Chapter 19 Chapter 19 Successful decision-making, will you?
Successful decisions are made every day, albeit at different times, in different places, and in the hands of different leaders.Although the decision-making content is different and the decision-making environment is different, these decisions are not random, but have some fixed procedures.For example, Herbert A. Simon of the United States believes that: "Successful decision-making includes four main aspects: finding out the reasons for making decisions, finding possible action plans, making choices among the action plans, and reviewing the choices that have been made. evaluate."
1. Find problems and determine goals
Leadership decision-making is all about solving a certain problem, so whether the problem exists, what the problem is, and what goal to achieve when making a certain decision-making, these are the problems that leadership decision-making must first solve.Therefore, decision makers should be good at identifying and discovering problems from complicated information.In decision-making, a successful decision-maker should proceed from the overall situation, process and deal with many problems with a strategic vision and a systematic method, and extract decision-making goals from them.This decision-making goal must be clear and specific, with a clear distinction between primary and secondary, and constraints, optimization, and feasibility must also be considered.
2. Brainstorm and formulate a plan
Develop a variety of decision-making options, which is the basis for successful decision-making.In the process of formulating plans, attention should be paid to the diversity, difference, and democracy of decision-making plans.First of all, when making a decision, we should try our best to put forward multiple plans, and try our best to avoid the only choice with only one plan.Because there are many solutions, we can compare and identify them, and choose the best solution.This requires decision-makers to broaden their minds, boldly put forward as many and comprehensive plans as possible, and try to take various factors and possibilities into consideration.
Second, attention should be paid to making the various schemes different in principle, not just in details or in form.Only in this way, the plans will not be the same, and will have the meaning of choice.As the American management scientist Dulac said: Good decision-making should be based on conflicting opinions, choose from different viewpoints, and choose from different judgments.
Again, pay attention to the democratic nature of decision-making.When making a decision, in addition to having a dedicated decision-making body, the decision-maker must also have a sound think tank and a broad mass of people.Especially for the decision-making of complex systems, it is necessary to use the intelligence of the group system to give full play to their enthusiasm and creativity, so as to produce the overall system optimization effect that the whole is greater than the sum of the functions of the parts.After the goal is determined, it is necessary to study the ways, methods and means to achieve the decision-making goal.That's programming.To formulate a plan, it is necessary to mobilize and rely on the masses to achieve the democratic nature of the plan; to make full use of think tanks to ensure the scientific nature of the plan, so as to realize democratic and scientific decision-making.
3. Comprehensive evaluation and selected plan
This stage is the process of leadership decision-making, and it is the most critical stage in the decision-making process. How the "cut" is made not only determines the meaning of the previous "conspiracy", but also determines the fate of the subsequent implementation of the work.
Review multiple decision-making options to find the optimal one.The evaluation decision-making plan must first formulate a set of evaluation standards or index systems based on the decision-making goals. Such standards or index systems must fully reflect the full value of the decision-making goals.The indicator system can be comprehensively determined according to technical indicators, economic indicators, financial indicators, ecological benefit indicators, social benefit indicators, etc.When evaluating a decision-making plan, it is necessary to always focus on the decision-making goal, evaluate and demonstrate the plan in multiple aspects and at multiple levels, and consider whether the decision-making plan has achieved the decision-making goal, whether it is feasible, whether it is the best overall, and whether it is the most beneficial and the least expensive. , Whether it is coordinated with relevant systems, and the degree of risk of the analysis plan, the relationship between pros and cons, etc.
In short, a systematic and comprehensive trade-off must be carried out on all aspects in order to select an overall optimal solution from various solutions, or to synthesize different solutions into an optimal and feasible solution.
In long-term practice, many organizations have formed good decision-making standards. For example, some units implement the "three no principles" for decision-making on major issues: that is, no decision-making without investigation and research; no decision-making without consultation and argumentation; no more than two The program is relatively undecided.Practice has proved that this is an effective principle to prevent blind and hasty decision-making.In this process of decision-making, the decision-making center system is in an absolute central position, while the think tank system, decision-making supervision system, and auxiliary systems are only in an auxiliary position.
4. Implement the plan and conduct feedback tracking
After the decision-making plan has been optimized, simulated experiments and necessary corrections, it enters the implementation stage of the decision-making plan.Generally speaking, the implementation of a decision-making plan does not mean the termination of decision-making thinking.Due to the complexity of the real decision-making system, in the process of implementing the decision-making plan, some deviations from the decision-making goal may occur in varying degrees or even completely.This requires people to constantly follow up and check during the decision-making process, and make necessary feedback adjustments and corrections in a timely manner, especially when the implementation of the original decision-making plan can no longer adapt to the changed subjective and objective conditions, and the overall goal of the original decision-making has become obvious. When the ground cannot be realized, it is necessary to make a fundamental correction or replacement of the decision-making goal or plan, which is the follow-up decision-making.Effective feedback and tracking is a key to scientific decision-making.
The famous IBM company in the United States once decided to develop a "future system" electronic computer, gathered several experts, spent several years, and spent 500 million U.S. dollars, but finally decided to stop.Because when they analyzed the feedback information, they believed that the prospect of success in the research of the project was slim, and there would be greater losses if they continued.At the same time, they applied many partial achievements and experiences already developed in this project to the development of other products, which also minimized the loss.Facts have shown that the tracking decision for this goal feedback is correct.
In short, decision-making is a complex system engineering, which requires people to proceed from systematic ideas, viewpoints, and principles, use systematic methods, and follow scientific procedures to make successful decisions.
The so-called think tanks in decision-making, also known as "external brain systems", "brain companies", "think tanks", etc., are relatively high-level and professional consulting organizations that provide decision-making services for leaders.In this kind of organization, natural scientists, social scientists and other experts or professionals of different professions are concentrated. They have their own specialties in their respective professional fields and even have their own characteristics in age. They form a huge The comprehensive knowledge base provides suggestions for leaders.
Iacocca, the president of the famous American Chrysler Automobile Company, once benefited from the great help of think tanks to create the fabulous economic miracle.Before Iacocca came to power, Chrysler Motor Company did not grasp the impact of the world oil crisis and still produced large cars with high fuel consumption. As a result, it lost 700 million U.S. dollars in nine months in 1979, breaking the record in the history of the United States. highest record.After Iacocca came to power, he boldly transformed and produced the K-type car designed by the company's consulting group led by Hal Sperridge, and launched a series of numerous models based on the K-type car, reopening the market.After three years of hard work, Iacocca not only saved and rebuilt the precarious Chrysler company, but also made a profit of $240 million in 1984 and repaid $1.2 billion in government loans ahead of schedule.Its stock rose from $3 per share in 1981 to $30.75 in 1984.
It can be seen that in the face of fierce competition, if a leader proceeds from a single or purely empirical professional direction, it is ineffective to adopt a dictatorial decision-making method, and must focus on establishing think tanks and think tanks to assist their decision-making.
The work of the think tank is carried out according to the goals and requirements of the leaders, but for the think tank itself, it has its own internal laws and working procedures, and has its own set of effective methods.As far as its working procedure is concerned, it can be divided into three steps.
The first step is to accept the decision-making consulting task and form a think tank team.The work of think tanks is generally carried out around the research tasks proposed by the leaders, mainly to understand the intentions and goals of the leaders, to fully grasp the background and key links of the questions raised by the leaders, and to clarify the goals of the research questions.Secondly, the think tank should select and equip professionals according to the nature of the problem and the subject content to be studied, form a think tank team, and have someone in charge.Thirdly, after accepting the consulting task, the think tank should start preliminary work, conduct preliminary investigation, and formulate a work plan based on the preliminary investigation.
The second step is to conduct a comprehensive investigation and study and design an evaluation plan for decision-making.After the investigation work plan is determined, the think tank team can conduct a comprehensive and in-depth investigation on the issues to be studied according to the plan, and collect data and information.If there is a data database, you can search the relevant abstract first, and then search the original text as needed to learn about the relevant situation.If market research is carried out, it is necessary to go deep into the market to understand the information related to the research project, such as price, quality, origin, performance, etc., so as to be able to analyze, compare and study the questions raised by the leaders and the relevant index system , and then formulate various programs, and analyze and evaluate each program.
The third step is to solicit opinions from multiple parties and propose a decision-making reference plan.Based on the analysis and evaluation of various programs, after repeated demonstrations, a preliminary research program is proposed, and relevant personnel are called to listen to their opinions and reactions to the research program, and if possible, exchange ideas with leaders , Listen to the leader's initial response.Then, the think tank will make corresponding revisions and adjustments based on the opinions and responses of all parties, and strive to make the entire decision-making plan fully meet the requirements of the leaders and the actual situation.Finally, everyone brainstormed and conducted repeated internal discussions and consultations, and finally formed a feasible decision-making reference plan, which was sent to the leaders for their decision-making reference.
Of course, think tanks, as the “external brain” of leaders, provide decision-making references for leaders. Their functions and tasks are only to study the problems raised by leaders and provide leaders with various alternative solutions, from which leaders make decisions.Decision-making is the function of leadership and the final result of the entire decision-making process.So, how should leaders make decisions on the best decision-making reference schemes provided by think tanks?This is actually a question of how leaders use the think tank to make correct decisions.
When leaders listen to the opinions of think tanks, it is often the case that everyone's opinions are very different, which requires leaders to find common ground.First of all, leaders are required to listen to the various plans with an open mind, without making any judgments, and to find common points in the differences of various plans.Then, set up processing, analyze different opinions, make them tend to be consistent, and integrate them into a new plan.There are several techniques available for this approach of seeking common ground while reserving differences, as follows:
First, the pros and cons analysis
Since various plans are very different, the leader can guide everyone to analyze the pros and cons of various plans, urge all parties to make up for the disadvantages, abandon the disadvantages and pursue the advantages, learn from each other's strengths and make up for the weaknesses, and reach a consensus.
Second, marginal analysis
This method is to increase the number of decision-making think tanks and see their views on different opinions. If more new personnel tend to a plan, the plan is better.
Third, the cooling method
Let both sides of the debate temporarily calm down the debate, calm down and reflect, and then organize a discussion after a period of time.This will enable everyone to have a clear understanding, make repeated trade-offs, and choose the optimal solution.In short, the leader should not only give full play to the role of think tank, but also make himself independent of the final decision-making.It is necessary to scientifically use the reference plan of the think tank, but also to ensure the effectiveness of its own decision-making.It is not a successful leader without relying on the role of a think tank.In today's fierce competition, leaders should give full play to the role of think tanks, use them flexibly and effectively, make their decisions within a reasonable framework and remain invincible in practice.
The decision-making process generally includes the following methods:
1. Decisive
Modern enterprises require a certain degree of efficiency in decision-making, because only in this way can they adapt to the ever-changing market competition.Indecision, intentional or unintentional delay in decision-making often reduces the efficiency of decision-making.When hesitating, the decision-maker must first find out the main reason for the delay before he can prescribe the right medicine and start to improve.
You can first list several pending decisions, and then analyze carefully to see why and where these problems enter the decision-making system, and find out the common reasons.The next step is to judge whether the solution to the problem is within the scope of one's own power.If it is, solve it immediately, if not, the solution to the problem depends on the support of others.This is the time to try to create an event that makes improvement in the decision-making process imminent, and be prepared to have an open dialogue with those who have the most influence on the reform, not to leave out everyone who has influence on the reform.You can write your own reform proposals and reasons into a manuscript, and cite special cases to enhance your persuasiveness, and your own change proposals should include two or three alternatives:
Among the approaches to reforming the decision-making process, several options are possible:
Form high-efficiency groups in order to rely on the strength of the groups to form better decision-making methods.This group should reflect the status of the various groups and departments that are delaying the decision-making process.
Minimize the scope of major decisions.This range should guarantee a high level of success in order to build confidence and support for the reforms that follow.
Downgrade the level of decision making.Discover trustworthy, responsible, and high-quality talents in the enterprise, and give them corresponding decision-making power. At the same time, there must be a check and balance mechanism to prevent these talents from making unfavorable decisions for the enterprise.
Divide the decision-making process into small, incremental steps.Let decision makers make the first stage of decision-making, give them the opportunity to make decisions, cultivate their ability to make decisions, and pay attention to introducing the situation and providing suggestions when interacting with them.Encourage them when they have successfully made a decision.
As you try to improve your decision-making process, keep the following in mind to avoid mistakes.
First of all, you should not regard indecision and procrastination as the fault of others, otherwise, no one will dare to put forward their own ideas.After carefully analyzing several decision-making processes, you will find that whether the preparation is sufficient in advance or not, the way of presentation will have a great impact on the decision-making, and sometimes it is the main factor that hinders the decision-making.Therefore, it is necessary to develop the ability of each person, let them learn how to draw important information to others' attention, how to write manuscripts, how to express their ideas, plans, proposals or reports clearly and clearly to readers.
Second, pay attention to whether all subordinates have evasive behavior.If so, let everyone discuss together and find a way to make all subordinates learn to take action and take forward steps.The best way to do this is to bring everyone together to envision ways to move away from tolerance of evasive action.
2. Intuition
Historically, nearly every major MBA program has focused on teaching students a broad range of decision-making models.The guiding principle driving this approach seems to be that if it cannot be quantified, it does not exist.
However, the flaws of this rational approach to decision-making are obvious.Because the actual situation may be complex and changeable, the essence of the rational model is to replace intuition with systematic logic, and use a large number of fixed models to predict and decide some future events, which may have large deviations.So intuitive decision-making is gaining a new following among business schools and managers.Experts no longer assume without analysis that the use of intuition is an irrational or ineffective way to make decisions.A growing number of leaders are beginning to believe that rational analysis has a tendency to be overemphasized and that, in some cases, decision making can be improved through the decision maker's intuition.
Intuition is not to be replaced by rational analysis - rather the two approaches are complementary.Using intuition at the outset of decision making, decision makers strive to avoid system analysis problems.He lets his intuition run free, striving to generate unusual possibilities and new scenarios that would not normally emerge from analysis of past data and conventional ways of doing things.The use of intuition at the end of decision-making depends on rational analysis to determine decision-making criteria and their weights, as well as rational analysis to formulate and evaluate alternatives.The eight situations in which leaders are most likely to use intuitive decision-making today are as follows:
when uncertainty exists.
When very few precedents exist.
When changes are difficult to predict scientifically.
"Facts" are limited.
When the facts are not enough to clearly point the way forward.
When analytical data is of little use.
When there is a need to choose one of several possible alternatives, each of which is rated favorably.
When time is limited and there is pressure to come up with the right decision.
3. Fuzzy way of thinking
Modern science has proved that business decision-making inevitably involves a large number of fuzzy problems, and using fuzzy thinking methods to make decisions is an essential ability for decision-makers.
The so-called fuzzy thinking, first of all, as far as the object of its thinking is concerned, it is a rational understanding of fuzzy things.The more complex and changeable things are, the more likely fuzzy thinking will play a role.The logical basis of fuzzy thinking is fuzzy logic, which uses fuzzy concept judgment and fuzzy reasoning for thinking.Secondly, as far as its thinking method is concerned, although it is not like precise thinking that can be accurately quantified and completely formalized, compiled into a strict program, and simulated and reproduced by a machine, it also has quantitative characteristics and a formal structure. It is a synthesis of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
Fuzzy thinking is a characteristic and advantage of human brain thinking, which is far beyond the reach of electronic computers.The human brain can carry out parallel and overall thinking activities according to parallel lines. It hopes to obtain as much information as possible at the same time and process it at the same time.Although only a relatively low level of accuracy can be achieved, it has a relatively high reliability.Similarly, modern enterprises are faced with a rapidly changing external environment. If everything is calculated quantitatively and accurately, it will delay the opportunity.On the contrary, learning to use fuzzy thinking can often avoid this situation.
Steel magnate Ken Everson said: "Getting an MBA from Harvard is pretty good, but they make 40 percent of the decisions wrong. The worst leaders make 60 percent of the decisions Wrong." In Everson's view, the difference between the best and the worst is only 20 percent.Even if mistakes are often made, don't be afraid to make any decisions.Everson believes, "The responsibility of managers is to make various decisions. Without making decisions, there is no management. Managers should build up a strong self-esteem and actively urge themselves to make fewer mistakes."
1. Master the correct thinking
If you have the right idea, decision makers can completely reduce the error rate.The correct way of thinking is to be aware of the difficulty of decision-making.Difficult issues must be approached with extreme caution.As a decision maker, you should pay special attention to the following aspects:
Be sure to fully grasp the information when making decisions, and be cautious when participating in competitions
In the 1990s, two pen-making companies with a high reputation in the United States launched a fierce and unprecedented competition.Unexpectedly, the powerful and rich Parker Company was completely defeated and went into decline, while Cross Company took the opportunity to rise and become the new overlord of the American pen industry.
People familiar with the matter said that the key to the prosperity of Cross Company is that its countermeasures are superior to that of Parker Company.
The Parker pen, known as "the first pen in the world", applied for a patent in 1889. It has been prosperous for more than 100 years, with an annual sales volume of 55 million, and its products are sold to more than 120 countries and regions around the world. .Cross pen has a history of more than 90 years, with an annual sales volume of more than 60 million.The difference is that Parker pens occupy the high-end market, while Cross pens are keen on the low-end market.The product flow of these two companies was not like this at the beginning, but was formed after several rounds of competition.For decades, although these two pen-making companies have not violated each other on the surface, they have continuously strengthened their strength in the dark.Parker sent spies to instigate Cross's technicians many times, and Cross responded with fire, using methods such as buying key personnel of the other party and wiretapping to continuously obtain Parker's economic intelligence.
In the early 1990s, the competition in the pen market became increasingly fierce. In order to further expand the market in the fierce market competition, Parker appointed a new president, Peterson.At the same time, Cross Company is also taking countermeasures. In addition to adjusting the marketing strategy, it is also stepping up the collection of Peterson's interests, hobbies and marketing strategies to be implemented after taking office.
Due to various reasons, the high-end fountain pen market is in a weak state. In order not to affect the company's economic benefits, and also to make the first shot after taking office, Peterson intends to work hard on expanding the market.Cross Company, which was closely watching Peterson's decision-making movements, learned of this information, immediately held a meeting to discuss countermeasures, decided to implement countermeasures, and launched a desperate contest with Parker Company.
Through a well-known public relations information consulting company, Cross Company proposed to Peterson the suggestion of "maintaining the high-end market and making great efforts to develop the low-end product market".This played into Peterson's hands.The authoritative advice of the consulting agency prevented Peterson from focusing on improving the style and quality of Parker pens in response to market changes, and consolidating the existing high-end market. Instead, he adopted the suggestion of developing the low-end product market. When the market for high-end products is weak, we will go all out to develop the market for low-end products.
Hearing this news, Cross Company was ecstatic and hurriedly implemented the second step plan.One is to pretend to hold an emergency meeting, show a panic and timidity, and formulate measures to compete with Parker for the low-end product market. It gives the impression that Cross is very afraid that Parker will come to compete for the low-end product market. There was panic up and down, and no effective contingency measures were formulated.Second, the president of the company sent a letter to the president of Parker, claiming that there was an agreement on the flow of the two product markets, and that Parker could not go back on its word and do unjust things.Such a lifelike performance by Cross strengthened Peterson's decision-making confidence, so Parker began to enter the low-end pen market in full swing.In order to prevent Parker from seeing its flaws and discovering fraud, Cross also made several advertisements to create a tense atmosphere of competition and put on a decisive battle posture.All this made Parker company aware and anxious. In order to take the first step, Parker company invested huge sums of money in advertising and created momentum by virtue of its wealth and brand name.
Seeing that the cross company has achieved the expected goal, it will make every effort to advance into the empty high-end pen market.
Although Parker has spent a lot of effort, the market effect has had little effect.Come to think of it, Parker pens are a premium product, a sign of decency.People buy Parker pens not only to buy a writing instrument, but more importantly, to prove their identity with an image and an experience.No matter how expensive Parker is, people are willing to accept it.But now the noble Parker pen has become a low-end commodity for 3 dollars a piece. What brand name is there?Parker successfully entered the low-end market, but failed to achieve its intended purpose.Not only that, consumers were fooled and refused to accept cheap Parker pens.
Sometimes for various reasons, decision makers have to make various decisions based on intuition before they have had time to grasp the full situation. In this case, the decisions made are likely to be wrong.
Don't be overconfident
Confidence gives courage to make bold decisions.Excessive self-confidence is self-defeating, destroying others and destroying oneself.In the sports world, there are many such examples.
Once, a wealthy businessman wanted to buy a football team.At that time, the asking price was very high, and he thought that as long as he had money, he didn't have to worry about anything.Overconfidence has blinded him to huge player salaries and dwindling TV ratings, an investment that would be worse than putting money in the bank.However, there are still people who are constantly making bets and buying teams.Overconfidence makes them feel that they can afford such expensive expenses.They believe that Feng Shui will change and they will not fail miserably, but the result is often that they fail miserably.Successful decision makers will never overestimate themselves, they will think twice, and they will never be blindly optimistic about specious good news.
don't stick to the rules
Many people often only rely on experience when making decisions, without thinking about what has changed in the environment.They will tell you based on their experience of failure years ago: "Dude, I did this 5 years ago and it didn't work." Just in time.
There is also a kind of people who cling to the old rules and don't dare to go one step further.They stubbornly believe that "this method worked 5 years ago, and of course it still works now." In their eyes, the world is static.
Julian Bach worked as a reporter for Life magazine as a young man.One day after World War II, he had lunch with a young Romanian who had escaped from a Nazi concentration camp.The young man made a living by selling memorabilia at the entrance of the Metropolitan Theater in New York.At that time, the theater was performing a ballet directed by the famous conductor Saul Herrock.
It was a sunny Tuesday in May.Tickets for the show were sold out, as were all the boy's souvenirs.Another week passed, and it was still Tuesday, the weather was still fine, the theater was performing the same ballet, and the show tickets were sold out again.But this time, almost none of the performance souvenirs were sold.
After the show, the young man met Herrock in the theater corridor and told him he couldn't figure out why.Herrock's answer was surprisingly simple, "Because it's another Tuesday."
So, whenever you make a new decision, don't make the mistake of sticking to a rut.Don't think that you will fail now if you have failed before, and don't think that you will succeed now if you have succeeded before.
2. Avoid Misleading
Not doing anything, making any decision, can guarantee that there will be no mistakes.Everyone is the same, often make wrong decisions in the unknown.Situations that are likely to cause people to make mistakes and be misled mainly include the following:
The situation is unknown
One manager never thought that anyone he dealt with had to remember his name.Whenever I meet for the second time, if I find that the other party can't remember me, I always take the initiative to introduce myself, so as to avoid embarrassing people by repeating the past.
Similar situations often arise in business negotiations. Some people participate in the negotiation because they are embarrassed to bring up what they don’t know because of the formality of the first meeting.
Truth is not in the hands of the majority
Relying on the opinion of the group to make a decision is not guaranteed to be completely correct.In a discussion, it's not a good thing to have everyone sitting in a conference room saying the same thing.There must be other factors at play here.When the boss finishes speaking or colleagues speak, due to the majesty of the boss, they don't want to argue with colleagues and hurt their peace. Many people always agree with them, expressing similar or innocuous opinions.This often makes it difficult for meeting chairpersons and decision makers to understand the real situation, and making decisions based on it will naturally be divorced from reality.
This kind of thinking of following the crowd is nothing more than a mistake in understanding that most people's ideas can't be wrong.The correct way is to listen to everyone's opinions, after argumentation and thinking, and then make a decision by yourself after everyone has left.
Don't be fooled by beautiful rhetoric
There are two investment cooperation projects, one has an 80% chance of success and the other has a 20% chance of failure, which one do you choose?In fact, the chances of success and failure of these two projects are equal, but the former only mentions success, while the latter emphasizes failure.But in common sense, most people will always choose the former, the reason is very simple, the word success is pleasing to the ears and makes people excited.Smart salesmen will use their eloquence to describe the high quality and complete functions of products to customers, and sell them by saying "good".But a smart customer will not be tempted by this superficial phenomenon and marketing techniques, he will make his own decision to buy or not to buy based on various observations.
Not too superstitious experience
Many businessmen always like to use old methods to deal with new problems.The glory of the past has become history, and it is not necessarily suitable for the current changed world.If you still use the old framework to guide the current business, expecting to find common ground, it will only make you lose more opportunities to understand new things and grasp their particularities.
Do not ignore base numbers
Everyone in charge has this experience. Making friends with grassroots employees will allow you to get more information that cannot be heard among senior employees.Really accurate reports should come from each workshop section.Many managers tend to ignore the role of reports. As long as the information and figures from various parties are in line with their own ideas, they think that there is no problem in business, and they are unwilling to spend more time digging deeper information. material.For example, the general manager asked the sales manager: "How is the car sales this month?" He replied: "The market is good, and 50 cars have been reserved by customers." If he has more information, he will report that this month's sales How does volume compare to last month or year-ago, and how does it compare to competitors.Judging from the selection of 50 cars, which brand and price the car market is optimistic about, which promotion method should be adopted to sell more cars and so on.These situations should always be mastered by everyone who undertakes sales tasks.
3. Proceed with caution
Now we have entered an era of rapid development, so we place special emphasis on speed.This is an era when everything seems to be done much faster than in the past.
Of course, one of the main reasons for the rapid development of today's era is the application of a large number of high-tech.Express mail, faxes, supersonic airplanes, modems and mobile phones, to name a few, have dramatically increased business productivity and the speed at which we can respond to information.
At the same time, we must realize that although technology and people tend to ask us to work faster and faster, this phenomenon in itself does not mean that this is a good phenomenon.Some people think that if some things are done slowly, the effect may be better. We should stop, think about it calmly, and then do it.
For example, hiring decisions should be made slowly and carefully.Because, if you want to invite a stranger to work in your company, you need to make a decision after you have the necessary understanding of this person.However, as is often the case, people tend to tend to make hiring decisions as quickly as possible.Because they desperately need someone to fill some of the vacant positions.
The allocation of high-tech equipment is another area that needs to wait and see, because the result of waiting and seeing is much better than direct intervention.For example, five years ago, a personal computer cost nearly ten thousand yuan to buy.Now, you only need to spend 5,000 yuan to buy one, and its performance is much better than before.Most people understand this truth.However, no one can suppress the desire to buy these things, and wait until the price drops one day before buying.
Although we all know that some things need to be done slowly, in fact, we don't do it.Here, it must be reminded that it is beneficial to take some work slowly.
For decision-makers, after the decision-making plan is determined, the decision-making is not complete.On the contrary, this is only part of it, and how to implement the decision is still a very critical part.It's like boiling water to 99°C but lacking the last 1°C of heat, it's still not boiling water.Without a feasible method of implementing a decision, the decision will inevitably fail, so some skills must be mastered.
1. able to persist
In any business, you may encounter many unexpected difficulties after making a decision.At this time, the courage to insist on your own decision-making is the first priority.The future and success of a career also lies in the firmness and perseverance of the will, which is especially important for decision makers.
2. Learn to change
Adhere to their own decision-making must also grasp certain prerequisites.When one's own decision-making is obviously biased, one cannot insist on being wrong, but should decisively seek a change strategy.Many leaders feel that changing their minds is a sign of incompetence.In fact, on the contrary, it is wise to change the wrong mind in time.This will not only not be ridiculed but also won people's respect.Of course, there is a lot of "art" in how to change one's decision-making satisfactorily.
choose a certain time
If the situation changes, there is nothing wrong with changing your mind in a minute.But before changing your decision, it's better to pick the best time.
In general, the longer the time between making a decision and changing it, the more acceptable the change will be.因为，时间会使环境发生变化，环境又能让人发生变化，而且时间久了，人们也就渐渐淡忘了你以前所持的态度。
设想在一次会议开始时你赞成某事，而会议结束时你又持否定意见。那么在别人眼里你没准会是个反复无常的怪物。而要是在会议期间，情况发生了新变化，那么在别人看来，你这种改变实在是明智之举。
同样，在以上情况下，把宣布改变决策的工作放到会后，效果会更理想。你改变想法之前，经历的时间越长，你的新决策就越显成熟，看起来像是经过了深思熟虑。而且时间一长，人们会觉得那是你作出的一个新决策，而不是什么改变主意的结果。
列出充足的理由
明确地罗列出你之所以改变决策的理由，别人就不会认为你朝令夕改。理由越多，大家就越相信这不是个草率的决策。这个道理再明显不过了，可是许多管理人员只凭直觉妄下断言。当部下问起为什么改变想法的时候，得到的只是诸如“因为我想这么做”或“我愿意”那样硬邦邦的回答。从这些回答里，人们只能看到一个飞扬跋扈的老板的形象。
总之，当你自己都说不清楚为什么要改变决策的时候，最好不要急于改变自己的想法。
试着作一次武断的决定
假如你既没有拖延时间的借口，又找不出足够的理由，在这样的情况下，不妨试着作一次武断的决定。显然，这样的决策一旦宣布，肯定会招来一片质疑，可对你来说理由总归是有的。
也许你手头掌握着一系列事实促使你改变决策。可现在时机未到，还不能把它们公诸于世。也许这样的决策会损害公司的短期利益，但实质上却是个大有可为的长线投资。也许这完全是个根据事实推测出来的结论。在这样的情况下，你只好武断一次，尽管这种做法看上去不会很受欢迎，既称不上公道，又不易被人理解。
但你可以请求周围的人相信你。如果在此之前，你一直特别善于运用前面提到的两种改变决策的艺术，那么偶尔地武断一次也无伤大雅。
1.决策者要有果断的素质
果断，说明了决策者的思想高度集中，是敏锐反应力的体现，他对信息的吸收和消化，对经验的综合和应用，对未来的估计和推测，都能在短时间内完成。
要达到这一点，作为决策者就必须对事件有迅速作出判断的能力和选择的能力，有敢于对事件的过程和后果负责的精神和能力。顾虑重重，怕这怕那，畏畏缩缩，“一看，二慢，三通过”的人，不可能成为一个好的决策者。因为，在看和慢的过程中，时代在前进，情况在变化，在等的过程中，可能会产生更多的风险。
一个企业的决策人，面对形势的变化应当知道如何迅速采取措施，拿出一名决策人所应具备的魄力与勇气。不可瞻前顾后，患得患失，或者过分求全责备，凡事都求万无一失。
历史上有名的“鸿门宴”，就给人们树立了一面极好的镜子：项羽被刘邦、陈平等人的花言巧语所迷惑，迟迟不肯摔杯为令，除去刘邦这个心腹大患。刘邦虎口脱险之后笼络人心，积蓄力量，很快就与项羽展开逐鹿中原的楚汉之争，结果项羽垓下大败，自刎而死，留下了千古遗恨。
美国着名的麦肯锡管理咨询公司，曾经对管理卓有成效的37家大公司进行调查，结果表明，获得成功有8个条件，其中一条就是领导者行动要果断，办事要有魄力。如果决策者犹豫不决，模棱两可，就无法动员部下。只有自己坚定，才能使别人坚定。只有自己充满必胜的信念，部下才可能和你共同去奋斗。
当然，果断决不是草率，更不是鲁莽。草率和鲁莽是愚昧无知和粗心大意的伴生物，而果断则是对信息做了充分加工，作出十分迅速准确的反应，是“短、平、快”式的深思熟虑，草率和鲁莽与果断是截然不同、格格不入的。
广东某市一家房地产开发公司，1991年6月投资上亿元准备在广珠公路南侧的1000多亩土地建造广东面积最大的花园别墅楼群。公司计划很庞大，准备将这些花园别墅出售给那些大款巨富们。但不幸的是，前期投资刚刚到位，1993年6月，即传来国家银根紧缩的消息。公司看清形势，立即与市政府联系，经过批准将这块地的使用权化整为零，公开拍卖。由于地价低，再加上外商看好该市前景，土地使用权陆续卖出，但公司也遭受了300多万的损失。公司老板却不以为然，认为壮士断腕值得，丢小注，保大注，不然遭受损失更大。果然，1994年，广东房地产暴跌，其他房地产公司全部遭受巨亏。
2.向智囊团虚心求教
历史进入现代后，在社会化大生产和商品经济日益发达的条件下，智囊人员的作用日显重要，并朝着专业化的方向发展。现代科学决策的一个重要特点，就是“断”、“谋”分家，智囊团参与决策，对决策方案的科学性和可靠性负直接责任。但是，领导者始终是决策的主人，居于主导的地位，对决策的后果负总责。在现代科学决策中，如何正确处理领导者与智囊人员的关系，做到领导决策与专家决策相结合呢？
由于科学知识日新月异，客观形势变化神速，日理万机的领导，不可能通晓一切，洞察秋毫。因而运用各种专家搜集信息资料，提供多种方案，进行决策准备，对决策科学化是绝对不可缺少的。领导者在认清这一点后，要切实端正对待智囊人员工作的态度，为他们进行决策工作提供良好的环境和条件。智囊人员不同于秘书班子，他们的决策工作，不是听从领导者的命令去按图索骥，而是站在科学的立场上探讨决策对象的客观规律，领导者要保证他们能够进行相对独立的研究，切忌由领导者先框一个结论，要求专家去找“事实”或引用“科学道理”来论证。在智囊人员的工作过程中，切忌千方百计给予各种暗示，甚至使用某种压力逼迫拟制的方案朝着自己的主观意图发展，否则将是十分有害的。
现代领导者还应做到闻异则喜，充分尊重专家们创造性的劳动，虚心听取他们的真知灼见，允许专家同自己唱对台戏。如果专家们没有独立见解，人云亦云，或者察言观色，见风使舵，那绝不是一个好的智囊。
智囊团在国外已有悠久的历史。17世纪中叶，首先在路易十四的法国军队中出现了参谋长，为军队出主意；19世纪初，普鲁士将军香霍斯特在军队中进行了体制改革，建立了参谋本部制，用参谋的集体智慧来帮助统帅进行决策；1818年，英国建筑学家约翰·斯梅顿成立了英国土木工程师学会，联合承担一些咨询业务；1828年上任的美国总统杰克逊，因常和他的幕僚们在白宫的厨房内讨论国事，故有“厨房内阁”之称；1919年，美国总统胡佛建议成立了美国胡佛研究所。
3.听听下属怎么说
领导者做到虚心纳谏，虚心求谏，多方面听取下属建议和意见，只有这样，下属才能够为你认真地出谋划策，尽心尽力工作。一旦能够达到这样一种工作的状态，往往能够收到事半功倍的效果，因此领导者应当仔细考虑这个方面，并以制定切实可行的制度与程序来确保自己始终处于一种兼听广纳的地位。
在决策过程中，谁都有可能出现一些认识上、判断上和执行上的错误。这并不重要，重要的是决策者能不能及时地发现、正确地认识、勇敢地承认、坚决而及时地纠止错误。要做到这一点，一条重要的途径，就是发扬民主作风。通过检查、相互批评和自我批评，既可以使我们及早地发现问题，也可以使我们更全面、更深刻地认识问题，统一思想，加强团结，为及时地纠正错误、修正决策创造条件。开展批评与自我批评，应当采取主动，首先作自我批评，要启发人家批评，要听人家批评，要经得起人家的批评，要豁达大度，从谏如流。
从某种意义上讲，没有批评与自我批评，就没有民主；没有民主，意见就难以从群众中听到真实的意见和建议，就不可能制定出好的路线、方针、政策和方法。
常言道：“无不可用之兵，只有不可用之将。”一个领导者若无法妥善分配资源，或者无法制定正确的决策，即使拥有再优秀的团队也是无用。因此，领导者在制定决策的过程中，要善于采纳建言，并适时征询下属意见，就算下属对决策没有异议，领导者也不应就此以为自己的计划完美无误，或是受到了众人的认可。因为下属多半会碍于领导者的职场优势，而选择不当面提出批评，所以领导者应鼓励下属发表不同意见。
至于如何鼓励下属发言，领导者可以多用疑问句，少用肯定句，不要让下属感到压迫，与此同时，也可主动提出自己对决策的疑虑，引导下属提出见解。当领导者广纳下属的意见后，就能修正自己拟定的方案，明确制定出更完善的决策。另外值得注意的是，当领导者要采用某位下属的意见时，也要顾及意见未被采用者的感受。领导者要肯定其他下属的辛苦付出，再以委婉的语气说明意见不能被采用的原因，并且尽量不要让下属们产生“胜利者和失败者”的感受，否则他们彼此之间将会产生隔阂或心结，进而划分为两派不同的小团队。
善于听取员工意见，是企业走向成熟的根本途径，日本富士电机制造公司正是因为深谙此道，才不断发展，成为世界的名牌公司。该公司非常注意用人，充分发挥每一个员工的聪明才智。近年来，每年平均每位员工提出的改进工作的建议多达99项，占日本第一。而且这些建议数的计算只限于实现以后有效果的建议，那些只提想法，没有付诸实施的，或者实行之后没有成效的建议数不计在内。因此，富士电机制造公司的建议数全是高质量的。该公司发动员工提出改进工作的建议的具体做法是：
首先，积极开展集体活动。从1969年起，该公司就开展高质量运动，即以小团队活动提高工作质量和可靠性。自从公司开展了小团队活动以后，在员工中形成了这样一种气氛，哪怕一项也好、两项也好，都争先恐后地提出改进工作建议。其次，公司提出了目标，以便调动员工的积极性。如“每人一年要提出100项建议，改进的目标是节约能源和改善工作”。由于目标和对象都很明确，建议也就容易被提出来。最后，对每个员工的建议，不论大小，公司都认真对待，一视同仁。根据建议的适用性和效果，分别评定为特别、优秀、优良、A、B、C、建议等7个级别。建议和C级奖由车间委员会表扬；B级以上提交厂小组委员会，在那里再次进行评定和选拔，并对B级和A级的建议提出者给予表扬；优良、优秀和特别三种奖则由公司进行表扬，发给一定的物质鼓励。这样，该公司员工的积极性大增，迸发出无限的活力，从而使富士公司在激烈的竞争中立于不败之地。
4.理性地思考问题
每一位主管，都必须为个人一时的冲动付出代价。当你能以沉稳理性的方式来处理人际困扰、业务压力及危机事件时，就会赢得员工的敬重与信任。领导能力的理性展现，强调条理清晰的思考、具体有效的处置，以及周全圆融的协调的人际关系，不是急躁地兜售个人专业与智慧，也不是逞口舌之能事，或蛮横地运用权势打压员工，更不是无意义的激动与忙乱。
领导决策时，要通盘考虑，不能一切从个人主观出发来对待出现的事情。考虑问题出于个人因素，则往往会牺牲全局的利益；一味草率用事，最终会葬送一切成果。做决定前一定要三思而后行，理智地表现出不冲动，不为情绪所左右，不为环境所控制，综合考虑全局，客观地进行分析。
做到理性决策，就要在平时注意培养自制的习惯，不为情绪所左右，思想要时时处于主动。根据内外环境，主动调整思考的角度和方法。一个很理智的人还会把目标做得细致、完整，既有短期、中期、长期的目标，又有实现的步骤，这样可以排除很多干扰，减少情绪波动、私人感情和亲友的影响，最大限度地实现目标。草率决断的现象很多，教训也很深刻。在商业、做人、处世中都会经常遇到，注意克服草率用事的弊端，才能更好地使个人的事业得到发展。
5.有时候你需要依赖直觉
当我们把目光更多地注视到科学决策的时候，往往会忽略直觉，其实，直觉本身也应该是科学研究的对象。在现实经济生活中，直觉具有不能够有理有据地进行解释或者判断的属性。直觉尽管不是一个非常复杂的逻辑判断的过程，但是任何珍贵的有价值的直觉背后，恰恰有千锤百炼的科学积累。
徐文荣是浙江着名的民营企业横店集团的老板，他高小毕业，是个典型的乡镇企业家。在十几年前，西北的一所高等院校研制了一种磁性材料，在产品化的过程中缺钱，要200万，这在当时可不是个小数目。他们找到了徐文荣，徐文荣竟然没有太多迟疑，就当场拍板给钱。事后，有经济学家问他：你也不懂什么叫磁性材料，也不是搞这个行当的，你怎么敢投资？老人家的回答很令人吃惊：我就不相信，它这么一所知名大学，从我这么个农民手里拿走200万，就什么好处也不给我。是什么在起作用？直觉！如果等你讨论来讨论去、论证来论证去，很多机会就可能错过了。后来，磁性材料成为横店集团迄今依旧的支柱产业，在产量方面是全国最高的。
当年，杰克·韦尔奇在中国寻找合作伙伴，首先到了上海。在那里，他跟一个国有企业谈得很好，交流得很到位。最后，韦尔奇说：“我能否去你的办公室看看？”对方说可以。于是两人从会议室沿着走廊到他的办公室。进去之后，韦尔奇一言不发。这位领导说：“韦尔奇先生，咱们是否可以签约了？”“No！”事后给出的答案是：从会议室到办公室沿路过去，门口挂着30多块牌子，这绝对是一个结构臃肿的企业，不会高效率。这就是直觉，听起来近乎武断，可是在市场竞争如此激烈的当代，有时候确实由不得你从容不迫。
看起来瞬间的决定，背后都是千锤百炼。有时候会有闪失，但是如果有价值的灵感在瞬息之间捕捉住了，就会给你带来巨大的价值。过分依赖逻辑或者切实的感觉，可能导致智力上的冷漠和迟钝。直觉更是一种洞察力，它是领导力的杰出表现，绝对不可能是空穴来风。当然，过分采用直觉，也可能导致神经质和武断。把逻辑和直觉结合起来，能够使领导力具有更加广阔的感觉反应的有效范围。因而，我们在日常领导力的锤炼过程中，要更具有方向性地去锤炼自己的洞察力、判断力和想象力。
6.要把决策方案抓紧落实，付诸行动
似乎没有哪位领导者肯倒过来，用多半的时间决策，用少量的时间去实施。如果真的这样便会遭人冷眼了。勤于动脑而疏于动手的干部很难受人欢迎。不管你承不承认，判断干部的标准，理性上几乎所有人都把决策能力放在首位。但在感性上，又几乎所有人都把操作能力放在优先位置。勤奋、效率是人们判断干部最直接的标准。自然，勤奋是动手、动腿，而不是动脑。再好的决策，如果不能抓紧落实，也不过是一纸空谈。
抓决策落实，体现的是一种优良的工作作风。
不说空话，不图虚名，不搞形式主义的花架子，扎扎实实地干，千方百计取得实实在在的成效。这就是说，目标方向确定以后，领导者就要脚踏实地地去干，认真组织实施。在实施过程中，逐一解决每个实际问题。只有这样，才能干出成果，计划再周密，政策再对头，那也是纸上谈兵，绝不会成为现实。有些领导者就犯有这种毛病。他们整天都是在开会，研究决策、制定计划、宣传动员，表面上忙得团团转，可就是不见实际行动，不见严肃认真的检查、指导、考核，“雷声大、雨点小”，一阵热潮过后，便虎头蛇尾、不了了之。毫不客气地说，这纯粹是“空忙”、“瞎忙”，根本谈不上什么效率。所以，只有在落实上下功夫，提高工作效率才有现实可能性。
抓决策落实，是决策的逻辑延伸和继续。
远东高级研究学院院长成中英先生在为他人的着作做的一篇题词中写道：“决而后策，当机立断；策而后决，运筹帷握。决不离策，策不离决，有无相生，动而愈出，其体无限，其用无穷。”一般人只把决策理解为从发现问题到作出方案选择的过程，而忽视决策的实施阶段。事实上，在实施阶段，也就是在决策落实过程中还有许多大大小小的决策问题。如在“抗美援朝”的决策作出后，还有“谁做总司令”、“什么时候开赴朝鲜”、“打到什么程度为止”等一系列问题；这些问题不落实，“抗美援朝”只能是一种口号或愿望。如果说“抗美援朝”是分析环境基础上的“策而后决”，那么后来的系列问题则是“决而后策”。没有这一系列“策”的选择和“策”的落实，决策显然是一个不完善的甚至是无效的决策。
做好宣传，真正把决策落到实处。
激发广大员工或群众的工作热情，调动其执行决策的积极性，就需要做好宣传发动工作。宣传发动工作必须领先一步，为领导工作的落实鸣锣开道，做好舆论准备。领导抓决策的落实当然要求真务实，真抓实干，但领导工作的落实，最终要靠群众的创造性劳动来实现。如何才能推动广大群众同心同德，苦干巧干，就要善于做好大家的思想政治工作，这就是务实。不做、不会做或者做不好思想政治工作的领导者，不是一个合格的、称职的领导者。思想政治工作实际上贯穿于整个领导活动的过程之中。许多工作落实不下去，或者不了了之，很大程度上是因为领导者动员不够，宣传不力，群众认识不明确。所以，千万不能因为“务实”而排斥“务虑”，否则，会欲速则不达。
宣传教育的过程是一个统一思想、提高认识的过程。有了统一的思想，才有统一的行动。统一思想是抓好领导工作落实的前提，而要统一广大群众的思想就必须通过有效的宣传手段和方法让群众了解目标，认识政策，明确自己在实现目标的过程中所承担的责任和义务，增强工作的责任心和自觉性。舆论宣传如能入情入理，既能深人人心，又能鼓舞士气，就会提高群众执行的积极性，减少执行中的错误行动和抵触情绪。松下公司长期坚持对员工进行危机教育、集体主义教育和自我否定教育，就是有效的“治气”、“励志”的宣传发动工作。
管理学专家巴纳德指出：“正式组织要有三个条件：第一有明确的目标；第二有协作的意愿；第三要有有效的沟通。而上述三个条件都需要宣传发动工作的作用。首先，离开宣传教育，组织不可能自发产生被其成员统一理解和自觉接受的目标，只可能你有你的理解，他有他的理解；其次，离开宣传教育，组织成员也不可能产生持久的协作意愿；最后，离开宣传教育，组织中也不可能有真正有效的沟通。宣传不彻底、不及时、不准确，还会带来组织秩序的混乱。”
决策方案的贯彻，要做到满意即可。
在我们已经习惯了的思维中，对任何决策都喜欢找到一个最佳甚至完美的答案。可是，在错综复杂的现实生活中，最佳或最美的答案是不存在的。美国着名管理学家西蒙的一个重要思想是“满意即可”。他认为寻找最佳方案是不可能的。在你掌握了80%的信息、资料，可以做决策时，还希冀于掌握剩余20%的信息、资料，而搜集这20%的信息、资料更为困难，就往往要多花一倍的时间。而等你搜集到那所谓20%的信息、资料时，情况却早已发生了变化，又出现了许多新的信息和资料，你手中那80%的信息也过期了。所以，追求最佳甚至完美的答案，这种思维取向本身就错了。
直到今天，领导人凭经验拍脑袋的做法仍然司空见惯。决策出了问题难以得到及时纠正，只有等到出现了大问题，才来事后堵漏洞，或者拨乱反正，而这时已经悔之晚矣。
不论是企业领导还是政府官员，每天都要做出很多决策。决策成功者大有人在，决策失误者也屡见不鲜。仅有美好的愿望，而没有科学的决策方案，结果不但要碰破自己的脑壳，引导一群人也碰破了脑壳。
碰破脑壳的决策失误常常见之于这样一些情形：
1.轻率拍板
一个人的一生中，难免有这样或那样的轻率决定和行动。但是，作为一个拥有决策权的领导者来说，凭经验拍板，轻率地作出决定，往往会带来意想不到的严重后果。
轻率拍板作出决策，往往有以下表现：
决策者急于求成，想吹糠见米，闻风下雨，不考虑前因后果，更不做可行性研究；
决策者没有远见，只图眼前利益，不考虑长远利益；为蝇头小利而蠢蠢欲动，结果占小便宜吃大亏；
自身能力较差，经验不足，知识面窄，或比较主观武断，不善于听取他人意见，不愿意做深入调查研究，凭经验吃饭，不撞南墙不回头。
决策者心血来潮，失去理性而妄断，对正在发生的事情缺乏了解，一时感情冲动而仓促决策，从而带来很大的损失。
1939年，德