Chapter 4 preface

Economics is both theory and practice.Adhering to the principle of combining economics with theory and practice is my unchanging pursuit as an economic worker.I have long insisted on economic research, especially the study of the Chinese economy.I went abroad for 10 years, studied in Cambridge, UK for 5 years, and my doctoral thesis was on Chinese economy; I worked in the United States for 5 years, including nearly 1 year in the World Bank and 4 years in the International Monetary Fund.In the past 10 years, I have visited many countries and regions, and have a deep and intuitive understanding of the economic life of various countries in the world.During the four years after returning to China, I went to many places in the country, saw a lot of new things, and felt that "the old revolution meets new problems".Since then, I have had the idea of ​​writing this book, but due to the busy work, I have not started writing.What finally made me make up my mind was my "Yabuli Covenant" with Wu Xiaobo.

In January 2008, Xiaobo and I met in Yabuli, Heilongjiang Province, and talked for several hours.Xiaobo believes that 2009 is the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Republic, and according to Chinese tradition, Jiazi is the biggest!China needs a book that looks back at history and looks to the future from an economic perspective.He asked me to write such a book after he knew some research I had done in economics.I was worried at the time that my book was too academic and would not be liked by many people.But Xiaobo thinks, don't care about these things, the era needs this topic, which is a kind of historical responsibility.He described his motivation for writing: One afternoon in 2004, Wu Xiaobo, who was living in the United States, had the idea of ​​writing a history of China's 30-year reform and opening up.At that time, many friends advised him not to write such a book because the title was boring.But Wu Xiaobo insisted on writing. He felt that China needs a corporate history. Four years later, his publication became the best-selling book of the year, and the "Agitation of the Storm" initiated by him still resonates strongly with the agitation era that has not yet traveled far.

Encouraged by Xiaobo, I immediately agreed.Unexpectedly, I did not passively keep my promise to such a "Yabuli Covenant", but was "intoxicated and knew no way back" in the process of writing the manuscript, unable to stop. The origin of this book was written for the birthday of the Republic of Jiazi.I checked the economic literature on the 40th and 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and found that there is still a lack of a long-span summary of economic history.Although there are many good books in 2008 that summarize the 30 years of reform and opening up, I think it is necessary to stand at the height of global economic development and examine the overall economic history of the 60th anniversary of the founding of New China from the perspective of economic history and economic future. Including the first 30 years of New China (1949-1979) and the second 30 years (1979-2009).As the name suggests, the great economic history is to answer "where do we come from", and the great economic future is to answer "where are we going".These are two twin philosophical questions, and it is not enough to answer either one.

With the deepening of writing, I have a clearer understanding of the overall structure of the era.The 60 years from 1949 to 2009, in the 5,000-year history of Chinese civilization, was nothing more than a flick of a finger.But I feel more and more that the great economic changes of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China are a "great change in China's economy" and a process in which the "Chinese Dream" has gone from extinction to rekindling, no matter in terms of vertical era orientation or horizontal international comparison. From a vertical perspective, the past 60 years have inherited the glory of China's economy for thousands of years, reversed the century-old economic decline since the Opium War in 1840, and ushered in a new era after it.This 60 years has basically completed another economic revolution after China's agricultural revolution in the past 5,000 years, that is, the industrial revolution, which has changed the long-term stagnation of China's per capita GDP from 1 AD to 1948, created unimaginable social wealth, and It will have a profound impact on the long-term development of China's economy in the future.

From a horizontal perspective, these 60 years have also had a profound impact on the world economy, and its significance goes far beyond the scope of Asia.Throughout history, the only thing comparable in magnitude is the rise of the American economy in the 19th century.Following the first economic revolution (agricultural revolution) 5,000 years ago, China once again ignited the economic torch of the "Chinese Dream" and achieved a rare re-emergence. The global effect is still continuing and will profoundly change the future economy of mankind. future and destiny. In this book, the great thing of "China's economic changes" that I tried to describe has only just been completed, and the fire of the "Chinese Dream" has just been rekindled.Relying on a large amount of objective data as a basis, I can temporarily put aside the historical law of "distance produces justice" and make a calm and objective summary of China's second economic revolution.We are not only the outside audience of "China's Great Economic Change", but also people in the play.Missing the summary of the past 60 years on the birthday of the Republic of Jiazi will leave regrets of the times; missing the time of the birthday of the Republic of Jiazi to look forward to the next 40 years will lack the romance of the times.Therefore, I recorded the personal experience of an economic worker in the "China's Great Economic Change" and his thoughts on the impact on the future.

Just as the French historian Tocqueville said: "The time to study and discuss these issues seems to have arrived. The exact position we are in today just enables us to better observe and judge this great thing. We are far from the Great Revolution. So far away that we feel only slightly the passion that dazzled the participants of the Revolution; at the same time we are still so close to the Revolution that we can penetrate deeply into the spirit that guided it. Before long it will be difficult for people to do This is the end! For a great revolution, once successful, makes the cause of the revolution disappear, and the revolution itself becomes incomprehensible by virtue of its own success."

The idea of ​​this book is to divide the economic era in a large span. From AD 1 to AD 2049, I divided 2049 into six economic eras according to the changes in the "profit model" of the Chinese economy: From 1 to 1839 A.D. was the "glorious era". China achieved the glory of agricultural economy with technology, but it also fell into the trap of "high-level dynamic equilibrium"; The period from 1840 to 1948 was the "Crisis Era". The "profit model" of the industrial economy was not established, but it was heavily in debt and on the verge of bankruptcy;

The first 30 years of the Republic (1949-1979) was the "Entrepreneurship Era", actively exploring the "Chinese Dream 1.0" marked by the realization of the "Four Modernizations"!Found a suboptimal "profit model", that is, the planned economic system, which paid high tuition fees on the road to heavy industrialization, but also promoted the accumulation of human capital; The last 30 years (1979-2009) is the "price era", and the optimal market economic model has been found, and the "Chinese price" is famous all over the world!Realized the "Chinese Dream 2.0" marked by a well-off level;

The next 20 years, from the 60th year of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the 80th year of the founding of the People's Republic of China (2009-2029), will be the "Brand Era", "Made in China" will lead the brand fashion of the world economy, and pursue the "Chinese Dream 2.5" of building a well-off society in an all-round way; From the 80th year of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the 100th year of the founding of the People's Republic of China (2029-2049) is the "innovation era", the "innovative country" has basically been established, and "China's information" and "China's biological" have achieved "China's new economy"; in 2049, the People's Republic of China On the centennial anniversary, China has realized the third-step economic development strategic goal, that is, "China Dream 3.0", and has become one of the main engines at the forefront of the world economy, making due contributions to human civilization and the world economy again. A whole new situation that cannot even be imagined by a rich imagination."

In this book, I will lead readers to quickly switch the screen of the era in a huge time span, review the past and look forward to the future.I don't want to use montage-like techniques to create a strange feeling for readers, and I don't have the ability to create the magic of the 5,000-year civilization scroll slowly unfolding at the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, let alone deliberately exaggerate the heaviness of history itself and the longing for the future of human beings. Aesthetics, but hope to be a dream seeker of "Chinese Dream 3.0" with readers.Since ancient times, China has had the millennium "Chinese Dream" of a well-off society, but the forbidden seas of the Ming and Qing dynasties restricted its rich imagination, and it was unaware of the outbreak of the industrial revolution.

China's modern economic decline caused by the lack of imagination of the industrial revolution happened only once. The "Chinese Dream" rekindled since 1949 is also the only time in history. How rare it is to witness its magnificent and magnificent process.So I tried to write a poem "Chinese Dream Fu": , Closed up and locked the country, the phoenix bird broke its wings and fell to death. , the economy is sinking, and Yanzhao's tragic song has national mourning. , Entrepreneurship reform, talking and laughing, the world is well-off. . It is not easy to describe such a "great change in China's economy". On the one hand, there must be objective economic facts, and on the other hand, innovative economic thinking, and the ability to organically combine economic data with economic thinking.The current world financial crisis has also plunged the mainstream neoclassical economics into a state of crisis, and the world calls for a new economic revolution.Inheriting the tradition of challenging the orthodox academic tradition of the School of Economics at Cambridge University, I put forward a new economic thought in the book "Learning Economics" published in 2002, that is, introducing the philosophy of science into economics and proposing a jump in the supply curve, which is a new way of thinking. Marxist economics lays the basic framework.In this book, I continue to use this economic thought to understand the past and predict the future through the analysis of a large amount of data, "through the changes of the past and the present". In 2009 AD, the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Republic.We are in such an era after the beginning of the "China's Great Economic Change", an era where we dare to shout out "I have a Chinese dream", and we can't help but feel a surge of emotion.Although this book is a monograph on economics, it also covers a wide range of other fields.My purpose is to use this book to communicate and exchange my inner feelings and life experience with readers in a rational language, so as to understand and think about the past, present, and future of the Chinese economy.In any case, I hope to do my best to provide readers with an economics monograph that can bring a sense of history, the times and the future.The book only expresses personal academic views!Inevitably there are deficiencies, and readers are urged to criticize and correct.

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Notes: , published by CITIC Publishing House.