Chapter 4 Translator's Preface

Twenty-five years ago, that is, in 1982, the famous American futurist John Naisbitt (John Naisbitt) wrote a popular book "Megatrends: Ten New Directions Changing Our Lives" (Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives) ).According to the characteristics he observed that the United States and even the world have entered or are about to enter the "information age", the author predicts that the United States will develop in accordance with ten "megatrends", and these ten "major trends" will affect the United States and even the world. The world's "social organization, changes in institutions and everyday life, work and political attitudes of every individual".

A quarter of a century has passed, and the United States, and indeed the world, have indeed undergone tremendous changes.However, in some people's eyes, the United States and the world did not change in the direction of only ten "megatrends" as predicted by John Naisbitt, but changed according to the ten "megatrends" Many more "minitrends" are changing.Two of these people are the authors of this book, Mark J. Penn and E. Kinney Zalesne.This is what they think in Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes (Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes), which they launched to the United States and the world in 2007.Now that the Chinese translation of this book is in front of the readers, the readers can see that the basic point of view of the two authors is, "You cannot know more about the world just based on 'big trends' or common experiences. In Today's divided society, if you're going to do something successfully, you have to understand groups that you can only spot if you look closely, and they're growing and moving in criss-crossing directions, fast and furious. These are the microtrends."And these "minitrends are a growing group that can only be detected by careful observation, and they have needs that cannot be met by the current number of companies, marketers, policymakers, and other people or institutions that will affect social behavior."

The two authors are indeed "careful observers".Mark J. Payne is a strategic advisor to top politicians and CEO of a public relations firm.His observations of the United States, and perhaps the world, are broad and deep, and his "extraordinarily sharp brain" is often able to observe from a "unique and wise perspective" that only careful and intelligent people can observe things. E. Kinney Zalina is also a frequent visitor to the US federal government. He has always observed the world from the "perspective of social change" and thus served the White House with "his own unique spiritual insights".It should be said that the observation skills of the two authors are first-rate.Through careful observation of American society, they discovered many "small trends" in American society.Their definition of "mini-trend" is: in the 300 million people in the United States, as long as 1%, that is, 3 million people, have no value or living habits, or behavior patterns, or even physical characteristics (too fat, too thin, tall, petite) Or left-handers) are the same or similar, thus forming a group with common needs that cannot be met by the current society, that is, a "mini-trend".The author has a keen eye for 75 "minitrends" and categorizes them into 15 themes: love, sex and relationships; work life; race and religion; health and happiness; family Life; Politics; Boys and Girls; Food, Drink & Dieting; Lifestyle; Money & Class; Appearance & Fashion; Technology; Leisure & Entertainment; Education; International.These small trends involve politics, economy, society, and culture, and it can be said that they cover all aspects of contemporary Americans. Reading them is indeed like reading an "encyclopedia" of today's America.When describing and analyzing some "mini-trends", the authors also compare these "mini-trends" in the United States with similar international "trends", observe and analyze them with a world perspective, and thus provide their own conclusions. Wider support.

Of course, it should not be very difficult to describe these "mini-trends" in general terms.However, in addition to "careful observation", the two authors also make extensive use of the data released by the US government agencies and the data of the US private authoritative survey companies (in fact, Mark J. Payne himself is the CEO of a well-known survey company. ) speak for themselves.This really corresponds to the saying: "Americans, talk about data." Therefore, we can see charts and statistics in most chapters.This provides sociological and statistical tools for us to further understand and study American society.

The author's discovery of "minitrends" is to make American society cater to the "minitrends" that have formed, or prepare for the "minitrends" that are forming.And this kind of catering and preparation first needs to update the concept.Speaking of concepts, I was deeply impressed by the author's heartfelt emotion when talking about a "mini-trend".The authors say that (among African-Americans) The truth of the matter is that a new generation has emerged, and the realities of the first decade of the 21st century should replace the old ideas of the 1950s and 1960s.The progress that black society has made is simply astonishing.While tens of thousands of black teens break the law every year, tens of thousands of black teens also go to college every year to design first-rate careers for themselves.Black youth are the fastest-growing group of college graduates, and they often find lucrative jobs after graduation.The emergence of this ultra-successful class is changing American culture, dismantling old stereotypes, and destroying racial barriers in offices and high-level political decision-making institutions.There is less and less news about black youth learning bad things and more and more news about them going the right way.The system is playing a role in driving this small trend among young black people forward.

…(It) also means that black youth are steadily getting rich and actually taking leadership roles in society.In fact, the majority of black children in America, including boys, are in school, devoutly trusting American democracy to do (or more) what they should do to make America a better place contribution.Not only should they be a significant target market for the technology, apparel, sports and entertainment industries, but they should also have access to education, employment, volunteering and leadership at all levels. Indeed, there are too many black youth struggling in the United States, and our rich country must really care about their problems.But media and marketing pundits also need to correct some stereotypes that most black youths are exemplary citizens with an extraordinary sense of citizenship.There are also some super successful black people, and their achievements are not inferior to white successful people.Driven by this successful-oriented group, sooner or later black society will undergo fundamental changes.They set the right example at a time when so many Americans don't seem to be behaving in the right way.

After reading this, I can't help but think of a short story about my recent association with black people in the United States.In the early spring of this year, I went to Philadelphia in the United States.Philadelphia is a large city with a large black population in the United States. It has a long history and tradition in American history.One day, it was cold and I was wandering downtown.Because of the cold, I went to the Borders bookstore on South Broad Street to avoid the cold.I saw many black people reading books there, many of them were young black people.I found that they are very particular about public morality. After finishing a book, they put it back in the original place, and then take another book to read.The books they read include art, culture, politics, history, law and other humanities and social sciences.When they are reading, their expressions are concentrated, as if there is no one else around, in short, they are very devoted; occasionally they will exchange a few words with their companions in a soft voice.Inspired by them, I also attentively browsed the books on the shelf and bought a few books that I liked very much.Before I leave, I would like to ask them to take a souvenir photo of me in this bookstore.To be honest, seeing them reading so intently, I really can't bear to disturb them.But I can't help it because no one else is around.When I apologized to a young black man next to me and made my request, he readily agreed and took a photo of me with the cathedral in the background through the bookstore's floor-to-ceiling windows.If it is said that the story is here, there is nothing worthy of my touch, but the story is not over yet.After reading the photos, I felt that the framing and composition were not ideal, and the light was a bit dark, so I asked him if I could take two more photos.Of course, he said.Then I told him how to frame, how to compose, and how to use light.He opened his eyes wide, opened his mouth, listened very carefully, and nodded from time to time, saying ok.Then, I set the pose and he was ready to take the photo.Maybe it was because he was taller than me and couldn't find the angle I asked for, or maybe it was because of other reasons, he raised the camera up for a while, lowered the camera for a while; Shooting, fiddled with for a long time before pressing the shutter.I took the camera to see his work.Unfortunately, it still didn't meet my request.I don't want to bother him anymore, so I said thank you and left.But he asked me "Ok?" because I didn't think it was ok, so I couldn't say ok.This lovely black young man said "I'm sorry" to me and asked one of his companions to retake the picture for me.After repeating this several times, I finally reached a level that I am basically satisfied with.I said "thank you" several times very sincerely, and then reluctantly left the bookstore.

In the publications I read about African Americans in the past, many of them associated African Americans, especially African American youth, with poverty, hunger, despair, and even drug abuse, rape, murder, and arson, which disgusted me. together.When I was in the United States, many friends also kindly advised me "don't go to places where there are many black people when it is dark" and "don't bring a lot of cash, lest you be targeted by people, especially black people".But in my pleasant travels across the continent, whether in Philadelphia or San Francisco, whether in New York or Washington, whether it's the lovely black middle school students, and the honest black women, and the kindness like Uncle Tom black elderly people are very kind to people and are willing to help strangers instead of "not talking to strangers".During my travels in the United States, I have received a lot of warm, selfless and generous help from Americans, including black people.They all take helping others as their own happiness, they are all sunny, and they are full of love for their own life and the lives of others, especially in those black youths, I also feel a vigorous and precious spirit.

According to the book's authors, when comparing black youth with white youth on three criteria of good American citizenship—regular church attendance, active volunteering, and voting—the data show that "black youth not only They are better than white youths, and they can be called a role model among blacks." I have not verified this statement with my own eyes, but my short experience in the United States has made me more or less believe this statement, at least The misconceptions I used to have about black Americans, especially black youth in America, have long since evaporated.So when I wandered the streets of some cities again, my friends' kind advice to me was long forgotten by me.

Of course, I must admit that my trip to the United States was just to observe the flowers on horseback. Although the observation was close-up, the time was short and the understanding was relatively superficial.But the book I participated in translating confirmed my good impression of African-Americans.At least when I see poverty, hunger, despair, and even words such as drug abuse, rape, murder, and arson that disgust me, the first thing that comes to my mind is not black people, especially not black youths.I hope that the "small trend" of "role models among blacks" mentioned in this book can change those who have not been to the United States, but because of some media propaganda, they have negative views on black Americans, especially black youths. people’s views, or to dispel the misunderstanding of blacks by those who have been to the United States before but have a bad impression of blacks in the United States.

In fact, in our lives, most misunderstandings are not the result of our direct experience.The reason why we have misunderstood some things and formed paradigms and preferences that are not easy to change, in addition to being influenced by the outside world (including media propaganda, ideological indoctrination, etc.), is to a large extent our own. Bound by traditional concepts, unable to see the changes in things, so they are more alienated and even disgusted with new things and new phenomena.But the world is changing, and people's ideas also need to change, because only when people's ideas change can they gain strength to adapt to the changes in the world and further promote the changes in the world.As I write this, I think of a cover article on the issue of TIME published in March this year: 10 Ideas that change the world (10 Ideas that are changing the world).When the editor introduced this article, he said: "Ideas change the world. The power of a new idea is the engine that changes our way of life and thinking." Yes!Compared with inventions such as steam engines, trains, ships, airplanes, rockets, atomic bombs, and electronic computers, the power of ideas is countless times greater.The power of ideas cannot be overestimated, because no matter what new inventions, no matter how powerful these new inventions are, they are the result of the transformation of people's ideas.Concepts change our lives, concepts change the way we think, and changes in concepts make people smarter than ever.People who become smarter because of the change of concept will then discover countless "minitrends" in the changing world, thereby discovering infinite opportunities.Perhaps it was the author's shift in perspective that led him to spot "microtrends" such as "soccer moms," "heavy swing voters," and "struggling illegal immigrants," and to advise their politician patrons to change their campaign strategies in order to win More voters; perhaps it is because the author found that many people have changed the traditional concept of love, marriage, and family, so he found "commuter couples" and "LAT couples" and "senior dads" such "small trends" ".And his detailed description of these "mini-trends" may make businesses keep their eyes open for opportunities that could make them rich, even big.Because for any merchant, who dares to turn a blind eye to a huge customer base of at least 3 million people? In fact, if careful Chinese readers observe China's current society in comparison with the "mini-trends" in the United States, they may be able to find many more "mini-trends" than in the United States.The reason is simple. China has a population of 1 billion more than the United States. Although the 1.3 billion Chinese people live in a different stage of economic development from the United States, have different levels of education, and have different sensitivities to the outside world, they all aspire to Live the abundance of life and the joy of spirit.Today's Chinese, especially Chinese young people are eager to make progress and realize their own life value.They don't want to repeat the life of their parents, they want to control their own destiny and weave their own dreams.And with the surge of various thoughts, fashions, and opportunities, the impulse of this desire will burst out in various ways, so that people who pursue the same goals, personal preferences, behaviors, and family backgrounds form countless "" Small trends" (only in China, we call it "family") - such as "white-collar workers", "workers", "fitness workers", "beautiful people", "housing workers", "car owners" Clan", "DINK Clan", "Single Clan", "Elder Clan", "Clan Who Hates Living With Their Parents", "Clan Who Can't Eat and Drink", "Clan Who Doesn't Spend Money, Dies for Nothing", etc. Wait.The question is whether politicians can discover these "mini-trends" in a timely manner, formulate appropriate social policies in response to these "mini-trends", guide the positive "mini-trends" to develop healthily, and turn those less healthy ones into society. The negative impact of "mini-trends" is minimized.The question is whether businesses can fine-tune these "mini-trends" so as to discover their existing or potential customer groups, not only make money for themselves, but also provide opportunities for others to make money, and more importantly, help the government solve the problem. Difficult employment problem.In short, although China's economy is not as developed as that of the United States, and its culture is not as diverse as that of the United States, there are also "small trends" in China.We hope that after reading this book, readers can compare the "small trends" on the other side of the ocean, draw inferences from one instance to another, and discover more "small trends" that have Chinese characteristics and may have an impact on Chinese society in the future.This is one of the reasons why we are willing to translate this book. This book is the result of collective translation.Liu Yongan translated the preface, the first and second sections of the first part to the fourth part; He Hefeng translated the fifth part to the eleventh part; Zhou Yanhui translated the twelfth part to the fifteenth part and the conclusion and thanks , Liu Yongan revised the part translated by Zhou Yanhui.Ding Hao, a student of Grade 05 English major at the School of Foreign Languages, South-Central University for Nationalities, translated the third, fourth, and fifth sections of the fourth part, and He Hefeng proofread Ding Hao's translation.The book was finally drafted by Liu Yongan. In the process of translating this book, we have received warm help from our colleague Comrade Xu Baoyou, and we hereby express our sincere thanks to him. Finally, it needs to be explained that this book reflects the latest American lifestyle, the latest living habits, and the latest values. Moreover, the author uses exquisite words, and the language is vivid, humorous, and very colloquial. If you want to translate the original text accurately For those of us who are not familiar with American social life and have not conducted special research on the development of contemporary American English, it is undoubtedly a big challenge to restore the author's style of writing.Therefore, although we try our best to provide readers with a first-class translation, due to our lack of ability, it is inevitable that there will be mistranslations and omissions. Please feel free to correct me. translator In August 2008, at Xixie Street, Xidan, Beijing