Chapter 47 Section 3 Stocks and Finance

Gossip report on industry research: In the banking industry in 2013, the inflection point of the non-performing rate of the entire industry appeared in the first half of the year; the interest rate spread remained at around the level of the fourth quarter of 2012; Around 8%, characteristic commercial banks around 30%, others around 20%. In fact, buying stocks is not that complicated.Serious research: 1. Can the company's future earnings continue to grow ideally? 2. Is the current stock price undervalued?Buy as long as you meet both of these requirements.After buying, just do what you should do.I don't buy industries I don't understand; I don't buy companies with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 15 times.

In the past year, experts and the media have predicted with one voice: local financing platforms and real estate will pose a serious threat to the quality of bank assets.The truth is, there is no threat of any kind at the moment, nor does it appear to be, nor will it be for years to come.The economic downturn and the non-performing ratio of bank assets have risen slightly, which is precisely caused by the real economy that everyone is not worried about.What you worry about is not a problem; what you don't worry about is a problem. Today I heard Dong Wenbiao tell the presidents of Minsheng Hangzhou and Wenzhou branches: "Small and micro enterprise customers whose bosses don't run away, you are not allowed to collect loans in advance. When they encounter difficulties and need funds, you provide additional loans to help them overcome difficulties. Period. It’s about sending charcoal in the snow. When the national economic situation improves, they will be grateful to Minsheng and become lifelong customers.” The economic downturn has led to a slight increase in Minsheng’s non-performing rate, mainly caused by Hangzhou and Wenzhou.

After the United States implements interest rate liberalization, the interest rate spread of the banking industry has expanded. It is unfounded and unscientific to infer that China will do the same. It is unfounded and unscientific; the negative growth of China's banking industry profits and even the loss of the entire industry are the same. It also lacks basis and is unscientific. In order to reduce the cost of buying stocks, we purchased a small amount of put options (short positions) for delivery in three years in a small amount in June.The reporter does not understand that selling a short position is a long position, which is different from buying a short position.It is believed that "Shi's large proportion of selling short positions" is short selling, which has triggered this round of large-scale short selling by major international banks, and has also been labeled as a "double-faced Shi Yuzhu".There are hundreds of petty injustices on me, and it doesn't matter if I add another one.

International investment banks jointly short-selling process: 1. Search for sectors and stocks; 2. Huge amount of securities lending (stock borrowing); 3. Quietly sell half of the stocks; 4. Publish bearish reports on the industry and the stock to create rumors; 5. Create Unfavorable events, such as ultra-low price bulk transactions, etc.; 6. The remaining stocks in the hand suddenly hit the market, causing the stock to plummet, creating a terrorist atmosphere, and forcing retail investors to cut their meat; stock.Shorting Minsheng H and A this time was not very successful. In response to the short selling of two international investment banks, JP Morgan Chase and Credit Suisse, Minsheng Bank urgently held a conference call with investors and analysts this afternoon to clarify related rumors.Minsheng Bank said: 1. The company is operating normally; 2. Minsheng has prepared in advance five years ago, and the liberalization of interest rates will not cause major problems for Minsheng; 3. The future development trend of asset quality is controllable, and non-performing loans in the second half of the year will not exceed The semi-annual report has an expanding trend.

International investment banks are shorting China's banking industry and the Chinese economy, making profits by shorting.Non-performing loans of banks are calculated by five-category classification, and non-performing loans and bad debts are two concepts.Throughout the past 10 years, looking across the listed banks, the proportion of non-performing loans eventually formed into bad debts was 10%, and 90% could be recovered.It is normal for non-performing loans to rise slightly during the economic downturn.fall!fall!Anyway, we hold it for a long time and rely on dividends to make a living.

In fact, as long as the China Securities Regulatory Commission said a few words, the market immediately stopped falling, and even rose by the limit.These two sentences are: "Suspend issuance of new shares, suspend shorting stock indexes." Suspend issuance of new shares, but the power does not lie with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which is only responsible for the blame; the suspension of short selling was announced by the United States and Europe when the stock market was in a downturn. There is another way to increase bank capital and reduce fundraising: Banks own a large number of real estate properties in prime locations, the number of which is frighteningly large, and they are all accounted for according to the cost of construction or purchase in the current year, often based on the cost of 10, 20, 30 years ago If it is reassessed according to international practice and recorded at fair value, the capital of the bank will increase significantly, and there will be no need to ask shareholders for money for three years.

On newspapers and television, analysts unanimously spread rumors: Bank loans cannot be released.in vain!Except for monopoly enterprises, enterprises are generally short of funds and want to borrow money but cannot get it.After the two interest rate cuts, the bank loan interest rate has not dropped significantly (but the loan interest rate for large state-owned enterprises has indeed fallen at the same time), and now and in the next five years, loans will still be a very tight commodity. Hong Kong's investment bank financial products are very rich.For example, when an investor buys a certain stock or stock option (long position) in the secondary market, he also promises to the investment bank: 3 years later, if the stock price is lower than 50% of the current stock price, the investor will pay the investment bank = 50% of the current stock price-the stock price in 3 years, this behavior (short position) can greatly reduce the cost of buying stocks.Financial products are risky, unless you have a good understanding of the stock and have full confidence.

In China, as long as the banks are stable, there will be no major financial crisis; once the banks fail, the national economy will collapse. I will continue to stick to Minsheng Bank for a long time. 1. Minsheng is the only bank in the country that does not have loan rights for branches. It has strong risk control and a really low bad debt rate; 2. Minsheng has been ready for the liberalization of interest rates three years ago. The proportion of intermediary business income has increased year by year, and the industrial chain has been built It has become a scale; 3. It is taking off for the second time. Last year, its profit surpassed that of Industrial and Shanghai Pudong Development. I hope it will catch up with CITIC this year, catch up with China Merchants in the second half of next year, and become the leader of joint-stock commercial banks.

In the stock market, it is only healthy if value investing is the mainstream, and it becomes a casino if it is dominated by speculation.There are too many retail speculators in our country. The national authorities learn from developed countries and vigorously develop funds in an attempt to increase the proportion of value investment.However, the annual ranking of fund performance, this mountain is pressing on the funds, forcing them into prostitution, and the funds have to speculate, and even manipulate small-cap stocks to make swings, becoming large retail investors.Suggestion: guide funds to return to value investment, and cancel the annual fund ranking.

1. The US economy is not a big problem, the government is poor but the people are rich.Americans are highly innovative.The U.S. economy will be fine.The big deal is to play hooligans, print more money, and let the world pay for it. 2. The European economy is in trouble.The currency is unified but the finances are not unified, and the social welfare is too generous, resulting in too heavy a financial burden and more lazy people.The European economy will be in trouble for a long time.Fortunately, political leaders in various countries in Europe are paying close attention, and major catastrophic events will not occur.

The giant investment department, from July 17 to August 17, cannot increase its holdings of Minsheng Bank.During the period, the stock price plummeted, and the book was a floating loss, which was ridiculed by many analysts and netizens for their lack of vision.I secretly rejoiced. A few years later, Minsheng earned more than 2 yuan per share and net assets per share of 12 yuan. If the giants partially reduce their holdings, they will not be able to call me black-hearted and immoral.There are too many analysts and investors with speculative thinking in China, and the capital market needs more long-term investors. The most promising financial industry is insurance. At present, China's per capita insurance premium expenditure is only a fraction of that of developed countries.Personal insurance premium expenditure, if you can learn from the United States, you will be exempted from paying individual taxes in the current period, and the insurance industry will grow explosively.The most respectable companies in China's insurance industry are Ping An and Sunshine. Ping An has strong innovation capabilities and is about to become the largest insurance group in China. Sunshine Insurance is full of vitality. Its growth rate has maintained the first place in the industry for five years. It has surpassed the top 100 and ranked seventh. . During the financial crisis two years ago, foreign analysts all believed that China's GDP would grow negatively, and the crisis period was very long.Our company was also frightened, doubted the government's solution to the economic crisis, and made a wrong decision to hold cash for the winter.Selling a large number of financial stocks that have been held for seven or eight years at a low price, although the profit exceeds the sum of the cumulative profits of the health care and online game businesses, it is billions less than the stock price a few months later.Doubting the party's ability to control the macro economy will cost a heavy price! The capital market is overly pessimistic about the local government financing platforms of commercial banks.I have contacted several decision makers of commercial banks, and they all believe that government platforms in developed regions are their best customers, with land discount mortgages, repayment sources, and credit guarantees.Except for the four major state-owned banks, the outlets of commercial banks have not yet opened in economically underdeveloped areas, objectively avoiding risks.