Chapter 29 Take a look at the probabilities and take your worries away

Many people ask, where do our worries and troubles come from?I tell you, worries and troubles come from their imagination and not from reality.Eliminating worries and annoyances sometimes does not require much adjustment by the person himself. As long as you figure out a mathematical problem-probability, you will eliminate worries.If people think about what happened in the past and look at the probability of it happening, about 90% of the worries will clear up naturally. I grew up on a Missouri farm and remember one day standing on a ladder helping my mother pick cherries when I burst into tears.My mother asked, "Dale, why are you crying?" I said, "I'm afraid I'll fall and die."

"How come, honey? You're only a foot off the ground," said the mother. It's ridiculous that I think about it now, but in those days I was filled with apprehension. When I was a child, I was always full of worries, and there were different worries throughout the year: I was afraid of falling flowers in spring, I was afraid of being killed by lightning in summer, I was worried about my mother’s vineyard failure in autumn, and I was worried about severe cold in winter... I was afraid of a child in the village. The Bachelor called Sam, because he once threatened to cut off my big ear.I had different worries in different grades: As a teenager, I wanted to approach girls but worried they would laugh at me.When I was young, I even worried that no one would marry me; when I got married, I didn't know what to say to my wife.I pictured us getting married in a country church, and then driving back to the farm in a carriage...but what should I say on the way back in the carriage? …I’m so annoyed with problems that don’t seem like problems right now.

With the growth of age and deepening of social experience, I gradually found that 99% of the things I worried about never happened.For example, I said that I was afraid of being struck by lightning. Now I know that according to the survey of scientists, the probability of being killed by lightning at any time is only one in 350,000. Of course, I'm talking about my own teenage worries, but many people's worries are about as absurd as mine.If we measure our fears by probability, nine out of ten can be ruled out. Lloyd's & Co. is the most famous insurance company in the world, and it is said that they are making money because they are sure that the things people worry about rarely happen.Insurance companies are betting that the feared catastrophe will never happen.Calling them insurance, we can also say that they are "gambling", they win on events with low probability of compensation, and this insurance company has been in business for two hundred years.If people had changed, I dare say the company would still be in business because the disasters that people fear don't happen as often as people think.

A careful study of probability reveals many surprising facts.As for myself, if I knew that I would have to fight a campaign in the next five years, I would be in a state of panic.I'll spend my savings and get my affairs in order early.I would say, "Maybe I won't make it back alive, and I should enjoy my remaining years." But that's not the case. According to the probability of things happening, a person who lives from 50 to 55 is the same as going to war. The same danger is deadly.I mean, in general, the death rate of a man after his destiny is the same as the death rate of 163,000 soldiers who participated in the battle.

U.S. Navy Commander Ernest Joseph King used numbers based on probability to inspire courage in the Navy.The faint of heart were always terrified when recruits were assigned to those tankers.Think about it, on a ship full of high-grade gasoline, it is equivalent to standing on a pile of explosives, and few people can stroll on it. Ernest Joseph King had a way of dealing with this kind of thing, and he would publish some surveyed figures. Figures show that more than half of the 100 oil tankers that were hit by torpedoes sank into the sea, and among the oil tankers that sank into the sea, only five sank within a few minutes of being hit and did not have time to escape.That is to say, once the oil boat is attacked, the soldiers inside have enough time to jump into the sea, and the chance of dying on board is very small.After knowing these numbers, the recruits will not be so panicked, and everyone's heart is much calmer.The recruits calculate their chances of survival based on the average probability, and the chances of them dying here are very slim.That way, everyone can serve with peace of mind.Just imagine, if these recruits are made to worry about death, let them be controlled by fear all the time, even worry is enough to destroy them without enemy bombs, then the consequences will be unimaginable.

In the Second World War, when the war came, Fredrey Magnant also lay in a foxhole worrying for his life, but then he used probability to dispel his worries. During World War II, Fredrey served in a communications company.In early June 1944, the Allied forces began to land in Normandy. After Fredley and his comrades arrived in Normandy, they lurked in foxholes near Omaha Beach.The foxholes were small and cold, and Fredley felt like he was in a grave.In the middle of the night, German bombers appeared overhead and dropped bombs. The sound of the explosion made ears buzz, and Fredrey was so scared that he almost peed his pants.For several nights he could not sleep at all.One is that the explosion is too loud, and the other is that I am afraid that I will be killed by a German bomb after closing my eyes.Insomnia every night made every nerve tense like a bowstring, and his spirit was about to collapse.Friedley's boss knew about his situation and told him that if he didn't try to solve this problem, he would definitely go crazy.So the boss reminded him: It's been five nights, aren't you still alive?And everyone in our group is still alive, only two people were injured.And they were not injured by German bombs, but by fragments of anti-aircraft shells fired by Allied troops.So Friedley figured out a way to keep himself from worrying: He built a cover over the pit to keep him from getting hit by the debris.He thought that unless a bomb fell directly into the pit, it would be impossible for the German bombs to destroy the pit.He even calculated that the probability of the bomb falling directly into his pit is less than one in ten thousand.

After taking these precautions, his nervous heart relaxed a lot, and after another two or three days, he completely calmed down.Even when enemy planes strike, he can sleep soundly. If we calculate the probabilities of events, I'd laugh at our worries. Mrs. Miley is a very calm and composed woman, giving the impression of being optimistic and cheerful. She is a person who has no worries.In fact, she was plagued by worry for more than ten years before she learned to conquer it. For a long time, Mrs. Miley had a bad temper and lived with high tension every day.When she was shopping at the mall, she would worry that her house was on fire and her daughter had an accident... She often rushed out of the post office when she was sending letters at the post office because of worry, and ran home to check whether her home was safe.This inexplicable anxiety led to the failure of her first marriage.

Miley's second marriage was to a lawyer who was calm and analytical.Whenever Miley is worried, her lawyer husband will persuade her: think about it carefully and see how likely it is to happen! .Once, Miley and her husband were out to play, and suddenly encountered a storm, the road became very slippery, and the car was difficult to control.Miley was worried that the car would slip into a ditch on the side of the road and asked her husband to stop and wait for the storm to pass before leaving, but the lawyer told her calmly that he was driving slowly and nothing would happen.Even if the car slips into a ditch it will be fine.Miley slowly calmed down with her husband's self-confidence and calmness.

When they arrived at their destination, at night, the two people living in the tent encountered another storm. The strong wind shook and shook the tent.This made Miley terrified, and the lawyer kept reassuring her. They had six or seven experienced guides who had camped in the mountains for 50 to 60 years, and they had never had a tent blown away.According to probability, the tent will not be blown away tonight.Even if they were blown away, they could hide in other tents.Under her husband's comfort, Mrs. Miley's spirit slowly relaxed, and she slept very peacefully that night, and nothing happened...

Since then, whenever Mrs. Miley encountered something annoying, she would tell herself that according to the probability, such a thing would not happen. Those words took away 90 percent of her worries and allowed her to live a happy, peaceful life. Having said so much, I have just one meaning: Most of our worries and troubles come from our imagination rather than reality.Let's go back to the past and see if you agree with me completely. Therefore, when you are troubled by worries, don’t worry, but calculate the probability of things happening first, check the records, and let us ask ourselves, how many chances are there for the things we are worried about to happen? Knowing this, you will no longer be plagued by worries.