Chapter 75 Section 2 Crime is on the rise

The starting point for all this discussion must be that crime is increasing.For many years the Home Office orthodoxy was to deny this, or at least minimize it, and focus instead on the 'fear of crime'.But an analysis of criminal records shows that claims of "fear of crime" are overblown, especially among older victim groups.The unspoken implication of the above statement is that if commentators talk less about crime, there will be less needless fear, and the public will feel safer on the streets and in their homes.The systematic promotion of such views is largely impossible in a free society with constraints on government.Therefore, the only way to reduce the fear of crime is to reduce the threat of crime.Where there is a real threat—where the likely victim is vulnerable—fear is a rational and prudent response.

The second, and more weighty, argument advanced is that recorded crime figures imply an increase in actual crime rates.At first glance, the Home Office's British Crime Surveys of 1982, 1984, 1988 and most recently 1992 give some basis for this claim. The British Crime Survey asked 10,000 people directly about their experiences as victims of crime, while official crime figures are based on reports to the police.Recorded crime figures almost doubled between 1981 and 1991, but the British Crime Survey puts the increase at around 50%.The inference is that the number of people willing to report crimes to the police has increased.Especially in cases like sexual assault, this is easily explained by the police taking a more sympathetic approach to victims.It also speaks to a level of trust in the police that is rarely noticed by critics of the police.

On the other side of the argument, it must be remembered that surveys of victims underreport the actual number of violent crimes, especially violence within the family.So we can't be sure which of the two sets of figures is more accurate with regard to violent crimes (although both show a large increase, just to a different degree).As for other crimes, the Survey found that since 1987 there has been a sharp increase in recorded break-and-break crimes.On balance, therefore, the British Crime Survey does not have much doubt about the fact that actual crime has increased substantially in recent years.But it's not just the year-to-year crime numbers -- or rather, the crime rate -- that unnerve the public, but also its long-term trends.Its trend is to rise significantly.There will of course be some changes in the way crime figures are recorded over time, but these crime records form the only continuous set of figures which speaks very clearly about crime.Since these situations are so close to how people perceive them, they are convincing.

In the second half of the 19th century, crime rates in both property crime and violent crime declined significantly.The crime rate—that is, the number of criminal offenses per 100,000 people—did not rise substantially until the late 1950s.Later it rose faster.The current crime rate is 10 times that of 1955 and 60 times that of 1900. It's hardly consolation, but the surge in crime in the 1960s was not just a national phenomenon.From the 1960s to 1990, the crime rate in the United States tripled, while the incidence of violent crimes quadrupled.In the United States, especially in large cities, there are still more violent incidents than in the United Kingdom and Europe.This is reflected on the one hand in the increase in the number of guns on the streets (as opposed to in American households, where burglary has been suppressed, perhaps) and on the other hand in the number of murders and drug-related The number of related attacks has increased.But despite these major differences, the situation on both sides of the Atlantic is similar.Property crime rates have now reached comparable levels across the West.We Brits must drop the complacent assumption that because we have what we call a more refined and communal civilization, we are therefore immune to the American tendencies we bemoan.For example, in the United Kingdom, the crime rate of burglary in 1981 was only half that of the United States; it was on par with the United States in 1987;

Possibly, ambiguity appears about whether it is reasonable to compare statistics across time periods and across countries.But what has happened in the West over the past 30 years cannot be denied, nor can its significance be denied. Theorists and practitioners generally agree that the main purpose of the state is to maintain order.People are very yearning to use law to maintain order, and law should also respect rights.Unless the state has the will and ability to keep order, not only bad men but also good men will end up defying its authority.Law-abiding people feel demoralized when they see criminals go unpunished.In this way, citizens and local communities, detached from state institutions, lose confidence in law enforcement authorities and rely on self-organized, varying degrees of vigilance to protect themselves, their families, and neighbors.Once this centrifugal tendency exceeds a certain limit, it is almost impossible to reverse.This is a further reason why Western governments should be concerned about rising crime and violence trends.