Chapter 5 3 Graham

Mr. Market is indeed very enthusiastic, and every day he will tell you how much he thinks your interests are worth. Book.Graham's "Smart Investor" From the moment he first wrote about stocks on the blackboard, Buffett was deeply attracted by stocks.He had traded stocks, studied the markets, and consulted experts in hopes of understanding something—some secret inner relationship in the charts, something that could make him rich.Of course, this is no more devoted than when he searched for abandoned ticket stubs on the racetrack floor.Some stocks can be invested in, while more stocks cannot be invested.

Book.Graham opened the door to him and talked to him personally. He taught Buffett various methods to explore all kinds of possibilities in the market, and the methods he used were very suitable for Buffett to learn.Equipped with Graham's technology, Buffett can abandon the so-called oracles and use his talents. Prompted by Graham's example of character, Buffett decided to work on his own terms—full of what his father once called Emerson's "brilliant" independence. Graham was far more than Buffett's mentor. It was Graham who drew the first credible map of this amazing and daunting city-the stock market. He laid the methodological foundation for stock selection. , and before that, it was indistinguishable from the pseudoscience of gambling.Investing without Graham is like communism without Marx—principle would cease to exist.

His writings were quite original, but in his writings Graham did not fully explain what he had taught his disciples.Unlike other entrepreneurs on Wall Street, Graham opened his mind and allowed others to share his views freely.His absent-mindedness—money meant nothing to him—had aroused Wall Street's interest.In a field of narrow-mindedness, Graham was a classical scholar.He was a student of Latin and Greek, a translator of Spanish poetry, and a writer for a Broadway play—a play that ran for four days. It's odd that someone who could revolutionize the investing industry like him spends so much of his time tinkering with eccentric hobbies and inventions.He invented a new type of slide rule, for example, and a "more functional" piece of furniture (which is puzzling, since Graham never even touched a hammer).He's short, with piercing blue eyes and a thick mouth—"a funny little guy, kind of ugly," one partner puts him—but he sparkles with intelligence.

In London in 1894, he came into this world as Benjamin.Grossbaum.When he was just one year old, his father moved the family to New York to start a branch of the Chinese import business. However, when he was 9 years old, his father died, and his mother invested her savings in the stock market, which was wiped out in the Great Panic of 1907.He found a temporary job.While studying at Brooklyn Boys High School, his grades were outstanding.Later, he entered Columbia University. After graduating in 1914, three departments offered him job opportunities: English, Mathematics, and Philosophy.But he took the advice of the dean of the college and came to Wall Street.

Graham started at the bottom job, writing stock prices on a blackboard for $2 a week.There were no security analysts in those days, only "statisticians."Soon, he was proclaiming himself an investor and writing.By the late 1920s, he was giving lectures on finance outside of work. The lectures he gave on Wall Street reflected his fondness for geometry.He is passionate about symmetrical investing - inventing a set of Euclidean principles to apply to the stock market. Graham's methods were odd in the speculative atmosphere of the late 1920s—he always tried to Look for companies that are so cheap that there is little risk, such as in 1926 when he discovered that an oil transporter, the Northern Oil Pipeline Company, owned a portfolio of railroad bonds worth $95 a share in addition to its pipeline assets, and its The stock has a market price of only $65.Graham bought 2,000 shares and suggested that the company sell its bond holdings to rediscover the buried value in the portfolio.

However, management under Rockefeller's control rejected the proposal.Then Graham waged a representation war and was finally elected to the board of directors, Northern Oil Pipeline finally capitulated, the bonds were liquidated, and a $70/share dividend was paid. As of 1929, Graham's partnership firm "Benjamin Graham Joint Accounts" The capital reached 2.5 million, and Graham was also immersed in the joy of success. Of course, Wall Street was already full of rich people at that time.Speculators have driven prices into the sky.In these extraordinary years, the unfortunate Owen of Yale University.Fisher declared that "stock prices have reached a seemingly permanent plateau."

Graham was very cautious, and when the big crisis hit, Ben.The 20% loss on the Graham joint account is tolerable.By 1930, Graham, like others, thought the worst was over, and he borrowed money to invest in stocks.Later, the bottom support was broken again. "The only thing that characterized that great crisis was" as John.Kenneth.Galbraith observed that "bad news followed bad news, and it got worse and worse." Even the savviest financiers—those who watched the debacle with dispassionate eyes—were later involved.By 1932, the joint accounts had fallen by as much as 70 percent, and Graham was on the verge of bankruptcy.

His family is leaving their garden-like two-story house in Beresford and moving into a modest apartment that will soon be vacated behind the nearby El Dorado.His wife, a dance teacher, had to go back to work.Graham was also ready to give up.But Jerome.A relative of Newman's, who was also part of Graham's gang, put in $75,000, enough to keep the company afloat.When "Security Analysis" came out in 1934, its 40-year-old author had not received any payment for a full five years. In the introduction to the book, Graham bluntly admits that investing in common stocks seems to be a "discredited" thing to do.During the market's recent downturn, one-third of U.S. industry was being sold for less than its liquidation value.The pundits who a few years ago thought of Wall Street as a place of milk and honey are now advising that "such stocks are not investments at all."Gerald. M. Loeb, a reviewer known for his best-selling book "Investing to Survive" believes that it is impossible to invest profitably.If so.The Jones Industrial Average was 381.7 in 1929 and only 41.22 in 1932, so who can say what the "true value" is! "I don't think anyone really knows," he declared, when a particular stock is "cheap" or "expensive."On the contrary, Loeb believes that "speculation is necessary to predict future trends."

What really matters, Loeb stresses, is not corporate profitability but public psychology: The importance of taking into account people's general sentiments, hopes and opinions - and the effect they have on security prices - cannot be overemphasized. However, how to measure public sentiment?The main way is to track the stock price itself, to "watch the market", if the stock price falls, it should be sold, and quickly; if the stock price rises, it should be bought.It's not enough to just buy a bargain - you have to buy it "just starting to appreciate". If Loeb hadn't captured the paradox that hundreds of thousands of investors are reacting to each other

And try to be one step ahead of others, then Graham and Dodd will not fail to grasp this. Stock speculation is basically A trying to judge what B, C, and D will think, and B, C, and D are making the same judgment in turn. "Security Analysis" gives a way to escape this trap.Graham and Dodd urge investors to focus not on the market machines but on the businesses behind the proof-of-stake.By paying attention to earnings, assets, future prospects, and the like, investors can develop an idea of ​​a company's "intrinsic value" independent of its market price. They believe that the market is not a "weighing scale" that can accurately measure value.On the contrary, it is a "voting machine". The decisions made by countless people are a mixture of rationality and emotion. In many cases, these decisions are far from rational value judgments.The secret to investing is to invest when prices are well below intrinsic value and to trust that the market trend will turn back.

Since the Great Recession was far from over, it became a critical time to test people's loyalty to the market, with shares of many companies marked down for less than the cash in their bank accounts was worth.But Graham, being a classicist, realized that Wall Street's downturn was part of a very human cycle. Huge profits should be turned into equally huge losses, new theories should be developed and then cast into doubt, wild optimists should be drowned in deep despair, all in strict adherence to ancient traditions. Graham dissected common stocks, corporate bonds, and speculative preferred securities (what Michael Milken called junk bonds) like a biologist dissecting frogs.At first glance, "Securities Analysis" at that time① was a textbook written for a discipline that was under construction.But as the book was written in the midst of the madness of 1929 and its aftermath, it is also a call to action against the evils of speculators.In this sense, it is completely an innovation.Loeb's speculators see the stock as a thin piece of paper, a piece of paper worth more or less than what the next person to take over will bid.He's targeting what's expected of the next guy, and the next guy.Graham and Dodd investors, on the other hand, regard stock as a share of a business whose value should always correspond to the value of the entire business. Incredibly, Wall Street has never asked the question, "How much will this business sell for?" This is the question Graham and Dodd ask to guide stock valuation.It's not an exact science, but (the point is) one doesn't need to be precise -- all one needs is the ability to spot the occasional company that is priced well below its value. To use a simple analogy, it is possible by inspection to determine that a woman is too old to vote without knowing her age, or a man is so heavy that he doesn't even know his weight, leaving one troublesome problem unsolved Yes, what if you buy a cheap stock and it gets cheaper?The authors concede that if prices are sometimes wrongly set, they take a "very disturbing period" to correct. The answer to that question emerged a year before Buffett came to Columbia. The Intelligent Investor condenses Graham's philosophy into a "margin of safety."An investor, he said, should maintain a spread between what he is willing to pay and what he estimates the stock is worth -- a large spread. ① The New York Association of Securities Analysts was established three years later in 1937, and Graham was one of the founders. price.This is the same as leaving some room for possible bias in driving a car.If the margin is large enough, investors should be safe.But what if he doesn't?The answer is: stocks will continue to fall.Assuming nothing changes in the business, Graham said, investors should stop relying on market mechanics, no matter how dire the situation. Indeed, an investor who becomes overly discouraged by market declines and indulges himself in rash selling at very low prices will always turn his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage.Basic advantage?Most investors have no idea that they have a fundamental advantage, and Graham explained it with an analogy: Imagine that you spend $1,000 to own a small portion of stock in a private business.One of your collaborators, "Mr. Market," is a very enthusiastic man.Every day he tells you how much he thinks your share is worth, and then further promises you to buy your share or sell you some more shares on this basis.Sometimes his valuation views seem to make sense... On the other hand, "Mr. Market" walks away with his enthusiasm or panic, so what he proposes becomes stupid to you. The real investor is in this particular situation where he can take advantage of the daily market price or ignore it—"Mr. Market" keeps bringing back a new price. For Buffett, these views are as instructive as the Rosetta Stone of ancient Egypt.He had used all the speculative techniques, he had done stock tips, he had played with Magee watches--system after system, in the name of following the trend.Now he has a method of investing that saves him from trying to copy "B, C, and D"—one that simply uses the principles of independence he learned from his father.Buffett sees it as a new discovery, like St. Paul on his way to Damascus.So he found his idol easily. While at Columbia, Buffett found Graham's personality contagious, and he looked the same as Edward. G. Robinson is very similar, and his lectures are also full of drama.In one class, Graham described two hugely different balance sheets, A and B, which turned out to be Boeing's—but they were at different moments in the history of aircraft manufacturing. That's all. In 1950, Graham had 20 students, most of whom were much older than Buffett, and some of them had already worked in the Wall Street stock market, but interestingly, the lectures became a two-way seminar.Graham took a Socratic approach to lecturing, asking a question, and before he could speak, the 20-year-old from Omaha would raise his hand high. Graham rarely judged whether Buffett's answers were right or wrong, because he didn't want to contain the entire universe into a ball.Usually he says, "That's interesting. What kind of thinking brought you to that conclusion?" Then Buffett will explain.Just like Buffett's classmate Jack.Alexander recalled: Warren was probably the youngest in the class, but he was undoubtedly a precocious student.He has all the answers, he always raises his hand, he always sparks a discussion.He was passionate and always had more to say than anyone else. What Graham was looking for were cheap stocks—"cigar butts" or stocks that could be obtained almost for free, like cigar butts that were smoked, and perhaps had something useful in them. One of his assignments that year was to investigate the performance of stocks trading below $5.31. Buffett also learned to read every detail of financial statements and how to spot fraud in them for.More substantively, Graham taught him how to obtain an objective judgment of the value of a company's securities from its public information. Buffett's application of this knowledge is by no means limited to theory.Graham's lectures were all about real stocks, and he was never indifferent to the fact that students could profitably apply his ideas.By 1950, 56, Graham was famous, but his attitude was the same as it had been in 1930. "These smart Wall Street guys," recalled one of his students, "they all went out and lived on Ben. Graham's knowledge made a lot of money, and Ben himself didn't seem to care at all." Graham was the kind of absent-minded theory At home, sleep with a stack of note papers next to your pillow, and wear different colored shoes to work.Marshall, Buffett's contemporary and later his broker and friend.Weinberg, who had listened to Graham's class repeatedly, recalled: He always gives you some ideas.I bought Youngstown Sheet & Tube at 34 5/8 and sold it between 75 and 80.On his advice I bought General, and Easy Washing Machine.He said, "I think it's cheaper" -- this morning, right now.Silk Products was another such cheap stock.This class is enough to pay for my degree. Buffett is eager to follow in Graham's footsteps.He invested in stocks owned by Graham-Newman, Graham Investments, Inc. (Marshall, Wales, and Fashion).He also looked up his professor in Who's Who, and he found that Graham was the chairman of the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO).It is reported that GEICO is located in Washington.Buffett felt he wanted to know anything about Graham's chairmanship at GEICO, so he decided to pay a visit.As it happened, Warren's father was re-elected to Congress in 1950.So in the spring of 1951, while Warren was in his second semester at Columbia, he returned to Washington. Buffett took the train one Saturday, and the suburbs of Washington seemed desolate. He went straight to the GEICO office on 15K Street.Then, finding the door locked, he banged on it until the porter came out. "Is there anyone here besides you to talk to?" Buffett asked. The janitor said that someone was still working on the sixth floor, and then promised to call him down.Lorimer.Called downstairs, Davidson saw a young student loitering at a desk, and Davidson was a little taken aback when he began to ask him a series of questions, resulting in a conversation that lasted four hours. Davidson later recalled: After we had been talking for 15 minutes, I realized I was talking to an unusual person.He asked sharp and intelligent questions. What is GEICO?What is its method of doing business?How is his image?What is its potential to grow? He was asking questions that a good security analyst would ask.I'm the VP of Finance and he's trying to figure out what I know? Davidson knew GEICO and Graham well. GEICO was founded in 1936 by Leo.Goodwin, who had the ingenious idea of ​​selling auto insurance by direct mail order, eliminating the usual network of agents.At the same time, GEICO's sales policy is only for government employees, and this group is less than the share that applies for compensation.Low cost of sales and above-average insureds make it a successful business. In 1947, the major holders wanted to cash in on the stock and hired Davidson—then an investment broker—to sell it.At first no one cared about the stock, then in 1948 In 1999, he sold it to Graham, who recognized it as a gold mine.So Graham-Newman immediately raised $720,000—a quarter of its assets—and half of GEICO.Not long after, Graham-Newman divested its GEICO shares to its shareholders, and GEICO stock began to trade publicly.Meanwhile, Davidson had done such a good job with the sale that he convinced himself to start working for GEICO. Buffett came to New York with a huge fascination with GEICO.After a little research, he discovered that its gross profit was five times the insurance industry average.It was so profitable and profitable that it went to the experts in the insurance business—that is, B, C, and D at the time—and everyone told him that GEICO stock was overvalued.Buffett knew the facts to the contrary, but he felt they discouraged him, that they were experts, and that he had only been to a B-school. Every conscientious stock picker finds himself at such intersections.It is indeed difficult to put your own money into a seemingly absurd deal, which is why Graham's views are invaluable.He always likes to say, "You are neither right nor wrong, because people disagree with you." Choosing a stock is not based on people's whims, but facts.Buffett took that phrase to heart in part because he saw Graham as an ideal figure—like a "hero," like his father. Graham had the same effect on others.Although he was generally reticent, he had a parental affection for his students.Jack.Alexander saw Graham "almost like a father figure".This description is unusual, since it was more likely expressed by his students than by his children. In his own home, Graham was aloof, a feeling reinforced by his erratic gaze.He left his first wife to find a younger partner, and when Buffett didn't meet him, he was already with his third wife, Estelle, his former secretary.One rumor about Graham's unconventional attitude goes this way: When a young woman who had just married came to visit him one morning, the professor and Estelle were lying in bed, and Graham suggested that she come up and play. Graham's children found him repulsive, especially after he lost his 9-year-old son.They know him only through his mind and the way he walks around Central Park wearing a hat and holding a cane.Once his son Benjamin. Jr. asked him a simple question about high school Latin, and his father responded by reciting a speech by Cicero from memory, as if giving a lecture.He was impatient with small talks and would often slip out to read in the middle of his own dinner parties. But in the 1950s anyone who could be Graham's student placed himself in a special position.Wall Street is full of "cigar butts" and all one has to do is to use tools and brains to identify them.To would-be money managers, Graham and Dodd set off a wave of expansive heat at Columbia University, like young 20th-century writers sitting in Parisian amateur cafés not far from Hemingway. The shock felt at the table is the same. Buffett quickly joined forces with a core of staunch Graham supporters.He worked with Fred.Steinbeck, a silent North Carolina classmate, went home together.Fred told his mother that Buffett "just eats some hamburgers and drinks some Pepsi," so it shouldn't be too much trouble.Then Buffett and Steinbeck went to Jersey City to attend Marshall.Wells' annual meeting.There they met a man named Walter who worked for Graham-Newman.Enthusiast at Schloss.The three of them went to lunch together, then got into a lively conversation about stocks, and by the end all three were exhausted. On another trip to the Wall Street Club in Midtown, Buffett met Tom.Knapp. He's an approachable Long Islander.He's been on David since.After Dodd's night class, he started chemistry Switched to stocks.Buffett and William.Ryan is also very close.William, a sincere Harvard Business School graduate, had been taking Graham's classes.Immediately after each game, the students were drawn together by their burning passion for Graham.As Buffett later observed, people either liked Graham quickly or didn't like him at all.No amount of persuasion works for a person in a particular mood.Buffett's new partner was immediately drawn.They discovered that Graham's strategy, simply put, is to use 50 cents to buy a dollar worth of securities. This strategy is effective and extremely simple, but most Wall Street investors seem to like to use the dice roll way to do it.They started out as a crowd and gradually gravitated toward Buffett, who was quick-witted, likable, and—as they all knew—always one step ahead.Knapp's first impression of him: "Buffett knows almost any balance sheet on the New York Stock Exchange." Oddly enough, when Buffett graduated in 1951, both Graham and his father talked him out of entering the stock market.After experiencing the big crisis, they each have a fear of the second disaster.Graham pointed to the exception this year, Dow.The Jones Index drops below 200 at some point every year.Why not delay entering Wall Street until after the second crisis, and get a steady job with Procter & Gamble in the meantime, suggests the figure? That's bad advice—it goes against Graham's creed not to try to predict the market.In fact, Dow.The Jones Index never fell below 200 again. "I had $10,000," Buffett later recalled, "If I had followed their advice, I might still only have $10,000." However, Buffett will not wait any longer.he once got graham in + The only A in Columbia's 22 years of coaching, he made an offer that seemed irresistible: work for Graham-Newman for free. But Graham politely declined.These were the days when Jews were shut out by non-Jewish firms on Wall Street, and Graham was willing to give them some opportunities. (Morgan Stanley didn't hire the first Jew until 1963).No one knows whether Buffett knew why Graham did it then or in hindsight, but when he did, he was shocked.One of his friends said it was a test of endurance for him. Buffett never looked for work elsewhere on Wall Street—that is, for people he didn't know.This time, he returned home again.The National Bank of Omaha offered him a job, but Buffett declined, preferring the familiar environment of his father's trading department, Buffett-Falk & Co.A friend of Howard asked him, "Are you going to work for Buffett & Sons?" "No," Warren quipped, "It's Buffett and Father." In Omaha, Buffett began courting Susan.thompson.She was the daughter of a prominent minister and professor of psychology in Omaha.Her family is Buffett friends, and her father contributed to one of Howard's electoral successes.Moreover, Susie (Susan's nickname) shared a dormitory with Warren's sister Roberta when she was a student at Northwestern University. Susie had a very bright smile, a round chin, and black hair that fell in curls around her neck—a little bit like Betty.Boop's looks.She is very lively and outgoing, and at first glance, she gives many people the impression that she is a little frivolous, even a little thoughtless. In fact, on the contrary, Susie was weak and sickly as a girl.She suffered from earaches ① In the later analysis and commentary, Buffett smoothed things out for Graham. He always joked that since he introduced himself, "Ben habitually Do the value-to-price ratio calculations and say 'no'". Her ears were often punctured; she also stayed at home for long periods of time with rheumatic fever.William and Doris.Thompson tried to make up for her misfortune with their care, affection, and demeanor. Susie admitted that she was acutely aware that she had grown up in an absolute loving embrace.After defeating the disease, she experienced a thrill of freedom, not only health, but complete freedom from pain."It's nice to be free from pain, I learned that at a very young age," she said. By the time she was an adult, Susie seemed to have had all the emotional experiences Warren hadn't.She has an unusual interest in meeting other people—a very strong one, I would say.She is naturally sympathetic, and she can always draw out people's topics in a peaceful way, especially at the emotional level. fein.Stewart Gordon, a sorority sister and later proprietor of the Russian Tea House in New York, put it this way: Susie has a charismatic side.We took the same philosophy class together.Later, she gave me this book on Zen Buddhism.She always strives to transcend the mundane and reach the highest level.She looked into my eyes and said, "Are you okay?" When Susie asked, she meant, "How is your life? How is your spirit and soul?" More specifically, Susie has an obsessive sense of death, but it's precisely the same feeling that has been haunting Warren.At some point during her illness, Susie's fear of death had disappeared, and now she longed to be with those who were struggling on the death bed, to alleviate their fear of death.Warren considered death from a logical point of view and wanted to get as far away from this terrible thing as possible, while Susan dealt with it from a spiritual point of view and always wanted to grasp it with her own hands. In the summer of 1951, when Warren saw Susie for the first time, he fell in love immediately, but Susie had no intention of loving him.She was sick of his brain games.Whenever Warren came to visit her, she slipped out the back door.He said he would be rich, which meant nothing to Susie.Furthermore, Susie recalled, she was "crazily in love with someone else".So Warren had to reluctantly deal with Susie's father.According to Suzy: Warren came to my parents' house every night to play the ukulele.My dad had been playing the mandolin since he was 20, so he was very happy to have someone to join in the ensemble.So Warren came to play every night, and I went out with the other guy. "The other man" was none other than Milton.Brown, the son of a Union Pacific mail porter, had started dating Suzy in high school and at Northwestern University.Susie's parents disapproved of her dating Jews and never invited Brown to visit their home.Penniless Brown is also unwelcome in Suzy's sorority.For Susie, who was struggling to break free from the protective environment, Brown, who had experienced a harsh and violent upbringing as a child, was very attractive.But in the end Susie gave in to her father, and after breaking up with Brown, she hurriedly left Northwestern University. In the meantime, Warren has been shrewdly watching developments.He told "Dock" Thompson that he was an absolute eclectic. "This Jew is worthy of Susie, and Christina is worthy of you." When he said that the Jew was worthy of Susie, he actually meant that Susie could find enough places from him to express Sympathy, caring.Susie's older sister, Doris, recalls: My father liked him immediately.Every time my family has dinner, he will come over.She would do the dishes while he sat on the stool, playing a ukulele or a small guitar, and singing.Warren does have a very charming voice. The dark-haired minister was a stickler, and he kept telling Susie that she should go out with Warren.Susie admired her father, and therefore respected his judgment. She finally started dating Warren.She liked his sense of humor, and their casual encounters developed into a romantic affair. "They were crazy about each other," said Warren's aunt, Katie. "They sat on each other's laps and kissed. It was horrific." Warren was, as he expected, "enough Jewish" for Susie.He has buried childhood traumas, like his tormenting mother and his forced move to Washington, that are waiting for Suzy to heal.And of all the people he came into contact with, Susie had the deepest understanding.Warren recalled that he was lonely until he met her. On the third Saturday in 1952, Susie, in a gown of Chantini lace under a sheer veil, was in Dundee.Press Battery is married to Warren.On the drive to California for their honeymoon, they stopped at the Wigworm Coffee House outside of Omaha for their first meal together.There is an account of their journey—perhaps a fabrication: On the first Sunday, Warren noticed a Cadillac parked alone outside a company headquarters.He parked the car and swaggered in, posing as a corporate boss, with his 19-year-old bride waiting for him, musingly married to Warren.Buffett this fact. Buffett's family life began in a $65-a-month three-bedroom apartment.Thinking of the promise Warren had made to become a rich man, Susie felt a little disheartened.这个地方是如此的破落不堪，在晚上甚至有耗子爬到他们的鞋子里去。沃伦对金钱抠得很紧，结果当夫妇二人有了女儿以后——她也取名叫苏茜——他们在一个梳妆台的抽屉里给她铺上了床。 在巴菲特—福尔克公司里，巴菲特不是人们通常见到的那种股票销售商。他可销售的第一种股票是一种很难出手、鲜为人知的证券GEICO股票，但是巴菲特，如今他克服了自我怀疑，投资了8000美元——几乎是他积蓄的2/3——到GEICO中，然后把它推销给整个奥马哈那些半信半疑的顾客（他的姑妈艾丽斯率先买了100股）。后来，股票在不到两年的时间里就翻了整整两倍。 这个年轻的销售商最不同寻常的一点在于他怀有研究的欲望。他带着孩童读漫画般的热情一页一页地阅读厚重的穆迪手册，在里面寻找线索。他发现了一些很小的宝石——而且是无人问津同时又是非常便宜的雪茄烟蒂，比如堪萨斯城市生活股票，杰纳西峡谷天然气股份以及西部保险证券等都以赢利能力3倍左右的价格在市场上交易，这简直好得让人难以置信。巴菲特计算着：如果这些股票如此廉价，有人一定会买进它们。但是他逐渐明白了，那个人就是他，没有人会来告诉你西部保险公司是个便宜货，你得靠自己来判断，来操作。 但是巴菲特选错了职业。所有这些研究对于一个经销商而言都只是徒劳而已，不论主意多棒或不怎么样，这个角色都不过是站在那里挣着同样微薄的佣金。 顾客们都认为他缺乏经验，有许多次都是顾客先听听巴菲特的言论，然后到自己的经纪人那里检核一番后才从他手中买进。巴菲特在奥马哈的一个朋友丹尼尔。莫内恩说：“这事把沃伦气坏了。” 巴菲特确实懂得入门的技巧。他对自己的高尔夫球教练鲍。德怀尔说： ①“让他们觉得你能，嗯，能节省点税金，这样就没人将你拒之门外了。” 但他不喜欢劝说别人去投资，尤其是当他意识到他自己的利益——仅仅是取得佣金——和他们的利益不是一回事儿时，这里有一个相反的甚至几乎是冲突的方面使他觉得非常不自在。唐。丹利说：“我知道他讨厌它。” 与此同时，巴菲特买下了得克萨科站，那是一家类似于威尔森角子机公司的企业——并且投资于房地产。但是它们都没有什么业绩。同时，他为格雷厄姆设计出一些研究项目，还向他建议了一些股票。他所做的任何事情都是为了获得让他趁格雷厄姆在世时为他工作的机会。 巴菲特在巴菲特—福尔克公司取得的最大进展根本不是在投资业上，而是巴菲特讲的戴尔。卡内基的公开课上。在上课时他给吓坏了，但他拼命控制住了这种害怕的心情。 一个有趣的问题摆在了面前，为什么一个21岁的股票经纪人想学那种技能？如果巴菲特仅仅只有成为一个投资者的野心，那么他不会预见到自己也许需要在大庭广众之中谈吐自如；更不用说他会预见有一天他会去做生动的即席讲话，而且能讲得如此富有吸引力，如此简洁，如此恰到好处，以至于他的听众都发誓说他一定有事先拟好的稿子。但是除了成为一个股票挑选行家以外，巴菲特还有什么渴望促使他敢于做这样的尝试呢？ 上完卡内基的课以后，巴菲特通过教一个夜班来使自己的技能日臻完善——在奥马哈大学教“投资学原理”。学生们都是30至40岁的人，他们中许多人都是医生。当这位瘦瘦的、领口敞开的21岁的老师走进来的时候，这些医生们不禁发出一阵窃笑。 巴菲特立即开始谈到了格雷厄姆。“在他谈了5分钟以后，你就彻底服了他了，”一位名叫利兰。奥尔森的产科医生说道，“他并不是自卖自夸，他很随意。” 巴菲特教了好几个学期，以《聪明的投资人》一书为基础来做讲座。但是他不时地用几个生活中的故事或是智者箴言来活跃一下课堂的气氛。他的表达用词简洁，语速恰到好处。 我将告诉你们在华尔街致富的秘密。 （停顿）快把门关上。当别人害怕的时候，你要尽力装得贪婪，而当别人变得贪婪时，你却要装得十分害怕。 当巴菲特作讲座时，他站在桌子后面，笨拙地弯着右臂，这样他的肘部就正抵着髋部，而他的手就放在下巴那儿，仿佛他正拿着电话听筒。然后他会伸出左臂抓住右肘，又仿佛确保它不要倒掉。接着他盯着学生们头顶上方，就好像他很害怕和学生们目光相碰似的。 他说话的时候带着强烈的热情，引得学生们都听得入神了。伊丽莎白。察恩，是个西班牙语教师，1953年和她丈夫——IBM公司一个销售人员一起入学。她被巴菲特的举止深深吸引住了，她对他每一个手势都能描绘得细致入微。尤其是那些表面上的相互矛盾使她颇感迷惑：巴菲特非常“心不在焉”，但与此同时，他对自己所说的东西又非常投入。他那种非正式的举止是一种非同寻常的集中的品质所触发的。“甚至在心不在焉时，我对他的印象都很 ① 他并不是在开玩笑，在离开沃顿之后，巴菲特和杰斯肯贝尔，他华盛顿朋友的父亲，一起共进午餐。This 位国会人士称巴菲特“比全国任何一个律师更懂税法”。 深刻。“察恩回忆道。 当他深深地陷入沉思时，他会在房间里踱来踱去，害羞似地低着头。正如察恩所担心的一样，他会撞到墙上然后折头往回走，之后在另一头再次发生同样的情况。没有任何事情能让他分神。巴菲特会从一点走到下一点，再下一点，就像铁轨一样笔直向前，就仿佛他的脑海里绘着一张讲座的蓝图。 与格雷厄姆不同的是，巴菲特不会泄露有关股票的内部消息，学生们却想间接地试着套出一些。他们会装作若无其事的样子，询问有关某家公司的消息，而巴菲特则会将他们一笑拒之。察恩甚至还大声地读过一首悲伤的歌谣：亲爱的商业——交易顾问哟，是我们在哭泣，为什么噢，你不告诉我们你买了些什么？ 巴菲特笑了，但是这没什么用。事实上这个年轻的销售商建议同学们不要去经纪人那里套小道消息。他说他们并不值得信赖。所有共享的信息都会令人神经紧张，他认为这些消息很有可能被任何一方滥用。大多数小道消息，都是没有什么价值，这也就是为何它会在经纪商之间传来传去的原因。但是好的主意——他的主意——是非常私有化的。他视它们为自己的创造——甚至带有一点神圣感。 霍华德。巴菲特在1952年从众议院卸职退休。他认为自己的儿子是一个诚实的经纪人，而且因此对他深为赞赏。据他的一个同事赫伯特。戴维斯说：“在沃伦取得令人自豪的成绩之前，霍华德就以他为骄傲。他总是不停地谈论沃伦，充满了强烈的喜爱之情。”同时沃伦对他的父亲也是极端忠实的。 1954年，由于参议员休。巴特勒去世，空出一个内布拉斯加参议员的席位，而霍华德非常希望能超过休。巴特勒——是受到提名的头号人物，但是共和党的温和派暗中想阻止他。这件事最后传到党派的州中央委员会那儿，于是委员们在林肯的共和党老巢科恩赫思卡旅馆开了一次颇有阴谋气氛的会议。 据沃伦的姐姐多丽丝说，沃伦曾秘密地到科恩赫斯卡去支持他们的父亲，然后无意中听到父亲被一名温和派成员罗曼。赫鲁什卡击败的不幸消息。 多丽丝说：“他到那儿去协助我们的父亲。他在咖啡店里偶然听到了这个消息，回来说道：”爸爸的喉咙从左耳裂到了右耳。 '" 根据其他人回忆，沃伦当时并没有提到这件事，他的父亲被压垮了，沃伦和他一起被压垮了。但是和父亲一样，沃伦把它藏在了心里。而当霍华德的梦想被粉碎了的时候，沃伦的梦想却实现了。本。格雷厄姆打电话来说宗教的障碍已经不复存在了，于是给巴菲特提供了一项工作。连工资是多少都没问一句（结果工资是年薪12000美元），巴菲特就搭上了下一班飞机。 华尔街在迎接巴菲特的到来时正处于一段被扭曲的时期之中，老一辈人都笼罩在对另一次大危机的恐惧之中，新的一辈尚未崛起。最近时期从哈佛商学院毕业的学生中，仅有2.9％的人来到了华尔街，新的一代人觉得这里没有诱惑力。外表上它是一座饰有笕嘴的巨大堡垒，黑色的豪华轿车等候着大脑疲惫不堪的人们；它的里面是男性化的，古老陈旧地使用一成不变的技术。在美林（Merrill Lynch），匹尔斯（Pierce），芬宝（Fenner＆Beane），客户的指令都由一张小小的纸片承载着，被放在传送皮带上，“朝着它们既定的目标愉快地走过去。” 国家的确是繁荣了，道。琼斯工业指数也到达了380点的高位，但是“谨慎”二字仍旧是大家的口号。历史上股票行情最后一次达到如此之高是在1929年。对于像格雷厄姆这样的人，再也不想回到在那之后发生的可怕事件中。他对自己所称的“新的一轮投机”深感忧虑，于是他一直在手头留着一套1914年以来的穆迪手册——仿佛近来的一切都令人感到疑虑。 格雷厄姆—纽曼公司座落在42大街的查尼大楼。它在一个大玻璃灯泡下设有一个股价行情屏幕，不停地发出嘀哒声。巴菲特是6名职员中的一个，他和沃特。施洛斯共用一间小屋，后来又和汤姆。克纳普共用。和其他人一样，他穿着一件灰布夹克；也和其他人一样，花许多时间在标准普尔股票指南上寻找公司，据克纳普说，巴菲特 从最开始起就非常自信。我以为他的父亲一定答应给他或是借给他一些资金。他说不是这样的，他想从零开始开创业绩。而且他希望自己挣来的收入非常正当。许多时候我都记着说“唧！沃伦这项没上报！”（给政府），他会说：“我会算进去的。” 格雷厄姆—纽曼公司是一项共同基金，它根据一些选择的技巧来买进股票，格雷厄姆热衷于猎取那些以低于它们净营运资本1/3的价格交易的股票——换句话说，那些便宜极了的股票，当巴菲特或另一个助手发现了这种股票，他就会把它交给格雷厄姆（助手们都尽力避开杰里。纽曼，格雷厄姆的合伙人，此人卑鄙无耻的程度就如同格雷厄姆受人爱戴的程度一样）。格雷厄姆当场决定是否买入他们。不用说服格雷厄姆，对于他来说一种股票只会要么符合他的标准，要么不符合，他通过数学就能作出判断。 巴菲特遇到的麻烦在于他找到的股票比他可以抛售的股票要多。他仔细读过标准普尔指南，对于他而言，这本书相当于是《赚到1000美元的1000招》的成人版，他似乎急着想要把格雷厄姆的所有作品都给复制下来。 有一次，一个费城的经纪商以15美元一股的价格提供给他一种叫做家庭保护公司的名不见经传的保险股票。由于没有关于它的公开资料，因此没有办法对它进行估价。但是巴菲特找到了位于哈里斯堡的州保险办公室，搜集到了一些数据。他所看到的信息足以说明家庭保护公司股票绝对是便宜货，但是杰里。纽曼拒绝要它。于是巴菲特和克纳普在自己的户头买进了一些，一段时间以后，它就上升到370美元一股。 巴菲特还发现位于马萨诸塞的新贝德福德联合铁道股票正以45美元的价位交易，而每股单算现金值就达120美元。巴菲特简直不敢相信自己的运气，但格雷厄姆却不为所动，巴菲特又一次自己买进了一笔。 巴菲特在工作的第一年就一举成功。1954年罗克。伍德公司，一个位于布鲁克林的巧克力股份公司，宣布用可可豆回赎部分股票，他们有大量的可可豆库存。巴菲特推断认为用股票换回可可豆的同时再在商品市场出售可可豆——目前可可豆市价很高——将可赚到巨大的利润，正如他后来形容道：“许多周以来我一直忙着买股票、卖豆子，然后在施罗德信托公司作暂时停留，把股权证换成仓库收据，利润相当可观，而我唯一的花费仅仅是乘地铁的费用。” 这种交易，利用了不同市场的价格差异，被称为套利。套利在格雷厄姆—纽曼公司的手册中是一个主要的部分，但是在它的应用方面，巴菲特却遥遥领先。 事实上巴菲特在任何事上都快人一步。格雷厄姆能够把满是一栏栏数字的一页纸浏览一遍，然后指出其中的一个错误，这能力让他的学生惊叹不已。 而巴菲特比他更快，杰里。纽曼的儿子霍华德。纽曼也在那里工作。他说沃伦聪明绝顶而且又很谦虚，他比格雷厄姆更胜一筹。 沃伦和苏茜在郊区的怀特。普米恩斯租了一套花园公寓。和在奥马哈的时候一样，沃伦看管好他的每一分钱。他们搬去不久就有了一个儿子——取名为霍华德。格雷厄姆。尽管沃伦现在的生活很富裕，他还是给他借来一张婴儿小床。 在他们这个华尔街年轻夫妇的圈子中，沃伦和苏茜各自由于不同的原因，都令人注目。罗克珊。伯兰特，她的丈夫豪利是个股票经纪商，说道： 他们和我们认识的其他年轻人很不一样。他们更单纯，或至少他们显得是那样的。苏茜对我为何还没有孩子很感兴趣，她鼓励我说出了自己的想法。 与布鲁克。布拉泽夫妇身上呆板的50年代的风格相比，沃伦和苏茜明显要不拘礼节一些。在巴菲特家吃饭的时候，年幼的豪伊还刚开始会爬，罗克珊。伯兰特便有种“到处都是孩子和玩具”的感觉。巴菲特的孩子们不像在曼哈顿餐宴晚会上的孩子一样被“搁置一边”，他们是整个宴会的一部分。 对于亨利。勃兰特这个哈佛商学院毕业的优等生来说，他感兴趣的是巴菲特对股票比任何人都懂得要多，而他把它们解释得如此简单，而且又毫不牵强。当勃兰特一家与巴菲特全家和其他华盛顿夫妇们在一起娱乐时，大家会陷入一种古怪的仪式中。饭后，男人们聚到屋里，巴菲特一屁股坐到一张很舒服的粗扶手黑白呢的椅子里，而其他都比巴菲特年长的人，都坐在地板上听他说话。他神情严肃地解释宇宙万物，就和他在兄弟会晚会上的情景一样。罗克珊。勃兰特称他们为“耶稣和信徒们”。 格雷厄姆把巴菲特当作他门徒中的精华，并且承认他们两人之间有相似之处。一天，当他们去办公室附近的一家熟食店吃午饭的时候，格雷厄姆说：“沃伦，金钱对于你我而言没有任何差别，我们是一样的，我们的妻子都会过得更好的。” 格雷厄姆是个很有头脑的上司，巴菲特的儿子出世的时候，他送给巴菲特一台摄像机和影像放映机——对于一个仅仅被雇几个月的雇员而言，这份礼物可谓十分丰厚。在格雷厄姆自己的生日，他会向雇员们分发礼物，表示对自己出世感到无比幸运。 但巴菲特的工作好像并没有像他曾希望过的那样，可以和格雷厄姆很接近。用巴菲特的话来说，格雷厄姆“有一层外壳围绕着他。每个人都喜欢他，每个人都崇敬他，（同时也）喜欢在他周围……但没有人能接近他”。其实，同样的评价也可以用于巴菲特本人。 不管怎样，巴菲特在格雷厄姆—纽曼公司还是受到了一些挫折。他手头的基金资本只剩下5万，这几乎无法给大量的投资活动提供机会。合伙企业还经营着一项个人基金，纽曼及格雷厄姆基金，但是在这两项业务之间，办公室只管理着1200万的资金，这在当时只是一笔很小的数目。而格雷厄姆对股市又非常地紧张，于是他让纽曼及格雷厄姆的合伙人抽走一些资金。 简单地说，巴菲特的机会受到了限制。有一次，他告诉自己的高尔夫球教练说他学到了许多东西，但同时也提到格雷厄姆“坐在400万资金上，努 力想决定何时重返市场“，这与巴菲特想象中开创他事业的方式大相径庭。 有意思的是，格雷厄姆—纽曼公司的股票需求量是如此之大，它们以高于证券组合价值200美元的溢价交易，大约达到了1200美元。（于是许多人只买这种股票来作组合。）要是格雷厄姆早点动手的话，他早就把他的业务扩成一项大生意了。但是格雷厄姆的首要目标并不是要挣钱——而是要避免损失。 由于他的保守态度，他拒绝对公司进行任何主观的分析，而是乐于坚持自己的数学准则。据格雷厄姆的一个助手：欧文。卡胡说，如果有人想和格雷厄姆谈论一家公司的产品，“本就会眼睛看着窗外流露出厌烦的神情。” 卡胡说巴菲特和格雷厄姆“就此争论不休”，知道他们脾气的人都明白——这形容显得有点夸大其辞。但是他们之间的差别是真实存在的。巴菲特感兴趣和追求的是究竟是什么使得一家企业比另一家更成功，格雷厄姆则盲目地信任公司管理能力，因而并不赞成巴菲特到公司去拜访。他这种公式化的方法使他吃了大亏。 沃尔特。施洛斯想说明它买下哈洛依德公司，这是一家拥有使用静电印刷技术权利的普通摄影公司。股票价格是21美元，而哈洛依德正在营运的业务占其中17美元的份额。因此，施洛斯指出可以在静电复印机上获利4美元，但是格雷厄姆对任何投机都不感兴趣。他会说：“沃尔特，它还不很便宜呢。” 在市场里出现持续上涨势头的同时，格雷厄姆却变得更加焦虑了。到1955年，道。琼斯指数突破了420点，比1929年高点还要高出10％之多。 半个世纪已经过去了，根本没有理由说市场为什么不能上升。但是老一辈人还是频频想起1929年的情形。国会对未来可能出现的破产深感不安，于是安排了一个意见听取会。在参议院银行业委员会对肯尼恩。加尔布雷恩即将出版的1929年的研究——一本名为《大崩溃》的书之前——这本书震惊了市场，造成了市场上一日崩盘。难道下一次崩溃已经来临了吗？ 没有人知道，但是意见听取会的真正意图和它所陈述出来的意图实际上是不同的。这是政治家有们重新想对华尔街探底的热望。从JP摩根公司的时代开始的每一代的金融教父都被召集到华盛顿。当格雷厄姆出现时，委员会主席J.威廉。富布莱特十分清楚地意识到他是这个时代里出色的股票挑选家。富布莱特十分渴望能挖掘出他的秘密。于是他仔细询问交易的各个方面。 许多时候，他看上去很像一个准备打电话给经纪商的人。 主席先生：格雷厄姆先生，联系到您自己的公司来说……您如何判断某种特殊情形有没有被低估的呢？ 格雷厄姆很有耐性地把参议员带进了学校。有一次，当格雷厄姆对股票期权表示出自己的怀疑态度时，富布莱特极力想诌媚他一番。 主席先生：我非常同意您的观点。 格雷厄姆：议员先生，我可无意想用自己的观点来博得您的赞同。 最后，富布莱特终于谈到了核心的问题。 主席先生：最后一个问题。当你发现了某个特殊的情形，并且您仅凭臆想判断你可以用10美元买下，而它是值30美元的，于是你买进一些。但您只有当许许多多其他的人们认为它确实值30美元的时候您才能实现您的利润。这个过程是如何产生的——是作宣传呢？or something else? 他又重述道：是什么原因促使一种廉价的股票发现自己的价值呢？ 格雷厄姆：这正是我们行业的一个神秘之处。对我和对其他任何人而言， 它一样神奇。（但是）我们从经验上知道最终市场会达到它的价值。 虽然他的答案省略了许多东西，但这正是巴菲特创业的基础。股票会回归到自身的价值，因此，一个坚信自己判断的投资者要有耐心。 但格雷厄姆自己对此不再有任何兴趣了。在意见听取会设立一年之后的1956年，他退休回到了贝弗利希尔斯，在加州洛杉矶分校教书，他和自己的妻子以及一位女法语教师一起追求着一种撰写金融著作、滑雪、读古典文学书籍的生活。他把自己许多的金钱都花在慈善事业上，他认为任何在自己名下有多于100万美元财产的人都是十足的傻瓜。 格雷厄姆—纽曼公司的业绩相当不错，但并不十分可观，从1945年到1946年它每年赢利17.4％，和标准普尔500的水平相平齐。然而这个数字并没有包括它最成功的投资项目——它的GEICO股份——它们已经分配给格雷厄姆—纽曼公司股东了。所有在1956年一直持有GEICO股票的人都获得了比标准普尔500高出一倍的收益。 但是巴菲特默默在做着自己的投资，他取得了更好的业绩。自从1950年离开大学校园以来，巴菲特的个人资本已由9800美元激增到了14万。现在他有了赌注，他又想回到家乡奥马哈了。站在火车站平台上，四周满是纽约的人来潮往，他明白这并不是他向往的生活。 在1956年的春天，他和苏茜在昂德伍德大街上租了一间房子，正好离巴菲特家的杂货店两个街区远。这次巴菲特再也没有受雇于人的念头了。5月1日那天，就是他刚到奥马哈的那天，他把一帮家人和朋友们组织起来。有限的7个成员：姐姐多丽丝和她的丈夫，艾丽丝姑妈，多克。汤普森——他以前室友和他的母亲，还有他的律师丹。莫内——筹集了105000元资金，巴菲特作为总合伙人，投入了100美元，虽然这是个很小的数目，但是巴菲特不再是为他的父亲或本。格雷厄姆挣钱了，而是为他自己的合伙公司——巴菲特有限公司。 那段时间，格雷厄姆—纽曼的一位投资者同时也是一位物理学家霍默。道奇向格雷厄姆提了一个人们常常提起的问题：“谁将继承您的衣钵？” 格雷厄姆暗示说是沃伦。Buffett.当道奇在车后牵了一艘独木舟驱车往西去度暑假时，他在奥马哈作了停留。他和巴菲特简短地谈了几句，然后答应投入120000资金。 如今巴菲特有了三个小的合作企业，同时他开始预测他的家庭联营会有某种更好的发展。8月份，他回到纽约，最后一次参加格雷厄姆—纽曼公司的股东大会。他对格雷厄姆的另一门徒埃德。安德森提到，他正考虑遵循格雷厄姆的模式建立一个合伙企业——也许最低要有5万资金。然而谁又能说他是否能接过格雷厄姆的火炬呢？当股东们正式投票决定格雷厄姆—纽曼公司不复存在的时候，一个名叫卢。格林的投资者讽刺他，赞美了一番格雷厄姆，曼哈顿交易所的负责人宣称格雷厄姆犯了“一个严重的错误”——他没能发掘出贤人。格林为了清楚地划出这条界线，详尽地解释道：“格雷厄姆之所以不能继续经营下去，是因为他们能够委任的唯一人选是沃伦。巴菲特。 而又有谁想和巴菲特去打交道呢？