Chapter 29 Chapter 28 Will China's reform be good?

Since 2005, Wu Jinglian has actually fallen into the dilemma of being attacked on three sides and fighting on two fronts. Several forces that constituted an "attack" against him, one was from the stubborn "leftist" forces, who called for "unequal interests" and opposed market-oriented reforms. The targets of the economic theory field are: first, some "popular upstarts" who have monopolized the power of resource allocation. They are unwilling to return to the planned economic system, and they are unwilling to continue on the road of marketization and rule of law. Instead, they hope to maintain or even expand the state of transition in which administrative power intervenes extensively in the market, so as to continue to "seek rent" for profit. Wu Jinglian's call for the rule of law makes them very disturbed; there is another force that is being manipulated by the above two forces. The wave of populism from the bottom of society, they can't help but oppose all vested interests.For Wu Jinglian, the attack from this force was the most lethal, almost making him helpless.

According to Wu Jinglian's analysis, the reason why the "ultra-leftists" can make big waves is because they can use populist and nationalist rhetoric to mislead those who have legitimate indignation against aristocracy and capitalism, and make them follow them on the path of opposing reform. forked road.However, at the same time, in his opinion, the people are reasonable, as long as they have the correct direction of public opinion, they can figure out what their real interests lie. At that time, one of the issues that the public was most concerned about was the unfair distribution of income and the growing disparity between the rich and the poor.However, some "ultra-leftist" people take advantage of this legitimate dissatisfaction, and point the finger at ordinary high-income groups such as entrepreneurs, company employees, and doctors. Some websites are full of "rich people don't have a good thing", "to The rich man shoots" chants.This public opinion offensive even had fatal consequences.

In the winter of 2005, such a vicious criminal case occurred in Beijing: a 29-year-old immigrant farmer was sentenced to death for killing 35-year-old Ms. Xiong, an associate professor of Tsinghua University, during a robbery.The criminal confessed in court that his only hobby was surfing the Internet, and what he learned from the Internet was that "rich people are too crazy, so I want to teach them a lesson."A China News Agency reporter who witnessed the trial wrote, "This case again stems from the mentality of hating the rich." Faced with this social situation, Wu Jinglian published a statement in the "Caijing" magazine published in late November that sounded very harsh to many people: "Shooting the rich at every turn will lead to serious social consequences."

Restoring the context of the dialogue at that time is like this—— Reporter: Now everyone sees many unfair phenomena in the market, and thinks that only the government can maintain fairness; if the government withdraws from resource allocation, it will lead to even more unfairness in society.How should we understand this? Wu Jinglian believed in his answer that there are two possible sources of income inequality, one is the inequality of opportunities, and the other is the inequality of outcomes. In his view, the current disparity between the rich and the poor in Chinese society mainly comes from the inequality of opportunities.For example, corrupt officials use their public power to seek rent, steal public property, buy and sell officials, and easily become tens of millions or billionaires.Immediately afterwards, he screened the two social sentiments of "hatred of corruption" and "hatred of the rich". Confused with 'anti-wealth'. It is not aimed at corrupt officials and 'red-top businessmen', but at the upper class of the middle-income class, such as doctors, professors, state-owned enterprise executives, small and medium-sized business owners, etc. This is also politically wrong It is easy to confuse 'rotten' and 'rich', but the responsibility of the leaders and the media is to help the public distinguish between the two, and truly understand who is our friend and who is our enemy. What is worrying is that it seems to focus on Attention is paid to the inequality of results, so it is necessary to limit the maximum salary of managers of state-owned enterprises, impose high taxes on ordinary rich people, etc.; It will also lead to serious social consequences. The disparity between the rich and the poor is caused by corruption and the exchange of power for income, that is, power rent-seeking.”

This remark was extracted by the editor of Caijing into a catchy headline - "Shooting the Rich Will Cause Serious Social Consequences".After the article was published, it caused a "war of words" on the Internet immediately. Some commentators "discussed" with him in "Dahe Daily" and said: "The author is puzzled by this. Mr. Wu believes that the inequality of opportunities is the corruption of officials. , the author admits this, but the inequality of opportunities is not just from them... The rich class that Mr. Wu mentioned, that is, doctors, professors, executives of state-owned enterprises, owners of small and medium-sized enterprises, etc., really have to do with each other in the process of becoming rich. Is it irrelevant to unfair opportunities? I don’t think so.” Another commentator asked directly: “Wu Jinglian, whose economist are you?”

For such rebuttals and doubters, Wu Jinglian felt quite helpless.However, he still had to continue to make clear what he wanted to say.At the Caijing annual meeting not long after, he said: "Who might oppose reform? One is a vested interest group and the other is a poor group. They may form an alliance against the market system. They use the slogan of making up for market defects , The public is completely unaware that their destiny will change." In March 2007, the question of "whom the economist speaks for" that had plagued Wu Jinglian in the past few years broke out again.His remarks at the national "two sessions" once again attracted overwhelming criticism and even abuse.

The first wave of criticism was elicited by "whether the price will be raised during the Spring Festival travel season".In recent years, because the railway transport capacity cannot meet the needs of hundreds of millions of migrant workers returning home during the Spring Festival, before the Spring Festival, even if people line up for a few days and nights, it is difficult to get a ticket. The scalpers who got the ticket took the opportunity to make a fortune. In 2007, the Ministry of Railways decided not to increase the price of train tickets during the Spring Festival travel season.This move aroused heated discussions in the press, with the overwhelming majority agreeing with joy, and some sporadic objections.

On March 7, CPPCC members discussed in groups the work report made by the CPPCC Proposal Committee.The work report mentioned that this year's Spring Festival travel train ticket prices did not increase because the CPPCC reflected the members' opinions to the leaders.During the discussion, Wu Jinglian commented on the work of the CPPCC and said that when encountering controversial issues, it is best to reflect the opinions of both parties.But we often only reflect the "mainstream" opinions.In the past, when discussing issues such as "sports industrialization" and "education industrialization", opposing opinions were not reflected, and the speeches heard at the plenary meeting were all in favor.This time, there is only one side to the response to "whether the price will increase during the Spring Festival travel season".I saw an article by Professor Mao Yushi on the Internet. He pointed out that if the ticket price for the Spring Festival travel festival does not go up, the result is not ideal. In fact, many migrant workers lined up overnight but could not buy a ticket.There are also rampant rent-seeking activities such as batching notes.Wu Jinglian said that he felt that what Professor Mao said was very reasonable, because the supply of train seats would not increase without raising the price, and migrant workers would not benefit from it.I heard that because the railway department did not raise prices, it received less than 200 million yuan for the whole year. Why didn't it use the 200 million yuan to give a year-end bonus to all migrant workers?As for whether it is necessary to return home or change vehicles on the eve of the Spring Festival, it is up to everyone to decide.

These remarks immediately attracted countless saliva on the Internet, and voices of disappointment, blame and even insults arose everywhere. Some netizens wrote in their blogs: "Wu Jinglian was once known as the 'conscience of Chinese economics'. However, this 'conscience', probably It belongs to economics, not to the people. This is evidenced by the flood of saliva spouted by the people recently.” The information torrent of the Internet forms a disorderly carnival “square effect”, and people are fascinated by gestures, scandals, black and white Conflict and bigoted populist stances, as these quickly evoke sentimentality and attention.But for rational and moderate thinking, it seems extremely impatient.In such a space of public opinion, rational expression will become very ridiculous, and scholars like Wu Jinglian, who are rigorous in thinking and cautious in expression, naturally find it difficult to adapt.This is the chaotic stage that a long-closed society must go through in the suddenly open public opinion space, which was described by Walter Lippmann as early as 1922 in his book "Public Opinion".In those years, almost all market economists encountered similar attacks and ridicules. Of course, apart from Wu Jinglian, Mao Yushi, who had always taken serving the disadvantaged as his mission, was also doomed.

Another storm was caused by land acquisition and demolition compensation issues.Walking on the road after a meeting, a reporter from a newspaper in the south asked him his opinion on this issue. Wu Jinglian replied, first of all, I object to taking away other people’s land under the pretext that land is public property. .However, is it necessary to compensate at the market price?I don't think so, because urbanization is the result of the efforts of all aspects of society. The appreciation of real estate in the process of urbanization is not necessarily all the contribution of the landowners, so the gains from the appreciation should not all go to them.Therefore, I propose to establish an urbanization fund with part of the appreciation proceeds according to the situation.

Later, Wu Jinglian recalled that he made this suggestion because he saw certain situations during research in some development zones in Guangdong.There, farmers who are included in the development zone enjoy all the benefits of real estate appreciation, and immediately enjoy an annual income of more than 100,000 to 200,000 without working. Contributed, but received no compensation.It's not fair to them.At the same time, doing so is not necessarily beneficial to those who receive compensation. From peasants who work all day long but earn meager income suddenly become rich people who can get something for nothing, it is likely that their second and third generations will become so-called "second-generation ancestors" who are idle. ". After that conversation, the reporter immediately sent the news that "Wu Jinglian opposes compensation at market price" to the agency.The newspaper also immediately organized interviews with university professors and experts in the city.This of course elicited a strong reaction from the people who suffered from the demolition.There was a lot of shouting and cursing on the Internet, and some people posted posts encouraging violence, "Smash that old man Wu's house!" This even caused panic among the downstairs neighbors who lived in the same dormitory building with Wu Jinglian, "If you smash his unit, wouldn’t that overwhelm our room?” Faced with such a scene, Wu Jinglian was powerless.In the eyes of many people, with his status as a master and the social image of "the conscience of the economics circle" that he has formed, there is no need to speak rashly for some "sesame mung bean" topics, and these remarks will obviously be tolerated. In the attack, he seemed to be throwing a piece of porcelain with his "noble portrait" printed on it that he had worked so hard to slam against the wall.During the few days when he was bombarded, some media commented: "If things go on like this, the days when Wu Jinglian dare not speak are not far away." However, this stubborn old man did not choose to evade or give up, and he didn't seem to care about other people's worries at all.It was also the "Two Sessions" of that year. At a group discussion meeting of the economic circles of the CPPCC National Committee, members discussed the issue of fuel tax.Wu Jinglian said that China is a fuel-poor country, but the tax content in our fuel is lower than that of the United States. Doesn't this encourage people to buy cars and burn gasoline?However, the issue of fuel tax has been discussed for more than ten years and still cannot be negotiated. This is very abnormal.A member from the industrial and commercial circles interjected to remind him: "Old Wu, don't mention this opinion, you will be scolded." You don't have to be a human being, you can go home." Then, he continued. In September 2007, Wu Jinglian published "A Market Economy Calling for the Rule of Law", "collecting more than 50 articles, recording the author's thoughts and words since the turn of the century."Just when he got the new book and was planning to donate it to old friends, on October 28, news came that his old colleague and old leader Ma Hong passed away at the age of 87.He wrote in his memorial article: "Although Comrade Mahon fell into a coma last month after many years of illness, it was expected that he would soon leave us, and my heart is still very heavy to hear his sad news. "On July 22, 2005, two years ago, Xue Muqiao, another "market faction" veteran, passed away at the age of 101.They are all teachers and friends of Wu Jinglian for many years, and their friends have withered one after another, which naturally makes him feel sad from time to time in his old age, and at the same time, he feels a sense of urgency. In the preface to the book "Market Economy Calling for the Rule of Law", Wu Jinglian wrote full of worry: "China's reform has not been successful all the way. It reduces the resistance to reform and increases the assistance of reform. On the other hand, it enables the widespread existence of a rent-seeking environment characterized by the dual-track system, and the spread of corruption for personal gain.” He further said, “The two prospects for reform are seriously In front of us, one is the road of market economy under the rule of law under political civilization, and the other is the road of crony capitalism. In the battle between these two roads, the latter is coming aggressively. We must clearly understand the impact of this trend on us. The threat to the future of the nation and the future. In my opinion, the only way to overcome this danger lies in the joint efforts of the government and the opposition to promote reforms and build a fair market economy ruled by law... The delay in economic and political reforms has caused two Serious consequences, first, the Chinese economy continues to run wildly along the extensive growth model driven by capital and other resource inputs, which has caused a series of social and economic problems; second, rent-setting and rent-seeking activities, and the ensuing Corruption, the widening gap between rich and poor, and social anomie have intensified, all of which have aroused strong dissatisfaction from people from all walks of life." Later recorders of national history should have recorded it truthfully—in the second half of the 30-year Chinese reform, Chinese scholars have been vigilant and critical of the lagging of institutional reform.Of course, the great resistance to change and the slow progress make people feel deeply confused. The history that is happening is like seeing flowers in a fog, but it seems to be struggling in a clear cycle.As Wu Jinglian predicted in the great debate between 2004 and 2006, since the mode of economic growth has not been changed—“overheating, regulation, cooling, and slowing down, the reappearance of the next stage may be inevitable.” In 2007 In the future, China's economy has entered into such a cycle again, and the irresistible impulse to develop has surprised all observers.First, the stock market heated up rapidly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to a desperate 998.22 points in June 2005. Then, with the support of heavy liquidity, it turned to go up. In November 2006, it returned to 2000 points, and then sang all the way. By August 23, 2007, it broke through the 5,000-point mark in one fell swoop, and the total market value of China's stock market surpassed that of Japan, becoming the second in the world.Also hot is the real estate market. Housing prices in many cities have doubled, or even doubled or tripled. At the same time, a "specter" has also returned, and it is inflation that has not been seen since 1994.The slaughter price of live pigs rose sharply from 6 yuan/kg in 2006, to a high of 20 yuan/kg in early 2008, and the people screamed everywhere.In July 2007, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.6% year-on-year, breaking through the boundary of moderate inflation. In February, March and April 2008, it even broke through the boundary of moderate inflation rising by 8%.At the beginning of 2008, the central government announced macro-control and tightened monetary policy suddenly. The central bank raised interest rates five times in a short period of 100 days in an attempt to quickly cool down the overheated economy. A policy related to this is that the central government announced that starting from January 1, 2008, the "Labor Contract Law of the People's Republic of China" will be implemented, which puts forward very strict regulations on the dismissal of employees by enterprises. In economic theory circles, macro-control policies do not seem to have aroused little debate, although some have raised some objections to the degree of austerity.The "Labor Contract Law" has sparked considerable controversy. In many people's eyes, it is the government that has passed all the increase in labor costs on to the enterprises.However, no one expected that in 2008 China would undergo very dramatic and sudden changes. At the beginning of the year, apart from some worried economists, many officials and even ordinary people believed that this would be a year full of roses, and China’s reform and opening up has entered its 30th year—it can be said that it has entered the "year of its founding" , and on August 8, Beijing will host the Summer Olympics, which attracts worldwide attention.In the warm atmosphere, the century-old revival and "the rise of great powers" became an extremely exciting theme.As one of the important economists who participated in the whole process of reform from beginning to end, Wu Jinglian became the target of media pursuit and reporting. On January 12, 2008, shortly after the new year, under the auspices of Zhang Weiying, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, a dramatic scene took place: two old rivals who had not been on the same stage for 10 years—Wu Jinglian and Li Yining Appearing at the 10th Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum, the host invited two 79-year-olds and 80-year-old Professor Mao Yushi to the podium at the same time to discuss the achievements and losses of the past 30 years. This was a very meaningful gathering. Under the questioning of the host, they each stated their different understandings of the 30-year reform cause. The host asked: What are the three reforms that they are most satisfied with in the past 30 years? Wu Jinglian regards the three meetings of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China as three turning points in the history of reform: "The first is the Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee in 1984, which clarified that the commodity economy is the goal of reform; the second is the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee in 1994. The plenary session started the overall reform of the market economy; the third was the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1997, which established the reform of the basic economic system with the public ownership as the main body and the joint development of various ownership economies.” Li Yining said: "The first one is the household contract system in rural areas, which broke the previous unified agricultural situation under the People's Commune; the second major achievement is the shareholding reform of state-owned enterprises that started in the mid-to-late 1980s. market; the third is the rise of the private economy.” The host asked again, what were the three reforms that made them most regretful or did not meet their ideal expectations in the past 30 years. Li Yining answered first, he said: "First, the urban-rural dual system has basically not been touched, and farmers' income growth is slow; second, industry monopoly has not been eliminated during the reform of state-owned enterprises; third, due to financial difficulties or other reasons, the social security system It's going very slowly." Wu Jinglian's answer is: "The social security system is not perfect, the reform of the property rights system is not in place, and there are problems with the construction of the rule of law." Although these two heavyweight economists have considerable differences in many aspects, they have reached a consensus on one point, that is, in the 30 years of reform and opening up, the biggest regret is the failure of the reform of the social security system. On many occasions, they have repeatedly expressed the same opinion.Compared with Li Yining, Wu Jinglian's statement is more critical. He said: "I don't think the reason is financial difficulties, but because the department focuses too much on its own work convenience, its own rights, and its own interests. So I am willing to keep the old system, so I can delay it from being realized." The Peking University dialogue between Wu Jinglian and Li Yining has attracted a lot of attention from the media.These two Jiangsu people of the same age and nationality have had their first intersection of life since 1947. In the following decades, they have launched many tense debates. Every disagreement between them is the result of the Chinese economy. Crucial moments ahead.Wu Jinglian said: "I have been arguing with Lao Li on this issue (Chinese stock market) for a long time. We must promote an ethos. Economists uphold the principles of freedom of thought and academic independence, so we should form a This kind of atmosphere makes all kinds of different opinions, for one goal, which is to promote reform, to establish a market economy ruled by law, and to revitalize China." In the following year, in order to commemorate the 30th anniversary of reform and opening up, various domestic media reported and launched a series of selection activities. "Chinese Entrepreneur" initiated the selection of "Ten Economists with the Most Contributions in the Past 30 Years". In the end, Wu Jinglian ranked first with 67.14% of the votes. After that, Li Yining ranked third.In those festive days, almost all the reporters who came to interview Wu Jinglian wanted to get some more "summaries" and "experiences", but the old man didn't seem to have the intention of satisfying everyone's wishes.He said: "I am cautiously optimistic about China's development prospects on the one hand, but on the other hand I often feel a sense of crisis. Due to obstacles and opposition from certain social forces, the reform situation may reverse." This is of course a very stern admonition.In the April 2008 issue of "Xiaokang" magazine, he stated: "This obstruction and opposition mainly come from two aspects. On the one hand, due to the interference of certain vested interests who benefited from privileges during the transition period, Some important reforms have been hindered or distorted, which has intensified the phenomenon of corruption and other aristocratic capitalism; Against the direction of reform and opening up. If they use each other to reverse the general direction of reform, it may cause a reversal of the great situation.” Compared with the high-spirited Wu Jinglian in the 1990s, after entering the 21st century, he seems more and more anxious and "out of place". "Will China's reforms be good?" This question mark seems to be getting bigger and bigger in his eyes.This economist of human temperament and moral courage quotes again the opening line of the book he quoted 10 years ago, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times," our seasons here, "It is both a spring of hope and a winter of disappointment. Our future is boundless, but at the same time we feel hopeless. We run to heaven together, and we all go in another direction."