and market applications. There are multiple evolutionary technology paths, and it is complementary to other technologies.There will be a revolution in general-purpose technology, bringing about a revolution in productivity.For example, ironmaking is a general-purpose technology, and its appearance and application of iron brought mankind into the Iron Age; steam engines and electric motors are general-purpose technologies, and they brought mankind into the era of industrial economy; the birth of large-scale integration in 1971 Circuit chips and, later, the Internet were also general-purpose technologies that propelled humanity into the information age.In a nutshell, the productivity revolution is an effective supply revolution and a leap forward in the ability of human beings to create wealth. Its core symbol is the revolution of general-purpose technology and its wide application.
However, the occurrence of the general-purpose technological revolution is highly uncertain, and it must come from outside the existing technology, which is an unexpected black swan event.In "The Wealth of Nations" published in 1776, Adam Smith chose "the story of making needles", and saw the benefits of division of labor from the production process of making needles, instead of choosing the spinning jenny that had been invented at that time, he It is impossible to foresee which technology has revolutionary economic significance.Taleb said in the book "Black Swan", "When I ask people to name the three new technologies that have the greatest impact on the world today, they usually say computers, the Internet, and lasers. These three technologies were discovered when they were discovered. Unplanned, unexpected, the greater the impact of a black swan phenomenon, the harder it is for us to predict."
Chris Freeman, founder and leader of the Science and Technology Policy Research Institute (SPRU) at the University of Sussex, collaborated with the famous long-wave theorist Francisco Lusan in the book "Time Like an Arrow: From the Industrial Revolution to the Information Revolution", with Profound experience of the historical evolution of human economy and profound scientific and technological viewpoints.They believe that each "Kondratieff long wave" is an organic whole composed of five subsystems: technology, science, economy, politics and culture, and new technology clusters that appear at regular intervals are the fundamental driving force for social evolution and economic growth , while other subsystems provide a complete support structure for each new technology cluster.The world economy has experienced 5 Kondratieff long waves from its birth to the present.The first Kondratiev long wave was the British Industrial Revolution: the age of cotton, iron and water power; the second Kondratiev long wave was the age of railways, steam engines and mechanization; the third Kondratiev long wave was steel, The era of heavy industry and electrification; the fourth Kondratieff long wave is the Great Depression and the era of oil, automobiles, motorization and mass production; the fifth Kondratiev long wave is information and communication technology.
Chris Freeman and Francisco Lusan's long-wave classification is a bit too detailed. Basically, from textile mills to petrochemical industries can be classified as industrial economics, which is an improvement of productivity, without a revolutionary difference.Meanwhile, Kondratieff's long wave is generally 50 years.However, due to the faster and faster scientific revolution and the faster technological revolution, especially the general-purpose technological revolution, the emergence of the productivity revolution has broken the statistical regularity of Kondratieff's long wave.The time between each productivity revolution is getting shorter and black swan events are hitting the world more and more frequently.Britain was the first to enter the industrial economy in the 1920s, while the United States was the first to embark on the road of information economy in the 1970s.We have now crossed the threshold of the biotech economy.Nanomaterials could spark a productivity revolution in the post-biotech economy.The strange phenomena and laws exhibited by matter at the nanoscale will completely change the world, bringing unimaginable development space to the fields of materials and biology.The era when human beings use nano-"steel wires" composed of carbon nanotubes to build a "ladder" to the moon may not be far away.In the near future, Archimedes' famous saying "Give me a lever and a fulcrum, and I can pry the earth up!" Perhaps an infinitely extending lever made of carbon nanotubes can be used to pry the earth.
The productivity revolution is another process of "boiling frogs" for any economy.We all know that if you throw a frog directly into boiling water, the frog will jump out almost unscathed; but if you put the frog in a pot filled with cold water, Rising slowly, the frog is not sensitive to the increase in temperature at all, and will not notice what is happening. When the temperature of the water exceeds the physiological limit that the frog can bear, it will feel uncomfortable.At this time, the escape instinct endowed by billions of years of biological evolution to the frog disappeared, and he couldn't jump out even if he wanted to jump, so he chose to be cooked in comfort and confusion.Frogs are like this, so why not the economic system?This story shows that when the productivity revolution comes, if an economy does not have a mechanism to adapt to efficiency, it will not be able to seize investment opportunities and produce emerging industries. Just like a frog, it will not respond to the seemingly slowly changing environment. Locked in traditional industries, it was too late to reform the economic system in the end, and the economy fell into stagnation.
Alvin Toffler criticizes the "infallibilityists" in economics in The Revolution of Wealth."Brent Moulton, an official with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (a government agency that uses increasingly precise means of measuring variables that are less and less significant) told us: 'The economy is business as usual.' This illusion, however, falls apart when we turn our gaze from everyday principles to deeper principles, for it is on this deeper principle that we find the most convincing evidence: The economy isn't 'business as usual.' In fact, the entire fabric of wealth creation today is crumbling, suggesting that much bigger change is on the horizon." Toffler's imagination and insight are admirable, but he doesn't know how to shake the wealth edifice The fundamental force is the productivity revolution. "I don't know the true face of Lushan Mountain, but I just live in it." The productivity revolution is not easy to detect, and it often comes from outside the existing economic sectors and beyond the existing knowledge field of people.For example, when Adam Smith published "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776, he did not realize the coming industrial age. It was not until historians discovered that all economic indicators had jumped sharply that they rediscovered rather than predicted the industrial age. The revolution, in the course of the revolution that turned the economy upside down, did not appreciate the great beauty that Kant called it, and it will inevitably leave a lot of regrets.
Therefore, the productivity revolution is an uninvited guest from an unfamiliar field, launching a quiet revolution, "moistening things silently", and its existence was only discovered after the fact.Any economy is under the eternal threat of a productivity revolution, and if you are not careful, you will be "boiled frogs".I borrowed Tocqueville's words to describe the productivity revolution: "Everyone saw it, but they saw it differently. Some believed that it was a new phenomenon, accidental, and hopeful that it could be stopped; while others concluded that it was a new phenomenon. an irresistible revolution, because they feel that it is the most frequent, oldest, and longest-lasting phenomenon known in history."
In 1997, Ali De Ges, a management scientist who has worked for the Anglo-Dutch Shell oil group for a long time, made a pioneering study on the longevity of enterprises and wrote the book "Longevity Company", which had a major impact on the world.De Heus found that companies have a high mortality rate: in Europe and Japan, the average life cycle of companies is 12.5 years; Merged or split into different small businesses.De Heus also observed that long-lived companies also exist: in Europe, North America and Japan, there are 30 companies with a life span of more than 100 years, including DuPont, Glaxo, Kodak, Mitsui, Sumitomo and Siemens, etc., which may be known. The Swedish company Stora with the longest history has existed for more than 700 years.De Heus believes that enterprises must transform into learning organizations before they can become longevity companies.
De Gess described Stola's ability to adapt to the environment. This "longevity company" has experienced the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Industrial Revolution and the two world wars in the 20th century. In the process of changing times and environments, Stola The company is constantly adapting and changing its main business-from copper mining to forestry, to iron and hydropower, and finally paper, pulp and chemical products, Stola has always adapted to this ever-changing world.However, it is extremely ironic that in the second year after de Heus announced that Stora was the world's longest-lived company, the company merged with Finland's EnsoOy to form Stora Enso (Stora Enso), Effectively pronounced the death of the world's longest-lived company.De Heus is also bullish on Sumitomo, a Japanese company founded in 1590.Sumitomo Corporation has also gone through a long period of time. It has carried out two large-scale restructurings in 2007 and 2009. How to survive the current world financial crisis and the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy is a test for this longevity company.
According to the US "Fortune" magazine, about 62% of American companies have a life expectancy of less than 5 years, the average life expectancy of small and medium-sized enterprises is less than 7 years, the average life expectancy of a general multinational company is 10-12 years, and the average life expectancy of the world's top 500 companies is 40-40 years. In 42 years, the average life span of the top 100 companies was 30 years, and only 2% of the companies survived for 50 years.In Japan, however, the average life expectancy of a company is 30 years, and there is only one company that consistently ranks among the top 100 companies.The American auto industry giant, General Motors, filed for bankruptcy protection in 2009 after a century, and the Dow Jones industrial stock index has ruthlessly kicked it out of the index stocks.Century General has fallen into such a situation!
The lifespan of Chinese companies is surprisingly short. Two data were released at the 2003 Managers World Annual Conference: "The average life expectancy of Chinese enterprises is about 8 years, and the average life expectancy of small and medium-sized enterprises is only 2.9 years." In 2005, the "China Private Enterprise Development Report" compiled by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce The Blue Book observes the fact that 150,000 private enterprises are born in China every year, and more than 100,000 die every year. 60% of private enterprises go bankrupt within 5 years, and 85% of private enterprises die within 10 years. The average life expectancy is only 2.9 years.
In fact, De Geus did not see that the most fundamental reason for the short life of an enterprise is not the enterprise itself, but the fate of the industry in which the enterprise is located, and what determines the fate of the industry is not inside the industry, but outside the industry.The speed of the scientific revolution has greatly accelerated, and the speed of the technological revolution has also greatly accelerated, causing the lifespan of industries to become shorter and shorter.People pay attention to the longevity of enterprises, but there is still a lack of systematic research on the longevity of industries.Toffler's timetable is: the typewriter invented in 1714 took 150 years to be widely used, the harvester invented in 1836 took 100 years to be popularized, and the vacuum cleaner and refrigerator invented around 1920 were only used It has been popularized all over the world in 34 years.This dizzying pace of change is what Toffler calls a revolution.The automobile replaced the horse-drawn carriage as the primary mode of transportation in the United States, in just 20 years.Ford's market share increased from 9% in 1908 to 60% in 1921, and by 1923, almost every American family owned a Ford.
The process of steel replacing iron was also completed very quickly; the railway industry, once the most exciting industry in the American industrial revolution, is now in decline; In addition to the decline in growth rate and the rise of the software industry, 2009 was even more difficult.In consumer electronics, new products are launched at an astonishing speed, and inventory has become one of the risks of a company, because the goods may be ruthlessly eliminated before they are sold out.Pagers were replaced by mobile phones, and the paging industry suddenly died; the VCD industry was replaced by DVD when it was just emerging; the MP3 manufacturing industry began to rise in 2000, and was replaced by MP4 with video functions in 2005.In recent years, film cameras have been rapidly replaced by digital cameras, and 3G mobile phones are also rapidly replacing the current dazzling variety of mobile phones.Electric vehicles are a breakthrough technology that may pose a threat to gasoline vehicles within 10 years. In the future, there may be no gas stations, only charging stations.The traditional retail industry is facing the challenge of e-commerce, because the business-to-customer business model (B2C) in the Internet has gradually matured.Wal-Mart, which has repeatedly ranked first in the world's top 500 companies, is excellent in informatization and has set up its global procurement center in Shenzhen, but now it has to face the challenges of Amazon in the United States and Alibaba in China.
The "Standard Industry Classification (SIC)" system formulated by the US Census Bureau in 1987 was replaced by the "North American Industry Classification Standard (NAICS)" system in 1997, adding a number of new industries that were previously unimaginable. In 1997, the classification system classified the information industry as an independent industrial sector, which means that the information industry, which has a profound impact on today's society, was formally defined for the first time in terms of statistical classification. The SIC system was designed when the U.S. economy was dominated by manufacturing at that time, and could not reflect the accelerated growth trend of the information service industry. In 2002, the NAICS system greatly increased the number of industries, from 1,004 industries in the SIC system to 1,170 industries.The new system defines more than 350 new industries that were previously unheard of, including 250 new service industries that are completely separated from the previous service sectors.
In the 2002 version of the NAICS system, the information industry is specifically divided into publishing industry (excluding the Internet), film and recording industry, broadcasting (excluding the Internet), Internet publishing and broadcasting, communications, Internet service providers and website search portals and 7 categories including data processing and other information services. The 2002 version of the NAICS system also revised the economic connotation and scope of more than 330 industries.In the NAICS system, of the 1170 total industries defined, only 473 still represent the manufacturing industry in statistical names, accounting for about 40%, while 60% of the industries are basically brand new.From the introduction of the SIC system in 1987 to the introduction of the comprehensively updated NAICS system in 2002, there was only an interval of 15 years.From the 2002 version of the NAICS system to the 2007 NAICS system, the economic content of 46 industries has changed.The US Census Service is beginning preparations for the 2012 update of the NAICS system.It can be foreseen that the 2012 NAICS system will have major changes compared with the 2002 NAICS system.
As technological revolutions erupt more and more frequently, the life span of industries is getting shorter and shorter, which brings unprecedented challenges to enterprise technology management. In 1997, Christensen proposed the concept of "destructive technology" in the book "The Innovator's Dilemma", which is the revolutionary technology referred to in this book.According to Christensen, companies cannot maintain their leading positions in their respective industries in the face of certain types of market and technological changes.Christensen pointed out that even the best-run companies, despite their keen attention to customer needs and continuous investment in developing new technologies, can be defeated by new industries.
Intel is a company with continuous innovation capabilities. From the 1980s to the present, it has maintained its position as the only central processing unit (CPU) company with a monopoly in the world.Grove, one of the founders and former chairman of Intel, was named the "Man of the Year" by Time Magazine in the United States in 1997. He is a talented high-tech enterprise leader. In 2006, he was interviewed by "Harvard Business Review". His answer reflected a leader of a high-tech enterprise's worries about the decline of the industry and his sobriety in the face of difficulties. The editor of "Harvard Business Review" asked: "You once said that the high-tech industry, including Intel, is going through a 'valley of death'. Where is Intel now?" Grove has a profound insight into the hardware of computers. Facing the revolution, he replied: "The growth of the previous generation was supported by the structural transformation of the computing industry from the mainframe of centralized computing to the personal computer of distributed computing. This determines the structure of the entire industry and determines the growth opportunities. Opportunities for software packages were decided. But the landscape is different. The Internet is redefining software, redefining computing and communication and how they interact. I still don't understand the new framework, and I don't think anyone really does. But there are aspects It's already clear. It's already clear that this is communication-based, not computing-based. Computing will be subordinated to communication. Also, an increasing proportion of all intellectual property will be created in digital form, so in The proportion of storage and transmission in digital form will also increase.” The editor of Harvard Business Review went on to ask: “Transitioning from one business model to another is a daunting task for leaders, especially in a constantly changing world. In the technology industry, how do you solve this problem?" Grove frankly admitted that Intel was not very sure about crossing the "valley of death", he said: "None of us know what lies ahead, and neither do I." No idea, although I have some feelings. Decisions don't wait for others. Investment decisions and personal decisions can't wait until the situation is clear. Make decisions when you have to. Don't get too frustrated with the process because your The profession has to take on that responsibility. You can’t motivate people well if you’re feeling down yourself. So you have to keep your morale high even if you don’t know what you’re doing.” It should be said that Grove had a vision.The technological revolution or the "destructive technology" that Christensen said must not come from the hardware, but may come from the communication industry, that is, "cloud computing", and the central processing business does not need to be centralized on a chip. processed, but through the Internet of ordered connections.
No wonder management guru Peter Drucker exclaimed that the lifespan of enterprises is getting shorter and shorter, while the lifespan of people is getting longer and longer. As a result, people's lifespan far exceeds the lifespan of enterprises and organizations, and career change has become an inevitable trend.
Productivity is the ability of the world economy to create wealth.In The National System of Political Economy, List distinguishes between wealth itself and the ability to create wealth.He said: "The cause of wealth is quite different from wealth itself. A man may possess wealth, and that is exchange value; but if he does not have that productive force, producing more value than he consumes, he will grow poorer and poorer. A man may He is very poor; but if he possesses that productive force, which can produce more valuable products than he consumes, he will be rich. It can be seen that the productive force that produces wealth is infinitely more important than wealth itself; it not only Wealth that has been and has been increased can be secured, and wealth that has disappeared can be compensated."
The productivity revolution is the "economy of imagination".The so-called "imaginative economy" means that it is impossible to deduce a new economic model from the existing economic model through logical reasoning, and the new economic model produced through the productivity revolution must come from outside the existing economy.More specifically, the power to change an industry often comes from outside the industry and cannot be deduced from within the industry. Therefore, it is necessary to create a vision of industrial development through imagination, that is, vision, which constitutes an "imagination economy". In 1969, Drucker proposed in "The Age of Discontinuity" that the new industries formed by the technological explosion are one of the main sources of discontinuity.When optical fiber was invented, it was used to transmit images. No one thought that it would be used for communication transmission. Nowadays, most of the transoceanic communication uses optical cables instead of electric cables.It is the Internet, not the media itself, that transforms print media into three-dimensional media.What is about to cause a devastating blow to the existing lighting industry does not come from the fluorescent lamp or incandescent lamp industry itself, but from light-emitting diodes (LEDs).Light-emitting diodes can save energy by 90% compared with current fluorescent lamps, and their lifespan is more than 10 times longer.Drucker said meaningfully, "Science and technology is no longer as it was in the 19th century. It is composed of some irrelevant systems that support their own independent disciplines. Today's science and technology are interconnected and in the middle of chaos. Medium. Industry change is bound to come from outside, yet we don’t know anything about outside the industry.”In this sense, we cannot deduce the future industrial form, because the power to change the industry may come from other industries that we do not know at all.
The form and amount of wealth that the new economic model may create far exceeds imagination. After 1820, the emergence of industry was a black swan event for human society. In 1758, François Quesnay put forward the "Pure Product Theory" in "Economic Table".He believes that industry can only change the form of value, but cannot increase the quantity of value, and only agriculture can increase wealth.Quesnay's mistake was that he could not imagine that industry was also valuable, let alone the birth of the service industry.Quesnay was the founder of the French Physiocratic School, which to a certain extent influenced the emergence of the French Industrial Revolution.
Human needs are unlimited both in terms of quantity and content, and the progress and revolution of productivity have created the possibility of unlimited supply to meet human needs.Supply can create demand, and it can also awaken demand.Any product or service that is useful to humans is valuable and is an "imagination economy".Economic growth is an "imaginative economy" in which emerging industries continue to emerge.After the Second World War, the industrial structure of the United States underwent major changes: the growth of traditional industries represented by automobiles, chemicals, petroleum, and machinery slowed down, while other new industries such as network technology, bioengineering, and education and medical care rose rapidly.The information industry became the largest industry in the economy in the 1990s, contributing 25% to economic growth.The National Bureau of Statistics of China has also separated the information industry from the tertiary industry and included it in the statistics of special industries.In the past, people thought that only commodities were the main body of international trade, and long-distance trade could not be carried out in the service industry.However, with the emergence of the Internet and broadband, service outsourcing has sprung up. For example, American users make customer service calls at home, but the operator is far away in India. This was unimaginable in the 1990s.Of course, thinking that the tertiary industry is the final industrial division of human society will commit the "Quesnay error".In the 22nd century, the statistics of the world economy must have countless industries that we cannot imagine today.
Marshall, the master of economics, believes that "an economist needs to have three major intelligences: perception, imagination and reasoning. Among them, he needs the imagination most, so that he can explore the insignificance of visible events, that is, the things that lie below the surface. The indistinctness of those causes from the visible causes, that is, the effects that lie beneath the surface".Marshall, who spent his 78th birthday at Cambridge University, enjoying the world's admiration, said he was not so eager for an afterlife.Later Keynes explained Marshall's meaning vividly, "Mrs. Marshall asked Marshall if he would like to come to the world again after a certain period of time (say, 100 years later) to see what is going on. He replied, Even if he wanted to, it was pure curiosity. My focus now has turned increasingly to the millions of celestial bodies that may have reached a high level of civilization before the earth became habitable, and the sun cooling, the earth is no longer suitable millions of celestial bodies that may reach a similar degree of development when inhabited."Marshall actually imagined the migration of humans to other planets as a whole, and at that time, interstellar tourism was a big industry.Flying in the vast space, how to successfully avoid the "black hole" and stay away from the "supernova" explosion has become the biggest challenge.
An unacceptable social phenomenon has emerged and will become the mainstream, impacting human society: aging population, younger industries and short-lived enterprises.The age of the economically active population in the current United Nations statistics is 15 to 64 years old, and the working life of a person is 50 years. Assuming that the average life expectancy of an enterprise is 7 years, then in a person's lifetime, he needs to change jobs an average of 7 times!
In 1930, when the world was in the Great Depression, Keynes said: "Our thoughts, habits and prejudices have not kept up with the pace of material progress. The two form a sharp contrast. The surrounding environment changes far faster than our own changes. The train of the times is moving too fast, and we are staggering in the carriage, and if we don’t squeeze in quickly, we will be thrown off.” In 1970, Toffler published “Future Shock”, predicting the impact that the information age will bring to people. troubled.Toffler believes that the deep psychological structure formed by human beings in the long-term evolution cannot be changed in a short period of time, and the innovation rate that can be tolerated is lower than the environmental change rate induced by human innovation activities, which will eventually lead to a total The crisis, which is the "future shock", will be "destined to be destroyed by a huge transformational collapse".
I believe that humans in general have an amazing ability to adapt to the environment in which they live. "Future Shock" won't be a fatal blow.Nevertheless, individual human beings respond differently to the productivity revolution, and many people will be ruthlessly eliminated by the changing environment. In 2003, real estate across the United States began to soar.At that time, housing prices in Washington were lower than those in the eastern and western United States, but higher than those in the central and southern United States.A real estate agent told me a thought-provoking situation. He found that when people with the same family income and educational background moved to Washington, there would be three different reactions: one kind of people made a decision to buy a house within a few days; Buying a house after months of painful contemplation; the kind of person who thinks DC is expensive, can't accept that fact, and will never buy a house.At the same time, prices are still rising.The only constant in the world is change itself.
Dr. Spencer Johnson, an American psychologist, noticed that as human beings entered the information age from the industrial age, many people were at a loss for the huge changes that were happening before them, so he wrote the international bestseller "Who Moved My Cheese".In this booklet, he fictionalizes two dwarves and two little mice who live on cheese.Suddenly one day, the cheese disappeared.They responded differently to the sudden change, with two small mice responding better than two dwarfs.Although this story is concise and vivid, it is fictional after all.What I quote below is a story with a real background.
Romance novels written before and after the American Civil War (1861-1865) also provided vivid and insightful descriptions of people's adaptation to change.On the eve of the American Civil War, the manufacturing industry was concentrated in the north, and the southern economy was mainly cotton planting, which provided raw materials for the "world factory" Britain.The North of the United States relied on the strength of the Industrial Revolution to defeat the South, whose economy was based on slavery agriculture.After the Civil War ended, the United States began the industrial revolution across the country, and the economic environment of the South after the defeat had undergone fundamental changes.The author lives in Atlanta in the south of the United States. She has a good understanding of the historical changes in the South of the United States after the war. It took another 10 years to complete this classic novel. It should be said that the fate of the characters in her works is authentic under the great changes of the times.
I roughly divide the important characters in the novel into three categories: the first category is the visionary hero Brad.From the very beginning, he foresaw that the industrialized north would inevitably defeat the agricultural-based south, so he did a lot of arms business and made a lot of money, even though he still joined the southern army before the defeat of the south; the second type is the learning heroine Scarlett Scarlett. .Scarlett Scarlett did not know that the South was bound to be defeated. After the defeat in the South and the bankruptcy of her own plantation, she did not despair, but admitted the reality and immediately started to operate the factory; the third category is the tragic Ashley.Ashley is a southern nobleman. At first, he never thought that the South would be defeated. He lived proudly in his own world. After the defeat of the South, Ashley's world disappeared.Scarlett Scarlett sympathized with Ashley and offered him the opportunity to work in her own factory.But Ashley does not have the ability to learn to own a new world. His pain is huge and long. Although he is still alive, he is still dead, which is a typical personal tragedy.The following excerpt from the novel is a dialogue between the hero and heroine, which vividly describes Ashley's pain.
(The heroine Scarlett Scarlett asks the hero Rhett) "Why do you hate Ashley so much? I think you must be jealous of him." As soon as she said that, she wanted to bite her tongue off, because Rhett laughed up to the sky, making her embarrassed , flushed.
"Not only are you dishonest, but you're also very egotistical," he said. "You think you can go on being the most beautiful woman in the district forever, don't you? You think you're always a pretty little girl, and there's no man who doesn't love it."
"No!" she said angrily. "But I just don't understand why you hate Ashley so much. That's the only reason I can think of."
"Think again, goblin. It's not the right reason. As for my hating on Ashley--I neither like him nor hate him. In fact, I have nothing but pity for him and his kind."
"mercy?"
“是的，还加一点鄙视。你现在可以像火鸡那样叫唤，你可以告诉我像我这样的流氓，1000个顶不上他一个，怎么竟敢如此狂妄，竟然对他表示怜悯或鄙视呢。等你发完了火，我再向你说明我的意思，如果你有兴趣的话。”
"Well, I'm not interested."
“我还是告诉你吧，因为我不忍心让你继续做你的美梦，以为我妒忌他。我怜悯他，是因为他早就应该死了，而他没有死。我鄙视他，是因他的世界已经完了，而他不知如何是好。”
郝思嘉感到他这些话有点耳熟。She vaguely remembered hearing similar words, but couldn't remember when or where she heard them.She was in a fit of rage, so she didn't think much of it. "Are he, and Hugh Elsing, and Dr. Meade, happy? Are they happier than my father, or your father?"
“唉。也许他们没有感到幸福。因为他们都失去了自己的钱财。”
白瑞德接着说出一段经典的话：“不是因为失去了钱财，我的宝贝儿。我告诉你吧，是因为失去了他们的世界——他们从小就生活在里面的那个世界。他们如今好像鱼离开了水，猫长了翅儿。他们受的教育要求他们成为某一种人，做某一种事，占有某一种地位。李将军一到阿波马托克斯，那种人，那种事，那种地位就都一扫而光了。郝思嘉呀，瞧你那副傻样子！你想，现在的艾希礼，家没有了，农场也因交税的事而被没收了。至于文雅的绅士，现在一分钱能买20个。在这种情况下，艾希礼·威尔克斯能干什么呢？他是能用脑子，还是能用手干活呢？我敢打赌，自从让他经管木材厂以来你的钱是越赔越多了。”
"wrong!"
“太对了！哪个星期天晚上你有空，给我看看你的账本好吗？”
"To hell with you, and it doesn't have to wait until you're free. You can go, as you please."
“像他们这样的人是值得帮助的，而艾希礼·威尔克斯……呸！在我们这样一个天翻地覆的世界里，他这样的人是无用的，是没有价值的。每逢这个世界底儿朝天的时候，首先消失的就是他这样的人，怎么不会这样呢？他们没有资格继续生存下去，因为他们不斗争——也不知道怎样斗争。天翻地覆，这不是第一次，也不是最后一次。过去发生过，以后还会发生。一旦发生天翻地覆的大事变，个人的一切全都失去，人人平等，然后白手起家，大家都重新开始。所谓白手起家，就是说除了脑子好使手有劲之外，别的什么也没有。但有些人，比如艾希礼，脑子既不好使，手也没有劲，或者说，虽然脑子好使手有劲，却顾虑重重，不敢加以利用，就这样，他们沉了底，他们也应该沉底，这是自然规律，除掉这样的人，世界会更美好，但总有少数坚强的人能够挺过来，过些时候，他们就恢复到大事变之前的状况。”
可惜，在生产力革命频繁爆发的今天，艾希礼的悲剧还在许多人身上反复重演。的确，生产力革命爆发的时间越来越频繁，产业的寿命也越来越难以持久，企业的寿命更是这样。所以，在一个人的一生中可能会出现多次职业大转换，现有的知识和技能都可能完全过时，这需要人们的观念跟上环境变化的脚步，永远保持创业精神，积极地终身学习，避免心理结构的危机，否则“艾希礼的悲剧”将反复上演。
农业革命在古巴比伦、古埃及、古印度和中国四大文明古国相互独立地发生，农业革命随后缓慢向世界的其他地区扩散和蔓延。公元前7000年左右，中国有了最原始的农业，在土地上种植水稻、粟等粮食作物，饲养家禽，每年有丰收的喜悦。相传，神农炎帝发明了冶陶业，使人们能制造各式各样的生活用具。轩辕黄帝和炎帝对技术的钻研预示了中华民族自诞生之日起就擅长技术改进。《淮南子·修务训》说神农炎帝“尝百草之滋味，水泉之甘苦，令民知所辟就，当此之时，一日而遇七十毒”。《礼记·礼运》生动记载了约5000年前黄帝和炎帝时代中国祖先从穴居到自建房屋，从吃生食到吃熟食，从穿羽毛兽皮到穿布帛的生活改进过程：“昔者先王未有宫室。冬则居营窟，夏则居橧巢。未有火化，食草木之实、鸟兽之肉，饮其血，茹其毛。未有麻丝，衣其羽皮。后圣有作，然后修火之利。范金合土，以为台榭宫室牖户。以炮，以燔，以亨，以炙，以为醴酪。治其麻丝，以为布帛。”大禹治水，表明中国人祖先开始定居生活，否则，中国古人就去躲避洪水而不必去治水了；大禹“三过其门而不入”，表明家庭已经出现了。约在商周时期，中国进入以农业为主的经济时期，开始有了青铜器，在公元前500年左右开始使用铁器，铁制农具比铜制农具效率高多了，处于华北平原的大量土地首先得到开垦，中原经济总量扩大，中原文化开始崛起。孟子说：“五亩之宅，树之以桑，五十者可以衣帛矣。鸡豚狗彘之畜，勿失其时，七十者可以食肉矣。百亩之田，勿夺其时，数口之家可以无饥矣”，表明当时老百姓“有衣穿、有肉吃和有饭吃”的生活时尚和寿命可以达“七十”了。依靠郑国渠灌溉广大平原和商鞅变法，秦国农业经济获得了大幅度提升，有力支撑了统一六国的军事行动，当时秦国的兵力高达60万，一次用兵至少在半年以上。汉朝后，中国农业主要粮食作物由粟变成了稻米。与此同时，古印度利用印度河和恒河流域的平原条件和湿润的印度洋暖风，种植了水稻、小麦、豆类和棉花，并且织出了棉布，发明了“十进制”，取得了辉煌的农业文明。
被凯恩斯称为“第一个剑桥经济学家”的马尔萨斯，在1798年发表了《人口原理：人口对未来社会进步的影响；兼对戈德文先生、康多塞特先生和其他作者的理论进行评价》，他悲观地指出：在18世纪末的欧洲，食物供给的增长将引起人口的迅猛增长，最后只能是战争、饥荒和瘟疫来抑制人口的增长，这就是著名的“马尔萨斯人口陷阱”。马尔萨斯没有想象到工业革命的爆发，被工业改造的农业可以养活更多的人口。
在1820年之前的几千年内，人类的平均生活水平基本没有变化。谁能料到，1820年后，一个黑天鹅事件发生了，那就是工业革命，在突然之间侵袭农业世界。从此以后，工业经济比农业经济人均创造的附加值更多，财富出现“井喷”现象，一些国家的经济突然从停滞转为高速增长。安格斯·麦迪森在2001年出版的《世界经济：千年展望》一书中指出，在18世纪以前，西方国家人均国内生产总值的年均增长率只有0.05%，照这个增长速度需要1430年人均国内生产总值才能翻一番。1820年以后世界经济在工业革命下出现前所未有的增长，套用美国经济史学家罗斯托的话来说，就是进入“起飞阶段”。如图1-2所示，1820年之后，英国人均收入首先爆炸性跃起，美国紧紧跟随，并在1900年左右超过英国。法国和德国从1850年后也开始追赶英美。日本1870年后表现不凡。300年前，西欧人的平均寿命只有30岁，而如今是75岁以上，日本则是世界上人的预期寿命最长的国家，达到80岁以上。遗憾的是，中国和印度从1820年到1950年对工业革命基本上无动于衷，没有丝毫反应。
工业革命最先开始于英国，1765年珍妮纺纱机的发明是导火索。1780年，每100磅棉花的纺织成本是2.10英镑，1830年竟然下降到0.13英镑；用农业时代的纺织机加工100磅棉花，要耗时5万小时，但用1825年英国的自动纺织机，只需要135小时！这是农业时代无法想象的。
蒸汽机是工业经济的第一个通用目的技术，有广泛的应用空间。蒸汽机的发明人瓦特是一名能工巧匠，在1765年制成了有分离冷凝器的单动式蒸汽机，后来瓦特对它进行了改进，1776年，瓦特把蒸汽机应用于抽水。1807年，美国人富尔顿把瓦特的蒸汽机装在轮船上，造成第一艘商业蒸汽船。1819年，蒸汽轮船开始了第一次跨大西洋航行，帆船制造和运输受到毁灭性打击。1814年，英国人史蒂芬把瓦特的蒸汽机装在火车上。1831年，第一条铁路在英国铺设。管理大师彼得·德鲁克总结道：“铁路是工业革命中至关重要的因素，不仅创造了新经济区域，也迅速改变了'心智'地理，人类有史以来第一次真正拥有移动能力，第一次拓宽了一个平凡人的眼界。”纺织业、采矿业、造纸业、陶瓷业等工业部门，都先后采用蒸汽机作为动力，从而形成了大规模生产，这就是所谓的“蒸汽时代”。
英国率先进行工业革命，成为世界上第一个工业国家。工业革命创造了巨大的生产力，使英国成为“真正近代意义上”的跨洲帝国。1870年，这一革命超出了英国，开始向欧洲大陆蔓延，北美和日本也作出了积极响应；1870年后，美国开始在以电器技术为通用目的技术的新一轮革命的浪潮中崭露头角，显示出超越英国的远大前程。1861年，第一封电报从纽约发出。
1878年，爱迪生发明电灯，在美国发动机的市场份额中，电力发动机从1895年的0上升到1915年的90%以上，对蒸汽发动机进行了革命性替代；1913年，美国人亨利·福特将传送带用在了汽车生产中，发明了流水线，工人只需要负责自己手中的零件装配就行了，相当于亚当·斯密“针的故事”。这样，组装一辆汽车的成本降低了近8倍，提高了效率，制造出了人人都买得起的汽车；1908年，福特汽车的售价是850美元。到1924年，福特汽车的售价已降至300美元，而当时马车的价钱则是400美元一辆。在短短的20年内，马车遭遇了灭顶之灾。不久，汽车已经成为工作、购物和休闲生活不可或缺的必需品，并带来了城市化。从那时起，人类社会就开始演绎2010年上海世博会确定的永恒主题，即“城市让生活更美好”。
在距工业革命爆发的1820年还不算太久远的1971年，又一个黑天鹅事件再次侵袭地球。1971年英特尔公司4004芯片的发明，标志着信息革命的开始。而此时，IBM总裁在1947年的预言“世界只需要几台计算机”仍言犹在耳。1972年夏天，从哈佛大学退学的比尔·盖茨对英特尔公司推出的微处理器芯片很感兴趣，他的想象力引导了他对新产业的远见：“让每张书桌上都有电脑，让每个家庭都有电脑。”
彼得·德鲁克在1969年就预言将有一种新的类型的劳动者出现——知识员工，他指出，世界正处于巨大的转变之中，我们从一个以资本、土地和劳动力为基础的社会走向一个以知识为主要资源和以组织为关键结构的社会，知识员工的职业将由自己所学的知识来决定，不再依靠出卖体力来养家糊口。托马斯·弗里德曼也惊呼：“在我们睡大觉的时候，世界变了……”世界真的在悄悄地发生着变化，变得似乎熟悉，又不大看得懂，充满了与过去完全不同的机会与挑战。这一切似乎来得很突然。被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一的大前研一在《看不见的新大陆》这本书里提出了一个观点，现在出现了一个新大陆，这个新的大陆是大家看不见的，但是所有人都不能逃过它的影响，大家都能感觉到它的存在。无论个人还是机构，都需要适应“看不见的新大陆”，并从中找到成功机会。
20世纪70年代，美国和欧洲正处于“滞胀”的无奈境地，但以为经济体都处于这样的增长困境就错了。不能“只见树木，不见森林”。早在1971年，美国加利福尼亚州就率先出现了新经济。如图1-3所示，加州人均收入增长从1971年起明显增速，与美国整体经济当时出现的“滞胀”情况形成鲜明对比，其增长速度明显高于工业经济时代。加州经济结构从1971年以来进一步向信息化方向发展，信息服务业已经成为对经济增长贡献最大的部门，制造业呈现出进一步下降的趋势，制造业劳动力占非农劳动力比例不断下降，从1990年的15%下降到2008年的10%。因此，加州经济的新经济特征表现得最为突出，由此也说明美国各州经济发展的不平衡。
2008年，加利福尼亚州经济规模达到1.56万亿美元，人均GDP达46000美元。《财富》杂志评选出的美国500强企业中，加州独占鳌头，其中包括著名的英特尔、思科、甲骨文、谷歌及雅虎等。在风险投资领域，加州的硅谷便吸引了全美一半左右的高科技风险投资。如图1-4所示，加州制造业雇用劳动力在总体上处于衰退当中。信息产业雇用人数从1990年到2001年持续上升，但2001年互联网泡沫破裂后，就持平了。可以看到，制造业破坏的就业机会并没有被信息产业创造的就业机会弥补，美国经济存在结构性失业，这可以解释为什么美国失业率一直较高的原因。
美国信息产业分为信息服务（包括软件）、通信和计算机硬件三个子产业，信息服务在整个信息产业中越来越占主体，表明信息产业从以硬件为主导向以服务为主导的方向转变。1990年，IBM既是一个硬件制造商，同时还占有UNIX操作系统市场的半壁以上江山。英特尔公司推出的芯片越来越标准化，让IBM感到了个人电脑业会过度竞争。IBM公司敏锐地把握了这个趋势，果断放弃硬件。“谁说大象不能跳舞？”到2001年左右，IBM已经成功转型为侧重于信息服务和咨询的公司了，并把IBM的个人电脑业务出售给了当时正想国际化的中国联想集团。
信息革命由硬件产业发展带动。20世纪70年代和80年代个人电脑兴起的时候，几家公司包揽了所有产业链的环节。苹果电脑公司创始人斯蒂夫·乔布斯20岁时就开始创业，坚持“对于特定用户群体来说，时尚和易用性与实用同样重要”的理念，使苹果电脑在10年间从一家只有两个小伙子的车库公司扩展成了一家国际大公司。1983年，第一台图形界面的个人电脑Lisa面世，苹果微机使个人电脑成为一个新产业。但是，乔布斯后来被迫离开苹果公司，苹果公司选择了与IBM个人计算机不兼容的技术路线，个人电脑行业的领袖迅速地被边缘化了。1996年乔布斯以临时首席执行官的身份重返苹果公司，上演了“王者归来”，推出iPod和iTunes横扫全球，苹果电脑成功复兴。乔布斯则是“身任天下之重”，其身体状况甚至会轻易影响到苹果公司的股价。
如图1-5所示，计算机芯片的价格迅速下降，遵循著名的“摩尔定律”。这条定律曾是个人电脑行业的金科玉律，即中央处理器的速度会每18个月翻一番。1985年，英特尔公司推出386中央处理器，使个人电脑具有了同时处理多重任务的能力，有替代IBM大型操作系统UNIX的潜力；1989年英特尔公司推出了486；1993年推出奔腾处理器。由于技术路线发展的极限，2009年后摩尔定律将不再适用，中央处理器将被理论上具有无限处理速度的“云计算”取代。
20世纪70年代，美国五角大楼的某个研究单位的科学家为了军事指挥方便而设计出Arpanet，20世纪90年代转为民用，这就是今天的互联网前身。1994年，Mosaic浏览器及World Wide Web(WWW)出现，1995年网景公司上市，令互联网开始走入寻常百姓家。一些新的商业模式应运而生，比如维基经济。唐·泰普斯科特和安东尼·威廉姆斯在《维基经济学》中援引在互联网上广为流行的维基软件（wiki），将由此衍生的“投入和共同创造”的经济命名为“维基经济（Wikinomics）”。1991年，芬兰人李纳斯·托瓦尔兹随手编写了一个名为Linux的操作系统软件，并公开了自己的软件源代码，允许成千上万的匿名程序员检视自己的系统，受到计算机专业人士的极大欢迎。Linux由一种非正式的“开发共同体”管理，并利用成千上万的志愿编程员的成果。由于Linux是免费的，以及改变的灵活性大，目前成为与Windows竞争的强有力对手。
消费者在面对无限的选择时，一套崭新的长尾商业模式也跟着崛起。克里斯·安德森在一书中说，在营销领域长期占统治地位的“二八定律”被颠覆了，公司的利润不再依赖传统的20%的重要客户产生80%的利润，而是原先被忽视的那80%的小客户。互联网的出现使得原先80%客户产生的利润大大超过20%。举例来说，一家大型书店通常可摆放10万本书，但亚马逊网络书店的图书销售额中，有1/4来自这10万本书排名以后的书籍，并且这些冷门书籍的销售比例正以高速成长，预计未来可占整体书市的30%以上。
在现货供应市场上，B2B商业模式最先在美国提出和尝试，但不成功。后来，阿里巴巴把B2B现货供应商务模式在中国做成功了。中国互联网的商业模式以引入为主，例如新浪、搜狐、网易是模仿雅虎等国外门户网站而诞生的，“众里寻她千百度”的百度的商业模式也是从美国谷歌引入的，唯有阿里巴巴是在中国制造业拥有超乎想象的大量中小企业的土壤上做成的电子商务网站，开创了世界信息经济中一道美丽的中国风景线。在1994年的一次赴美帮助解决商务纠纷的旅行中，杭州外语老师马云“触网”，并立即感到了互联网在中国潜在的巨大商业前景。1995年，马云告别了自己创办的翻译社，创办了第一家企业信息网站“中国黄页”。
马云在推销“中国黄页”时曾被当成骗子，与比尔·盖茨1976年劝导同行为软件付费写的公开信被广为嘲讽一样，似乎都是商业天才必须承受的磨难。1999年，马云以50万元人民币建立阿里巴巴网站。2007年11月6日，阿里巴巴B2B公司在香港挂牌上市。截至2009年6月，阿里巴巴旗下已经拥有阿里巴巴网、淘宝网、支付宝、雅虎中国、阿里软件、口碑网、阿里妈妈，构建了一个强大的为中小企业服务的网络服务系统，而且在C2C和B2C领域迅猛发展，提出超越沃尔玛的雄心壮志。马云提出，要将阿里巴巴做成一个能活102年的企业，所以阿里巴巴很注重贯彻企业文化，在其著名的文化“六脉神剑”中，“拥抱变化”就是一脉神剑。所以，阿里巴巴在2029年中国制造逐渐淡出后能否生存并不重要，重要的是阿里巴巴B2B模式的成功对人类信息经济的里程碑意义。
人类的出现本身就是一场生物革命。尽管黑格尔断言“人类是地球上的匆匆来客”，人类还是按自己的方式改造了世界。比尔·盖茨在他的《未来时速》一书中感叹道：“人类不是最大的动物。我们不是最强壮的，也不是跑得最快的，我们的视力或嗅觉都不是最敏锐的。我们与自然界中许多凶猛动物相比却幸存下来了，这真令人惊奇。我们之所以幸存和昌盛是因为我们的智力。我们的进化填补了认知这个角落。我们学会了如何使用工具、建造房屋、创造农垦、驯化牲口、发展文明和文化、治疗和预防疾病。我们的工具和技术帮助我们塑造了周围的环境。”比尔·盖茨没有想到，人类将塑造包括人类自身的生物世界。
早在1953年，克里克和沃森在剑桥的一个酒吧中想象出DNA双螺旋结构，就揭开了生物技术革命的序幕。生命科学中的遗传基因理论“遗传基础寓于脱氧核糖核酸（DNA）的'双螺旋'结构之中”的发表，激起了探索生物学过程的细胞和分子基础的艰苦的科学尝试，开辟了生物技术的新时代。1973年，DNA重组技术开始崭露头角。随后单体克隆技术不断突破。1999年，英国科学家成功地培育出克隆绵羊“多利”。
生物学技术已经渗透到医学、农业、环保、能源等许多领域，显示出了广阔的前景。生物技术开发出超过200种药品，如干扰素、人体生长激素、胰岛素、乙肝疫苗等，并大量投放市场。基因科学家们正在利用互联网进行国际合作，基因组序列测定与基因结构分析将在医学领域引发革命性发现和应用。与曼哈顿原子弹计划和阿波罗登月计划并称为三大科学计划的人类基因组计划(human genome project！简称HGP)于1990年正式启动，由美国、英国、法国、德国、日本和中国科学家共同参与，旨在为人类基因组精确测序，破译人类遗传信息。生物芯片可能取代硅芯片，计算速度成倍增加；干细胞的研究与应用可能使人活到120岁的天年。
美国纳斯达克股票市场催生孵化了大批高科技企业上市。生物技术产业获得的风险投资已多于信息和工业获得的投资。基因技术公司（Genentech）是全球第一家生物技术公司，成立于1976年！创始人是风险投资家和生物化学家的经典组合，该公司于1980年10月14日公开发行股票，并在纳斯达克上市，是规模和实力仅次于安进公司(Amgen)的世界第二大生物技术公司。
如图1-6所示，从1997到2001年，纳斯达克计算机指数比生物技术指数泡沫大得多，但另一方面，生物工程产业悄悄隐藏在信息技术的身后，积蓄能量，蓄势待发。2008年4月，在美国上市的生物技术公司总市值高达3600亿美元。虽然2008年世界金融危机爆发后生物股缩水，进入阵痛式的调整阶段，但生物技术仍是不可忽视的新兴产业。
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