Chapter 25 Chapter 24 "Destroy the Market with One Word"

January 2001 was perhaps the most dramatic month in Wu Jinglian's life. On January 1st, CCTV broadcast the 2000 "CCTV China Economic Person of the Year" awards show. Wu Jinglian is undoubtedly the most dazzling winner. He ranked first among more than 2 million votes, and he was the first to appear , and received the warmest applause.Stock critic Shui Pi commented: "This result is unexpected because no matter at home or abroad, similar honors seem to be reserved for entrepreneurs who are all-powerful in the business world. This is also the case in this selection, and Wu Jinglian is the only economist. For everyone, with one pair of nine, this result is more or less innovative. On the other hand, think about it, with the value of Wu Jinglian, "Wu Market" and Professor Wu's consistent personality and style of study for decades, how can the other 9 To be able to stand shoulder to shoulder with them, to put it bluntly, without such market economy advocates as 'Wu Market', how could there be 9 people who are today's glory, this is a reasonable statement."

After a year of deliberation, the State Council and the China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to strengthen financial supervision and crack down on criminal activities in the securities market as the focus of financial work in 2001. On January 9th and 10th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission successively announced the investigation of two listed companies named Yi'an Technology and Zhongke Ventures. The reason was that they were suspected of manipulating stock prices, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were shocked. On January 11, Wu Jinglian went to Shanghai for a meeting. He met two CCTV reporters in the cabin of the plane. He asked casually, "Who are you going to interview in Shanghai?" The reporter replied, "I'm going to interview you." The next morning , at the hotel where he was staying, Wu Jinglian was interviewed on the issue of dealers manipulating stock prices.In this interview, he directly compared the stock market to a "casino without rules".

He said: "China's stock market is very much like a casino, and it is very irregular. There are also rules in the casino, for example, you can't read other people's cards. In our stock market, some people can read other people's cards, cheat and commit fraud. Sitting on the bank, speculating, and manipulating stock prices can be said to be the pinnacle. At present, one type of stock price manipulation in the Chinese market is intermediary agencies; the other type is certain insiders of listed companies, that is, people with inside information; the other type is the supply of funds They can be banks or other fund providers. They conspire together to absorb them at low prices. There are roughly two methods of hype: one is that affiliated institutions speculate and trade with each other, and the transactions are very frequent, and the price is speculated. Another way is that the relevant listed companies release good news, and then push up the stock price. When they find that there are small and medium-sized investors or big outside investors following up, they will sneak away and take the following Those who enter are trapped, and the stock price will continue to fall at this time.”

After lashing out at market makers and funds, Wu Jinglian pointed his finger at the positioning of China's capital market. He criticized: "Don't turn the stock market into a rent-seeking market, because the management positions the stock market as a financing service for state-owned enterprises." And the financing tools tilted towards state-owned enterprises enable companies that have obtained listing privileges to issue at a high premium and collect money from holders of tradable shares, thus turning the stock market into a huge 'rent-seeking field', so it must be denied' The policy of the stock market serving the financing of state-owned enterprises' and the practice of 'government support the market and enterprises circle money'."

On the evening of January 13, CCTV's "Dialogue" program rebroadcasted the tender "Feeling Wu Jinglian". On the evening of January 14, CCTV's "Half an Hour of Economics" featured Wu Jinglian's "Comment on the Banker" special program.The broadcast time of this program coincided with the unveiling of the "black hands" attacking the stock market, which provided a "basis" for the later saying that "Wu Jinglian ruined the market with one word". On January 14, the State Council held the "National Symposium on Banking, Securities, and Insurance Work." The deployment of government leaders on the need to bring criminals to justice was quietly spread in the industry.The market makers fled in a hurry, which caused the stock prices in the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets to plummet on January 15, and then fell for three consecutive days.Since May 19, 1999, China's capital market has been on the rise for a year and a half, and a turning point has appeared here.Half a month ago, the public opinion, which had been applauded, began to diverge. Some people took their anger out on Wu Jinglian and insulted him on the Internet, thinking that his remarks caused heavy losses to many investors, and he was the sinner of "destroying the market with one word".

On January 17, some commentators published "Scholar's Extremism and Reality Collision - Discussion with Mr. Wu Jinglian" in the "Financial Investment News", challenging Wu Jinglian's "destroying the market" remarks. The next day, someone immediately In response to the article "The Stock Market Falls and What to do with Mr. Wu", the debate began. On January 20, "Securities Market Weekly", which belongs to the same media company as "Caijing", published "How far is the Mood for Love in the Stock Market?" "The article refuted Wu Jinglian's views one by one.It boils down Wu's arguments into three, one is the "casino theory", the other is "the whole people speculate in stocks", and the third is "the price-earnings ratio is too high".The author’s point of view is: calling China’s developing securities market a “big casino” is obviously emotional; the phenomenon of “stock trading by all people” does not exist, and the so-called “all people” should only be aimed at more developed cities. As far as residents are concerned, the problem of overvaluation of stock prices of most companies is not particularly serious, and the stock prices of blue chip stocks, which account for 24% of the market value, may be undervalued.At the end, the article also asks with a slightly teasing tone: "Some people assume that if Wu Jinglian becomes the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, what will happen?"

Throughout late January, Wu Jinglian's name frequently appeared in all newspapers and websites across the country.Because it concerns the wallets of tens of millions of people—at that time, the number of accounts opened in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 58 million. This debate on the Chinese stock market quickly became a heated trend, becoming the most popular economic debate since the reform and opening up. . January 24, 2001 was Wu Jinglian's 71st birthday and also the first day of the Lunar New Year. He spent his first rare year amidst all kinds of flavors. After the Spring Festival, the stock market continued to fall, falling by 8% in just 4 days. After a short break of 10 days, the cannonballs of the debate were rumbling again.

On February 8, "Securities Market Weekly" launched another attack, publishing an "Wu Jinglian article" entitled "Nine Questions about Wu Jinglian". We were declined by Mr. Wu's wife and secretary, so we couldn't make the trip. The outline of the interview is now published here, and we are waiting for Mr. Wu's answer, hoping to gain useful insights from all parties." The nine questions raised by the author are: If the Chinese stock market is not even a regulated casino, is it necessary for it to exist?How do speculators create social wealth? What is the essential difference between "buying stocks" and "speculating stocks"?There are also many "weird analyzes" in the mature market, including various technical analysis such as wave theory, do you think they are normal? "When water is clear, there will be no fish", do you think this saying applies to the stock market?How do you view the speculative nature of the US securities market?If time can be turned back, do you think there is a less costly path for China's securities market?You once said that you don’t speculate or buy stocks. If investors are as conscious as you are, what will the stock market look like after 10 years of development?If you are the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, can you fully implement your theory?

Although he has experienced many battles in the past many years, Wu Jinglian still seemed a little unprepared in the face of this fierce questioning from public opinion.However, a bigger attack is yet to come. On the afternoon of February 11, five economists—Li Yining, Xiao Zhuoji, Dong Fu, Wu Xiaoqiu, and Han Zhiguo jointly held a press conference at the Beijing Science and Technology Convention and Exhibition Center, and held a public debate with Wu Jinglian. "Pushed to the climax. Among these five people, Li Yining was a member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, deputy director of the Finance and Economics Committee of the National People's Congress, and dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. He was a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a professor of the School of Economics of Peking University. Wu Xiaoqiu was the director of the Finance and Securities Research Institute of Renmin University of China at the time, and Han Zhiguo was the director of the Beijing Banghe Wealth Research Institute.

The symposium was hosted by Professor Xiao Zhuoji on the spot, and the organizer of the event was Han Zhiguo, who was once the director of the economic editorial office of the "Chinese Social Science" magazine. In 1991, Wu Jinglian's famous "On Planning and Market as a Resource Allocation Method was published with his bold support.But at this time, he became a fierce opponent of Wu Jinglian. At the beginning of the symposium, he said: "Now the stock market has reached a critical juncture. If Wu Jinglian is the winner of this debate, it will be a big winner in China's capital market." A disaster." Therefore, "we must meet with reporters to fully counter Wu Jinglian's various remarks about the capital market."At the symposium, five professors took turns to speak and express their views.

About "National People's Stock Market Theory".Dong Fu's opinion is "I think it is a good thing for all people to speculate in stocks."Wu Xiaoqiu objected to this formulation. He believed that "stock trading by the whole people is likely to arouse the resentment of decision-makers. This is an inflammatory and disturbing term."Han Zhiguo believes that "stock trading for all is a necessary practice for China to embrace economic globalization, and it is a prominent manifestation of deepening reform and social progress. Just imagine, without stock trading for all, where will the money for state-owned enterprises come from." About "No Rules Casino Theory".Xiao Zhuoji criticized: "It is understandable for ordinary people to say that, but it is not serious for serious economists to say that, which will damage the image, which is regrettable." He further deduced: "If the stock market is regarded as a gambling market, then The 58 million stockholders are gamblers, the government is the owner of the casino, and the stocks issued by more than 1 to 200 listed companies are the chips. Don't have an ulterior motive". About the "price-earnings ratio is too high."Xiao Zhuoji believes: "When looking at the price-earnings ratio, we must consider that we are a country with insufficient capital and insufficient supply, and the prices of commodities with insufficient supply will naturally be high. We must also consider related factors. It is wrong to only consider the price-earnings ratio without considering the interest rate. Therefore, the price-earnings ratio is very difficult. Make an international comparison." Dong Fu made a comparison: "If you compare the price-earnings ratio, our price-earnings ratio is much lower than Japan's, and Japan's price-earnings ratio is 80 times or even 100 times." About the "bookmaker".Li Yining, who once served as the leader of the drafting team of the "Investment Fund Law", said: "It is not true that the Chinese stock market is said to be in the dark because of the emergence of several dealers... First of all, it must be confirmed that the investment fund industry has achieved great development in the past few years. The mainstream It’s good, it’s not as dark as some people say.” Wu Xiaoqiu said: “What is a banker? According to my understanding, a banker is the main force, that is, a big player. It cannot be said that there is a problem with a lot of money. The US market also has a main force. Funds cost hundreds of billions, but what is it if they are not bankers? The role of the main force is to ensure the normal flow of the market. Without the main force and without the banker, the securities market will only be a stagnant pool.” Han Zhiguo said: “There is no market without speculation, and there is no market without bubbles. There is no banker and no market." The five professors unanimously agreed that the biggest difference between them and Wu Jinglian "is actually the question of whether to have the stock market." In their view, China's stock market is a child who is only 10 years old, and a child who is sick.When a child is sick, he should not be strangled to death or thrown away, but should be prescribed the right medicine after diagnosing the cause, so that he can grow up healthily.Xiao Zhuoji, the moderator of the symposium, said in summary, "Through this discussion, I think there are 10 issues that can reach consensus."These consensuses include: the stock market is not a casino, not a zero-sum game, but an important way to create wealth, and the development of the stock market is the need for economic development; China's stock market has not only general functions, but also special functions, which is to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises; It should be standardized; the price-earnings ratio must be viewed objectively and dialectically; speculation in the stock market is inevitable; it is a good thing for all people to speculate in stocks; an attitude of caring and loving the stock market should be adopted instead of simply blaming, suppressing, and abusing attitudes, etc. In this symposium, even Wu Jinglian's motivation and professional ability were questioned.Wu Xiaoqiu said: "It is a very emotional catharsis to say that the stock market is a casino. This kind of generalization is not a professional rational spirit. I agree." Han Zhiguo said to Wu Jinglian: "He has a major flaw, that is, he only admires the real economy, and evaluates the virtual economy from the standpoint of the real economy. .” The next day, the news of "Five Great Economists Fighting against Wu Jinglian" appeared prominently in the national media. It was not only very important, but also very entertaining. "Wu Jinglian has been talking about the 'market' for so many years, why does it arouse so many people's dissatisfaction now? Where is the problem? This may be the most intriguing thing." An assistant professor named Xue Yong from the Department of History of American University proposed A pointed question. Since January 14, Wu Jinglian has not appeared in the media, and Zhou Nan helped him reject all requests for interviews.At this time, he was in Shanghai, lecturing for the EMBA class of China Europe International Business School, 4 days a week, 7 and a half hours a day.This tuberculosis patient who had been weak since he was a child was unexpectedly healthy and healthy in his later years, which even surprised him a little.The storm of public opinion in Beijing certainly disturbed his mood. What is different from the past is that this time he seems to be facing a situation where arrows are flying at random. The so-called "right and wrong" are not as clear-cut as they used to be. The more you argue, the more confused you become.He's not one for drama. Four days after the symposium held by the five professors, on February 15, Wu Jinglian appeared at the "Seminar on Chinese Companies Listed in Hong Kong" at the China World Hotel in Beijing. Facing questions from many reporters, he did not speak.After giving an academic report entitled "Improving the Governance Structure of Listed Companies", he quietly "evacuated" the venue before the meeting was over, under the "escort" of the conference security and his entourage.However, at the entrance of a very unobtrusive restaurant in the Grand Hotel, he was stopped by the reporter of "China Business Daily" who was chasing after him while he was talking on his mobile phone. The reporter asked: "How do you feel about five professors meeting together to refute your point of view?" Wu Jinglian said: "I didn't look carefully. This is not my problem alone. Let everyone judge this matter. It mainly depends on the correctness of opinions. Or not. If the correct opinion prevails, it will have a positive effect. Now it is up to everyone to judge who is positive and who is negative... No matter what I say now, someone will criticize it, and it is specifically aimed at what I said As soon as I said it, someone would criticize it. In fact, there have been criticisms in the publications... I can’t reply anymore, because if I reply again, our Chinese company will not even be able to do well in overseas markets.” The entire conversation was only 10 minutes long.The reporter speculated in the published manuscript: "When the interests of most investors conflict with China's stock market, those with vested interests will inevitably safeguard their own interests, and the Chinese stock market, which is mixed with many factors, will The development of new things should be protected in principle. However, if the interests of small and medium-sized investors are damaged for this reason, such debates will not have any substantive promotion. After the end of the song, the problems it caused will be truly resolved Is it? At this time, Wu Jinglian's silence may have a reason for his silence." Anyone who is familiar with Wu Jinglian knows that this gentle-looking southerner actually has a particularly stubborn personality, and it is impossible for him to give up or compromise easily.During that time, he lectured during the day and shut himself in his room at night writing papers and editing old work.Shanghai Far East Publishing House suggested that he sort out his thoughts on the capital market into a book, and he agreed. In March, the national "Two Sessions" were held in Beijing as scheduled. Wu Jinglian, who was in the whirlpool of public opinion, had "nowhere to escape." As soon as he appeared in the Great Hall of the People, he was surrounded by hundreds of reporters.Media reports said: "At every discussion meeting of the Economic Group of the CPPCC, as long as Wu Jinglian spoke, dozens of microphones and tape recorders were handed over to him. It brought disturbance to the discussions at the meeting." The news team of the "two sessions" who were overwhelmed by the disturbance had to make an exception and made an arrangement, which notified the national media: Wu Jinglian would hold a personal press conference at the Jingfeng Hotel on the afternoon of the 9th. At the reception, Wu Jinglian said as soon as he sat down, "You can ask any questions." The core question of the reporters is actually only one: "Your attention to the stock market is largely for the interests of small and medium shareholders, but some small and medium investors blame you for losing money. How do you deal with it? What do you want to say to the shareholders most now?" Wu Jinglian replied: "Sometimes the phenomenon and the essence are not very separated. From a certain period of time, the hype of the market maker will indeed make small and medium investors make money, but it is impossible in the entire cycle. Pure speculation or and Pure speculation that has nothing to do with investment cannot create material wealth, it is redistributed among the pockets of different owners. One of the most prominent situations is when a large amount of bank funds and government funds enter the market, quite a few people will get rich. Problem It is the bank's funds and the government's funds that will have to be repaid sooner or later. Who will it end up with? For example, last year a large amount of bank credit funds entered the market, which can push up the stock price. In this way, not only the bankers can make money, but small and medium investors There is also a lot of money. But this money is empty, what is behind it? If it is backed by material wealth, the government takes this money, the money of the people of the whole country, and invests it, then it is the people of the whole country. contribution...Professor Dong Fu also said, 'There is intense short-term speculation in China's securities market, which is what we usually call speculation.' If (stock speculation) is such a concept, how can material wealth be created? I don’t understand. It’s a great thing to say that ‘stock trading for all’ is a great thing, I don’t understand.” Wu Jinglian also talked about his differences with some scholars, saying: "People often use a dichotomy to look at the social contradictions in China's transition period, that is, conservatives and reformers. This issue is not so simple. In Among comrades-in-arms for reform, some people will be divided during the reform process. There are problems of understanding and interests.” After speaking these words, Wu Jinglian once again quoted the famous saying of the Czech revolutionist Fucik in the book with great emotion: "People, I love you, you should be vigilant!" On March 20, Wu Jinglian went south to Jiangsu and gave a lecture entitled "China's Economic Development Trend" at Nanjing University, continuing to expound his views: "China's stock market bubble economy exists, and I still stick to my point of view. It violates the criminal law, and the banker also violates the civil law, and the banker and the listing rules do not match, but now no one takes it seriously, and some large media can openly discuss "going with the banker". The status quo of the stock market that treats the law as a trifle is too abnormal. If others don’t say it, I’m old, so I don’t say it for nothing.” At the same time, he opposed the government’s “rescue” of the stock market by supporting the market. On March 24, Wu Jinglian participated in a symposium held by the "Dushu" magazine in Beijing, and then talked about the anomalies in the stock market and corruption in the economic circle. He said: "Roughly since the mid-1980s, we can gradually see two extreme tendencies: one end advocates opening the door for a few people to gain power and wealth in the name of reform, and it actually supports the establishment of elite capital. At the other end, under the banner of socialism, a return to centralized planned economy and "left" policies are advocated. The two use each other as the basis for their existence and reinforce each other. Therefore, the problem becomes very complicated. These two The roads are all forked. Due to the characteristics of "path dependence" in institutional changes, the farther you go on the wrong path, the higher the cost of exiting, and you will even be locked in this path. Once locked, it will be like North (the 1993 Nobel Laureate in Economics) said that unless there is a huge social shock, it will be difficult to quit.” So is this complicated situation caused by the lack of reform theory?Wu Jinglian's answer was no. He believes: "In the past China's reform process, we often encountered such a situation-the right and wrong of the problem have long been clearly revealed, and it does not require a high degree of economic theoretical literacy to draw the correct conclusion, but it is still contrary to common sense. judgments and wrong decisions, which are often related to the interest orientation of the commentators. For example, the choice of reform plan implies whether to choose a plan that is conducive to rent-seeking activities or to choose a plan that can eliminate rent-seeking conditions. It should have been clear, but some people have used various specious arguments to defend the former and oppose the latter. For example, the debate about whether to liberalize prices in the late 1980s, and the debate about the stock market in recent years, in my opinion That’s pretty much the case.” Wu Jinglian's remarks are very severe, and he directly targets some famous economists, which makes people even more resentful. Also in late March, the book "Ten Years of Different Talks about the Stock Market" was published.Not only did it appear in major bookstores across the country, it was even placed on newsstands on the streets, which had never been seen before.Wu Jinglian specially wrote the 20,000-word preface "Seven Questions on the Stock Market", which divided the debates between the five professors and him into seven points, and refuted them one by one.He decided to conclude the argument with this, and never spoke again. In this foreword, Wu Jinglian further emphasized his concerns about disordered stock market, excessive speculation and bubble inflation.He believes that the current average turnover rate of stocks in China's stock market is too high - in 2000, the Shanghai stock market's turnover rate reached 499.1%, which is obviously in a state of excessive speculation. If there is no parallel investment activity, pure speculation cannot make material wealth Increase.He wrote: "It seems that my assumptions about the functional positioning of the stock market do have principled differences with some securities experts. For example, Professor Li Yining once had a vivid metaphor of "passing flowers by beating drums" to characterize the stock market in his mind. He said that the stock market is You may win all or you may lose all, just like the game of drumming and passing flowers, if the drum stops, whoever gets the 'flower' will be caught, but you still have a chance to pass the 'flower' when the next round of drumming resumes." He could not agree with the view that "the national wealth can be increased by playing the game of 'drumming and passing flowers'". He also seems to be particularly concerned about Wu Xiaoqiu and Han Zhiguo's criticism of his motivation and professional ability, so he specifically made some comments on "professional spirit" and "civilian consciousness".He said: "Honestly speaking, I take the critics' accusation that I speak too much for small and medium-sized investors and have too much 'civilian consciousness' as a kind of praise. I am afraid that my work cannot deserve such praise... Economics is an empirical science. The first thing economists need to figure out is the question of "what". However, economics involves people's material interests, so it is often a very realistic science. In addition to revealing the truth of things In most cases, it is necessary to further conduct applied research and put forward normative opinions. In my opinion, this is the minimum professionalism, and it is also the nature of economists to pay attention to social justice and the fate of people in society. Minute." At the end of the "Preface", he wrote: "Some of the criticisms I mentioned above come from my old colleagues and friends. They have provided me with help and support in the past to achieve the common goal of market economic reform. The memory is still fresh, and it is still touching when I look back. But I always feel that the struggle to establish a market economy is not just for ourselves, or even for our generation. When we, as the lucky ones of the times, enjoy the first When a batch of achievements are made, it should not be forgotten that there are still many ordinary people who have not even received the equal opportunities they deserve to seek a decent life. Don’t we feel it’s our duty to do something for them when there’s no other way out in a highly unregulated stock market?” In hindsight, the big debate between Wu Jinglian and Professor Wu was destined to be a battle without conclusion from the very beginning.Arguments from both sides overlap.Through this debate, a fact has been presented more clearly: after entering the new century, the game of interests has surpassed ideology to some extent and has become the first indicator for observing the direction of economic policy. The term "reform" has sometimes become a tool that can be used.On this point, Wu Jinglian is obviously sober. While economists are arguing fiercely, China's stock market has experienced ups and downs.After the sharp drop in January 2001, the rising trend resumed. A few months later, the stock market returned to a high level. On June 14, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2?245.42 points. Method".As the market worried about the sharp increase in the supply of securities, coupled with the proliferation of stock price manipulation and insider trading, investors' confidence was seriously hit, and the stock price fell all the way, starting a big bear market that lasted for several years. By June 2005, the Shanghai Stock Exchange The index fell to the lowest point of 998 points, which lasted for 48 months.