Chapter 17 Standing in the Future Invest Today

In a person's life, should he invest in "opportunities" or "trends"?This is also a big problem.Trends are big opportunities, and opportunities can also be said to be short-term trends.But the difference between the two is still very large.Opportunities are often visible. For example, there are not many differences between people when there is a glass of water to drink immediately. Trends are often invisible. Everyone sees differently, and people will use different methods to see the future.How a person looks at today from the future and arranges the present from the future depends on how he sees the future.Smart people, successful people, and people who have achieved great success have all seen this trend clearly, and this trend has finally become a reality according to his expectations, and he can do what he should do in advance, so achieved success.

Four or five years ago, many people firmly believed that the Internet would become a mainstream (trend) in China.However, when the Internet bubble burst, some people thought it was impossible, saying that China’s Internet had three major problems. The first was the lack of credit and could not solve the payment problem; the second was the inability to solve the logistics problem; the third was the use of the Internet in China There are too few people because the average education level is low.So many people give up the Internet.But you see, anyone who insists on doing it and believes in this trend will become popular today.Because now these three problems have all been solved: the number of people surfing the Internet in China is almost the same as that in the United States; the payment problem has been solved long ago; the distribution problem, the Chinese use stupid methods, and Chinese manpower is cheap, and I can send it to you by riding a bicycle , China has Chinese native tricks. Among the 100 influential outstanding people in the world in 2007, there was Ma Huateng (of Tencent) in China.Why is Tencent popular?Tencent is very sticky, with 200 million people on it.He is standing in the future, standing on a trend, he did it first, so he succeeded.At that time, some people thought that this trend was impossible. Many people ran away, and the remaining "fools" carried it.Therefore, people who are successful on the Internet now are betting on the future trend.

The same is true in traditional industries.I remember that in 1993, when the real estate bubble in Hainan burst, we returned to Beijing. Many people advised us not to engage in real estate, because China’s real estate was not good enough and we couldn’t do it. We should quickly change to this or that. Here is an opportunity, and there is another opportunity.But we just persisted and survived. After 1999, real estate became a mainstream and a pillar industry, so we developed accordingly.This is betting on the trend.In addition, why can we survive?We have always believed that we must learn well, that is to say, under the market economy, we should emphasize good people, good deeds, and good money, and encourage ourselves to learn advanced, sugar daddy, and follow the right path. In short, we must learn well, because this is also a trend.

I think that if the market economy goes on like this, good people should have the most and the biggest opportunities in the end.Now more and more people in the market are giving a premium to good people (moral premium), and the capital market has also begun to give a premium to good people.When you go to the China Securities Regulatory Commission to approve things, Vanke may complete the approval in three to four months, Gemdale and Vantone can complete the approval in four to five months, and the usual average time is seven to nine months.The reason why Vanke is faster than us is that it was listed earlier, has credibility in the capital market and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is a "good boy", and some review steps will be omitted.We and Gemdale are also doing well, with few defects and quick approval.But if it is a company with historical stains, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will screen it out, and the approval process will take half a year or a year, and some may not pass the approval at all.For example, there is a company that has been unable to raise funds for three years. The China Securities Regulatory Commission saw that there was a bad record and said that as long as it is still the boss, it can’t do it and can’t give him a chance.

Now, as time goes by, when a good company issues new shares in the market, investors and funds are willing to give you a high price when they buy them.According to international experience, a good company (with a relatively clear governance structure) probably has a premium of 5% to 10%. In other words, if you are a good person and run a good company, your stock will be 5% to 10% more expensive than others . We, as a company, should invest most in trends.Investing in trends means investing in strategy, because your strategy is based on the trend.The so-called strategic orientation refers to persistent efforts in one direction to accumulate your core competitiveness.Opportunity orientation means doing this today and doing that tomorrow.The ancients said that "a gentleman establishes a constant will, and a villain always establishes a will."Li Hengzhi is strategy-oriented, and constant Lizhi is opportunity-oriented. Do this today, do that tomorrow, say you want to join the army today, and study literature tomorrow.According to historical experience, the investment with high return on investment is the investment trend.In other words, a company must have a strategy, use the strategy to guide us, and develop our business according to a trend.

However, the difficulty in judging trends lies in how you see the future.I see the future in three ways: one is to regard other people's history as our present and future.Beijing’s current per capita GDP is $6,000, and New York’s is $60,000. Then we regard the history of others’ per capita GDP from $6,000 to $60,000 as our future.This is the easiest way.Another method is to do logical research and deduction, conduct logical analysis based on the existing knowledge of human historical development, study economics, politics, and law, and draw a judgment on the trend.The last method is to perceive, to perceive the future with perception and experience.It is best to use all three methods at the same time, and finally combine them to form an overall view of the future.

Therefore, if we want to see the future clearly, we must be diligent, we must know the history of others, we must have rich knowledge, and at the same time we must have good experience and correct values.Only in this way can we see the future and stand in the future to arrange today.Now that the real estate market is under regulation, we have to analyze what is the trend and what is the future.I think that in the future, when the per capita GDP reaches US$10,000 or US$20,000, commercial real estate will become a more important product market, and real estate finance will be well developed, and direct financing of real estate will become a mainstream.In the past three years, the concentration of the real estate market has greatly increased. The market value of the top 10 real estate companies in the A-share market has increased from 2 to 3 billion to more than 10 billion, and the number one has exceeded 200 billion. The concentration changes very quickly.These are the trends of the future.If we formulate strategies against this trend, we will surely win.In short, in the last few years, good people must be able to survive, and smart and good people must survive.This is the trend.Therefore, we will never do things that are prone to mistakes. Excessive trickery, excessive speculation, excessive flexibility, and excessive violation of regulations must never be done.

We want to fight for no lawsuits in the next 10 years, even if we sue others.Let others tell you that you are a "bad guy"; you tell others that you are a "stupid guy". In this world, we are neither "stupid" nor "bad guy".The highest state of investment is actually to discover things that others have not seen, such as trends.A stone is Pu, and if you haven’t seen the jade inside, a smart person will take the stone back and chisel out the jade by himself; a cultural relic is buried in the ground, but you don’t find it, but someone else finds it, take it back, and it will be destroyed. become something of value.Therefore, the highest level of investment is to see the value that others have not seen, that is, to discover value.When you find value, the second job is to create this value, make this value stand out in the market, make the actual value recognized by the market, and finally give you a good price, so you get a good return .The highest state of investment is three sentences, that is, discovering value, creating value and realizing value.Therefore, to do a good job in investing, you have to practice all your skills, and you have to be able to discover the true value of a thing in a place where others can't see it, such as the value of trends, the value of the company, the value of people, and time. value etc.As long as you can discover these values, you will be able to obtain high returns in the market in the end.